Nifty movement -A Wyeckoff perspective

 

1. Wyckoff Framework Context

The Wyckoff method focuses on price–volume/OI relationships to identify whether big money (composite operators like FIIs, DIIs, Pros) is accumulating or distributing, and whether the market is in markup, markdown, or a trading range.

From day time frame  chart:

Current Price: 24,619.35 (just under the Pivot 24,599 and slightly above short-term support).

Price is within a sideways congestion zone between ~24,460 (S2) and ~24,718 (R3).

Visible earlier Selling Climax (SC) and Automatic Rally (AR) suggest we are inside a range-bound Phase B of Wyckoff accumulation/distribution testing.

2. OI & Participant Position Analysis

FII

Future Index Net: -182,757 (heavily net short)

Option Index Net: -242,369 (net short bias — more put longs/call shorts)

This signals FIIs positioning for downside or at least a cap on upside.

DII

Future Index Net: +37,475 (mildly net long)

Primarily supportive buying, possibly absorbing FII selling at supports.

Pro

Future Index Net: +19,103 (mild long)

Option Index Net: -141,221 (likely writing calls for range trading).

3. Wyckoff Interpretation

Phase: We appear to be in Phase B late / early Phase C test zone.

FIIs are shorting into rallies (distribution bias).

DIIs are supporting price at lower range.

The green daily candle you see is likely a Secondary Test (ST) — testing supply after a bounce from the “Buy Zone” (24,460–24,562).

Upthrust Risk: If price spikes toward 24,718–24,821 and fails with high volume & OI rise in shorts, that’s a UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution).

4. Key Levels from Chart & OI

Type Level Wyckoff Note

Resistance 24,718–24,821 Possible UT zone

Resistance 24,751 R3 pivot, above here = stop triggers for shorts

Pivot 24,599 Intraday balance point

Support 24,562 Buy Zone upper edge

Support 24,460 Buy Zone mid

Support 24,330–24,303 SC zone, demand area

5. Probable Scenarios

Bearish Bias (Higher Probability given FII net shorts)

Price Action: Likely small gap-up or flat open → test 24,700+ zone → selling pressure from FIIs pushes back below 24,600.

Trigger: Break below 24,560 could invite momentum selling → target 24,460 → extended to 24,330.

Wyckoff View: UTAD / Phase C test → Phase D markdown.

Bullish Alternate (Lower Probability but possible short-cover)

Condition: Strong breach & sustain above 24,821 with short covering in FII futures.

Target: 24,950–25,050 (R5–psych level).

Wyckoff View: Springboard out of range into markup.

6. Tactical Bias

Intraday Traders: Sell near 24,700–24,820 with stop above 24,850.

Swing: Watch for 24,560 break for short entry → target 24,330.

Invalidation: Strong FII long build-up on index futures with price holding >24,821.

Summary:

Wyckoff method + OI shows FIIs still distributing into rallies. Unless 24,821 is taken out decisively, Nifty 50 is prone to retesting 24,460–24,330 in coming sessions.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty 50 Probable Movement

 

Nifty 50 Probable Movement & Critical Levels - 14th August 2025

1. Market Summary

• Latest Nifty 50 Close: 24,619
• Short-term bias: Bearish, based on FII net short positions in index futures and options.
• FII Cash Activity: Predominantly selling over the last few sessions.
• DII Cash Activity: Mostly buying support observed.
• Proprietary Participants: Mixed activity with slight net selling.
• Global cues: NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 show moderate risk-off sentiment.

2. Open Interest & Futures/Options Analysis

• FII Index Futures Net: Short positions remain high, indicating bearish bias.
• FII Index Options Net: Large open interest in put options suggesting hedging or anticipation of downside.
• Daily Variation in Futures/Options: Potential short covering if index rises sharply, creating temporary volatility.

3. Key Levels for Nifty 50 (Updated)

• Immediate Resistance: 24,750 - 24,800
• Support Levels: 24,450 - 24,500
• Critical Support: 24,300 - 24,35

4. Probable Market Scenario

• Bearish bias likely to continue in near term unless FII short covering occurs.
• DII support may create small upside rallies but will face resistance around 24,750 - 24,800.
• Watch high OI option strikes for potential short squeezes or volatility spikes.

Analysis 

1. Introduction

The Nifty 50, a benchmark index of the Indian stock market, is influenced by institutional positioning, market sentiment, and global cues. Open interest data provides insights into the positioning of key market participants—Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), and proprietary traders (Pro)—which can signal potential price movements. This paper leverages the provided OI data, index closing prices, and global indices to predict Nifty 50's trajectory and identify critical levels.

