Let’s stitch OI structure + daily chart + strike-wise positioning + global tech risk-off into one clean market view.
1️⃣ Derivatives Positioning – Clear Message
🔴 Futures OI (Trend Bias)
FIIs: Persistently net short index futures (−1.44 lakh on 05-02), no meaningful short covering.
DIIs: Consistently net long, but not strong enough to offset FII pressure.
PROs: Also net short → confirms institutional bearish consensus.
👉 Cumulative futures OI remains deeply negative (−1.03 lakh)
This is trend-following short positioning, not hedged neutrality.
🔴 Options OI (Market Expectation)
FIIs option OI net: −3.66 lakh
PRO option OI net: −16,912
Cumulative option OI: −3.83 lakh
👉 This is aggressive call writing + put unwinding, not a volatility hedge.
2️⃣ Strike-wise Structure (10 Feb Expiry)
From your screenshot:
Max Pain: ~25650
Heavy Call OI: 25700 / 25800
Put OI concentration: 25500–25600
PCR: ~0.65 (bearish)
Interpretation:
Upside capped hard near 25700–25800
Support fragile below 25600
Any bounce is likely to be sold into, not chased.
3️⃣ NIFTY Daily Chart – Technical Context
📉 Price Action
Lower highs structure intact
Price below key moving averages
No impulsive bullish candle, only reactive bounces
📊 Momentum
RSI ~52 → not oversold
MACD still negative zone → trend not reversed
Bollinger mid-band acting as resistance
👉 This is a weak corrective bounce inside a broader downtrend
4️⃣ Global Cue – Tech Slump (Bloomberg)
US tech-led selling
Bonds rising → risk-off
Nasdaq momentum weakening (you already flagged stoch fall)
👉 FIIs typically extend shorts in India when US tech breaks, not cover.
5️⃣ Net Market Sentiment (Putting It All Together)
Component
Signal
Futures OI
🔴 Bearish
Options OI
🔴 Bearish
Strike Map
🔴 Upside capped
Chart Structure
🔴 Weak
Global Tech
🔴 Risk-off
Overall Sentiment: BEARISH → RANGE-DOWN BIAS
6️⃣ Probable NIFTY Path (Next 1–3 Sessions)
📉 Primary Scenario (Higher Probability ~65%)
Resistance: 25680–25720
Drift lower towards:
25500 → 25380 → 25250
Any gap-up likely to be sold aggressively
🔁 Alternate Scenario (~35%)
Short-covering bounce if:
NIFTY sustains above 25750
FIIs reduce futures shorts (not visible yet)
Even then → 25800–25850 = sell zone
7️⃣ Strategy Bias (Directional, not advice)
Index traders:
Prefer sell-on-rise till 25750 holds
Options:
Bear Call Spreads / Call writing above 25700
Avoid naked long calls
Risk management:
Watch US tech overnight + FII futures change
📌 Bottom Line
This is not a bottoming structure.
It is a distribution phase with controlled downside, driven by:
Persistent FII shorts
Call-heavy OI
Global risk-off cues
Unless FIIs start covering futures, any bounce remains corrective.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
