Market sentiments and Nifty 50 probable movement
Market Participant Positioning – What the Data Clearly Says
Futures Segment (Index Futures)
FII:
Persistent and aggressive net short positioning
➤ Current cumulative FII futures OI ≈ –1.38 lakh contracts
➤ No meaningful short covering seen even on pullbacks
DII:
Consistently net long (≈ +41k contracts)
➤ Acting as a stabiliser, not trend initiator
Pro Traders:
Marginal long / neutral
➤ Tactical, not conviction buying
📌 Inference (Futures):
Trend control remains with FIIs (short bias). DII longs are absorbing supply, preventing sharp breakdown but not reversing trend.
Options Segment
FII Option OI: Deeply negative (≈ –3.18 lakh)
Pro Option OI: Also negative (≈ –2.03 lakh)
Cumulative Option OI: ≈ –5.22 lakh
📌 Inference (Options):
Heavy call writing + put unwinding, indicating range control from above and fear of sustained upside.
Cash Market
FII Cash: –₹4,346 Cr (selling continues)
DII Cash: +₹3,935 Cr (supportive but defensive)
📌 Inference (Cash):
This is not a distribution-to-accumulation phase, it is distribution with absorption.
2️⃣ Chart-Based Technical Read (1-Hour Timeframe)
Trend & Structure
Price below EMA 50 / 100 / 200
Ichimoku Cloud above price → strong overhead supply
VWAP acting as intraday ceiling
Bollinger Bands compressed → energy build-up
Momentum Indicators
RSI ~45 → weak, below bullish zone
MACD: Negative but flattening → bearish momentum slowing
ADX ~18 → Non-trending / range phase
📌 Inference (Chart):
Market is not bullish, but selling pressure is tiring → classic bearish consolidation.
3️⃣ Market Sentiment Summary
Aspect
Reading
Broader Sentiment
Bearish to Neutral
Trend Control
FIIs (Short)
Support Provider
DIIs (Cash + Futures)
Volatility Bias
Compression → Expansion likely
Breakout Probability
Low upside, higher downside
4️⃣ Nifty 50 Probable Movement (Next 1–3 Sessions)
Primary Scenario (High Probability – ~65%)
Range with downward bias
Resistance Zone:
👉 25780 – 25850 (EMA cluster + option writers)
Support Zone:
👉 25580 – 25520
📌 Expect intraday pullbacks to be sold near resistance.
Bearish Expansion Scenario (~25%)
If 25520 breaks with volume + OI addition:
Fast move toward 25380 – 25250
FIIs likely to add fresh shorts
Short Covering Bounce (~10%)
Only if:
Price sustains above 25850
Futures OI declines + Call OI unwinds
Then:
Bounce toward 25950 – 26000
Not trend reversal, only relief rally
5️⃣ Actionable Derivative View (Professional Bias)
Positional Bias:
👉 Sell on rise until 25850 is decisively crossed
Intraday Bias:
👉 Mean-reversion trades inside 25580–25800
Avoid:
🚫 Aggressive long futures
🚫 Naked long calls
6️⃣ Final Verdict (One-Line)
Nifty is in a bearish consolidation phase — FIIs firmly short, DIIs cushioning the fall. Expect range trading with downside risk unless 25850 is reclaimed decisively.
Suggested strategy
For a 25900 CE BUY + 25800 CE SELL (i.e., Bear Call Spread):
1️⃣ Key Rule (Very Important)
👉 If Nifty drops to 25,400, both calls expire worthless.
So the spread hits MAX PROFIT.
But
👉 Max profit does NOT depend on how much Nifty falls.
It depends only on the net credit received while entering the spread.
2️⃣ Max Profit Formula
That’s it.
No further gain below 25,800.
3️⃣ Practical Example (Typical Intraday Premiums)
Assume (illustrative):
25800 CE SELL @ ₹72
25900 CE BUY @ ₹38
➡️ Net Credit = ₹34
✅ Max Profit
This full profit is realized anywhere below 25,800, including 25,400.
4️⃣ Payoff Summary
Nifty Level at Expiry
Outcome
Above 25,900
Max Loss
Between 25,800–25,900
Partial P/L
Below 25,800 (incl. 25,400)
MAX PROFIT = Net Credit
5️⃣ Important Risk Reminder
Do NOT wait for expiry intraday
Exit once 70–80% of credit is achieved
Gamma risk increases sharply near close
6️⃣ Professional Conclusion
If Nifty falls to 25,400, your 25800–25900 Bear Call Spread will give full profit,
which equals the net premium collected, not more.
Anish J Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
