Market Insights
The broader market sentiment remains bearish, with both Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty trading near the lower end of Bollinger Bands, signaling continued weakness. However, the oversold RSI levels (Nifty at 22.32, Bank Nifty at 35.59) indicate potential for a technical rebound or short-covering rally, though any upside may remain limited due to persistent selling pressure.
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) at 0.81 shows slight improvement in sentiment but remains below 1, signaling cautious optimism and no strong bullish conviction.
The India VIX remains subdued at 13.76, which suggests low volatility and controlled fear, but it may spike if Nifty breaks below 22,000, triggering fresh selling.
Probable Movement – Nifty 50 (Current: 22,119)
Bearish Scenario:
Breakdown below 22,000 can intensify selling towards 21,900 – 21,800 zones, as confirmed by high Put OI at 21,900.
RSI in the oversold zone may delay aggressive fall, but sustained weakness is visible.
Bullish Scenario (Pullback):
Upside may face heavy resistance around 22,227 – 22,300 (pivot & psychological levels).
A breakout above 22,300 could push Nifty toward 22,400 – 22,500, but these levels are capped by heavy Call writing.
Strategy:
Sell on rise towards 22,200 – 22,300 with stop-loss above 22,350.
Wait for clear support at 21,900 for fresh buying if reversal signals emerge.
Probable Movement – Bank Nifty (Current: 48,114)
Bearish Scenario:
Below 48,000, Bank Nifty could slide towards 47,724 – 47,443.
Bears remain strong with high Call OI at 50,000 and bearish candle formation.
Bullish Scenario (Pullback):
Resistance zones at 48,457 – 48,630.
A move above 48,630 may target 49,000, but sustained rallies look tough due to continued short build-up
Strategy:
Sell on rise near 48,400 – 48,600 with stop-loss above 48,800.
Buy near 47,800 – 48,000 only if there are reversal signs with volume support.
Overall Sentiment:
Bias: Negative to range bound with chances of technical pullbacks.
Approach: Trade light, avoid aggressive positions. Focus on intraday opportunities with strict risk management.
Watch for:
Nifty holding 22,000.
Bank Nifty holding 48,000.
VIX behavior (any spike above 15 will increase fear).
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Securities Analyst
Indirect tax india research
Disclaimer Content is personal views of the author . For trading &investment purposes consult your financial advisor.
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