The market is exhibiting a mixed sentiment, with bearish bias on indices but selective stock optimism among institutional participants. Below is a detailed outlook on Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty.
Nifty 50 Analysis
1. Market Sentiment:
Bearish bias with volatility as FIIs & DIIs are hedging aggressively in index options.
Technical weakness seen with bearish candlestick formation and a break below 50 & 200-day EMAs.
Short-term support intact, with the index holding above 10 & 20-day EMAs and the midline of the Bollinger Bands.
2. Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 23,727 – 23,862
Immediate Support: 23,427 – 23,510
Critical Support: 23,430 (50-Week EMA)
Breakout Levels:
Above 23,862 → Short-term recovery likely.
Below 23,427 → Sharp decline expected.
3. Probable Movement:
Range-bound trading between 23,427 – 23,862 unless a breakout occurs.
Downside risk remains due to heavy put long and call short positioning by FIIs & DIIs.
Short-term recovery possible if FIIs unwind index hedges.
4. Trading Strategy:
For Bulls: Buy near 23,430 – 23,500 with a stop-loss below 23,400.
For Bears: Sell near 23,800 – 23,860 with a stop-loss above 23,880.
Options Traders:
Bear Put Spread (Buy 23,600 PE, Sell 23,400 PE) if sentiment remains bearish.
Iron Condor (Sell 23,400 PE & 23,900 CE) if range-bound action continues.
Bank Nifty Analysis
1. Market Sentiment:
Facing downside pressure due to bearish stance of FIIs & DIIs in index futures & options.
Resilience observed, as Bank Nifty is holding above 50 & 200-day EMAs and upper Bollinger Band.
Buying interest at lower levels, indicated by long lower shadows on daily candles.
2. Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 50,516 – 50,765
Immediate Support: 49,958 – 50,112
Fibonacci Resistance: 51,153 – 51,939
Fibonacci Support: 47,875 – 46,078
Breakout Levels:
Above 50,765 → Upside momentum towards 51,153.
Below 49,958 → Deeper correction likely towards 48,500.
Probable Movement:
Likely to trade between 49,958 – 50,765 unless a breakout occurs.
High volatility expected, as institutions hedge aggressively.
Upside potential remains if FIIs cover shorts.
4. Trading Strategy:
For Bulls: Buy near 50,000 with a stop-loss below 49,800.
For Bears: Sell near 50,750 with a stop-loss above 50,900.
Options Traders:
Bull Call Spread (Buy 50,500 CE, Sell 50,800 CE) for upside breakout.
Straddle/Strangle for high volatility plays.
Final Takeaway:
Nifty 50 is bearish to range-bound, while Bank Nifty is showing resilience.
Downside risk is higher, but FIIs' stock-specific bullishness could support the market.
Volatility will remain high, making option strategies more effective than directional trades.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Securities analyst
Disclaimer: content is for educational purposes only. For investment and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
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