NIFTY50 Derivative Desk Research Report Based on Data up to 18 Jun 2026
Executive Summary
NIFTY closed at 24,168 after a six-session recovery from 23,161. The derivatives data suggests improving bullish momentum but not an aggressive trending market. FIIs continue to hold a very large net short index futures position (-221,476), while DIIs remain strongly net long (+69,597). The persistent FII shorts alongside rising prices indicate ongoing short covering rather than fresh directional long accumulation.
Derivatives Positioning
Cumulative futures net improved from -199,845 (11 Jun) to -155,409 (18 Jun), confirming reduction of bearish positioning. FII option positioning remains heavily negative (-803,342) but has moderated. Positive daily futures and option OI variations indicate fresh participation without excessive leverage.
Cash Market Flows
FIIs sold Rs 1,025 crore on 18 Jun while DIIs bought Rs 3,516 crore, continuing domestic institutional support. Cash selling by FIIs has not translated into renewed futures aggression.
Volatility
Realized volatility has eased after the June breakout, supporting a gradual bullish bias rather than panic buying. Lower volatility generally favours option writers until a fresh catalyst emerges.
Global Context
US indices corrected modestly while European markets remained resilient. Global risk sentiment is neutral to mildly supportive and does not presently negate domestic derivative strength.
Trading View Bias:
Mild Bullish.
Support: 24,080-24,120, then 23,950.
Resistance: 24,250-24,320, then 24,450.
Expected range: 24,050-24,320.
Probability:
Bullish continuation 60%,
Range-bound 25%,
Bearish reversal 15%.
Risk Factors
Aggressive FII short re-addition, weak global markets, INR weakness, or unexpected macro news could trigger profit booking.
Conclusion
The weight of evidence favours a buy-on-dips approach while above 24,080. A decisive move above 24,320 could extend towards 24,450-24,550. Failure to hold 24,080 would expose 23,950-23,900.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Derivatives Head
indirecttaxindia.in