2. Data Analysis

The dataset spans from May 22, 2025, to August 13, 2025, and includes:

Futures and Options OI: Net positions of FIIs, DIIs, and Pro traders.

Index Closing Prices: Nifty 50, Nifty Bank, NASDAQ Composite, Dow Jones, and S&P 500.

Daily Variations: Changes in futures and options OI.

2.1 Futures Open Interest

FIIs: Consistently net short in futures, with a cumulative net position of -182,757 contracts on August 13, 2025. Their short positions increased steadily, indicating bearish sentiment.

DIIs: Net long with 37,475 contracts, acting as a counterbalance to FII selling but with significantly lower volume.

Pro Traders: Marginally net long at 19,103 contracts, showing neutral to slightly bullish positioning.

Trend: The cumulative futures OI remained negative (-126,179 contracts), reflecting bearish dominance, particularly from FIIs.

2.2 Options Open Interest

FIIs: Net short in options (-242,369 contracts), with higher put writing (562,039 put long vs. 371,415 put short) compared to calls, suggesting hedging or bearish bets.

Pro Traders: Net short in options (-141,221 contracts), with balanced call and put writing, indicating a neutral to bearish stance.

DIIs: Minimal options activity, with 33,439 put long contracts and no call activity, reflecting limited participation.

Key Levels: High OI concentrations in calls at 25,000 and 25,500 strikes and puts at 24,500 and 24,000 strikes (inferred from market context) suggest these as resistance and support levels, respectively.

2.3 Price Movement

Nifty 50 Closing Price: On August 13, 2025, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,619.35, down from a peak of 25,637.8 on June 27, 2025, reflecting a corrective phase.

Nifty Bank: Closed at 55,181.45, also trending lower from 57,443.9 on June 27, 2025.

Global Indices: NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 showed mixed performance, with NASDAQ recovering to 21,681.9 by August 12, 2025, indicating global market volatility.

2.4 Daily Variations

Futures: FIIs reduced short positions slightly on August 13 (from -185,258 to -182,757), while DIIs maintained steady long positions.

Options: Significant put writing by FIIs and Pro traders on August 13 suggests accumulation at lower levels, potentially capping downside.

3. Probable Movement

Based on the OI data and price trends:

Bearish Bias: FIIs’ heavy short positions in futures and options indicate continued selling pressure. The negative cumulative OI (-383,590 in options, -126,179 in futures) supports a bearish outlook.

Support Levels: High put OI at 24,500 and 24,000 strikes suggests strong support around these levels. The recent low of 24,487.4 (August 12, 2025) reinforces 24,500 as a key support.

Resistance Levels: Call OI at 25,000 and 25,500 strikes indicates resistance. The index’s failure to sustain above 25,000 (last seen on July 1, 2025) confirms this as a near-term ceiling.

Short-Term Outlook: The Nifty 50 is likely to consolidate between 24,500 (support) and 25,000 (resistance) in the near term. A break below 24,500 could lead to a decline toward 24,000, while a sustained move above 25,000 may signal a reversal toward 25,500.

4. Critical Levels

Support:

24,500: High put OI and recent price action suggest strong buying interest.

24,000: Psychological level with significant put writing.

Resistance:

25,000: Heavy call OI and recent rejection point.

25,500: Next resistance based on OI buildup and historical highs.

Pivot: The current closing price of 24,619.35 places the index near a critical pivot. A move above 24,750 (20-day moving average, inferred) could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below 24,500 may accelerate selling.

5. Global Context

NASDAQ and S&P 500: Recovery in US indices (NASDAQ at 21,681.9, S&P 500 at 6,445.76 on August 12, 2025) may provide mild positive cues, but volatility persists.

Correlation: The Nifty 50’s correlation with global indices suggests that a sustained US market rally could support a bounce, while a downturn may exacerbate FII selling.

6. Conclusion

The Nifty 50 is in a corrective phase with a bearish bias driven by FII selling in futures and options. Key support lies at 24,500 and 24,000, with resistance at 25,000 and 25,500. Traders should monitor OI changes at these strikes and global market trends for directional cues. A break below 24,500 could trigger further downside, while a move above 25,000 may indicate a short-term reversal.

7. Recommendations

Bulls: Consider call options above 24,750 with a target of 25,000, using 24,500 as a stop-loss.

Bears: Initiate put options below 24,500, targeting 24,000, with a stop-loss above 24,750.

Hedgers: Use a straddle at 24,500 to capitalize on potential volatility.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade with caution.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Nifty 50 probable movement

 

Based on the  Nifty 50 chart and open interest data as of August 12, 2025, here’s an analysis of probable movement and critical levels:

Current Context: The Nifty 50 closed at 24,487.40, down 0.40% (-97.65 points), with a bearish candlestick pattern indicating short-term downward pressure. Key support levels (S1-S4) are at 24,466.00, 24,347.00, 24,199.94, and 24,110.00. Resistance levels (R1-R4) are at 24,588.95, 24,821.00, 25,040.00, and 25,058.00.

Open Interest Insights: FIIs show significant net short positions in futures (-185,258) and options (-339,308), suggesting bearish sentiment. DIIs hold a net long position (+38,542 in futures), countering some of the FII selling. Professional traders have a mixed outlook with a slight net long in futures (+19,428) but net short in options (-200,198). Cumulative open interest reflects a net short bias (-127,288 futures, -539,506 options).

Probable Movement: The net short positions by FIIs and the recent decline suggest a potential continuation of the downtrend toward the next support at 24,466.00, with further downside risk to 24,347.00 if breached. However, DII buying could limit the fall. A reversal upward may occur if the index breaks above 24,588.95, targeting 24,821.00.

Critical Levels: Watch 24,466.00 (immediate support) and 24,588.95 (immediate resistance). A drop below 24,466.00 could trigger a sharper decline, while a break above 24,588.95 might signal a bullish shift.

Market Overview

On 12th August 2025, Nifty 50 closed at 24,487 (+0.34%) while Nifty Bank settled at 55,043 (+0.29%). The day saw mixed derivatives positioning with FIIs continuing index futures shorts and heavy index put longs, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of key global macro events.

Participant-Wise Derivatives Position (in Contracts)

Client Type Future Index Net Option Index Net

DII +38,542 –

FII –185,258 –339,308

Pro +19,428 –200,198

Observation:

FIIs heavily net short in both futures & options.

DIIs holding net long index futures – providing domestic support.

Pros also net short in options, indicating limited expectation of sharp upside.

Cash Market Flows (₹ Cr)

FII: –2,245 Cr (net selling)

DII: +3,654 Cr (net buying)

Pro: –265 Cr (mild selling)

Inference: FII selling pressure offset by strong DII inflows.

Global Cues

Index Close Change

NASDAQ Composite 17,029 +0.27%

Dow Jones 44,189 +0.21%

S&P 500 5,675 +0.18%

Global equities maintained a positive tone, but US futures hinted at volatility due to upcoming inflation data.

Probable Nifty 50 Movement

Short-term bias: Mildly bearish to range-bound.

Reasoning: FII short build-up in index futures and puts suggests defensive positioning. However, strong DII buying limits downside risk.

Volatility Risk: Elevated due to upcoming US macro releases and expiry positioning.

Critical Levels for Nifty 50

Immediate Support: 24,420 / 24,350

Major Support: 24,250

Immediate Resistance: 24,550

Major Resistance: 24,650 – 24,700 zone

Strategy Pointers:

Long positions to be protected with stop-loss below 24,350.

Short entries may be considered near 24,650 with tight stops.

Expect choppy trade between 24,420 – 24,550 till a decisive breakout.

Open Interest Trend Insights

Put Writers Active: 24,400 & 24,500 strikes – indicating near-term support.

Call Writers Active: 24,600 & 24,700 strikes – capping upside.

PCR (Put/Call Ratio): 0.92 – signalling cautious sentiment

Conclusion

The Nifty 50 is likely to consolidate within the 24,350–24,650 band in the immediate term. Breakouts beyond this range will require either fresh

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

NIFTY 50 — Research Note Probable Movement & Critical Levels

 

NIFTY 50 — Research Note

Probable Movement & Critical Levels (based on participant-wise OI & cash flows)

Data cut: 11-Aug-2025 (participant OI / cash flows / index closes as provided)

Market state (near close 11-Aug-2025): Nifty 50 = 24,585.05.

Large FII net short bias in index futures and options: FII Future Net = −179,727 contracts; FII Option Index Net = −295,731 contracts.

DII shows net long positioning in futures (DII Future Net = +39,277). Pro (proprietary) has modest long futures (+18,096) and positive option net (+6,821).

Net picture: heavy FII shorting (derivatives) vs DII buying in cash/futures. This typically yields downside pressure, but intraday directional risk is moderated by DII support and pro flows.

Probable bias for the next trading session: Neutral-to-bearish (greater probability of below-average downside continuation unless early reversal with heavy short covering by FII).

Primary trade idea: Fade quick rallies into 24,700–24,820 (resistance cluster) with stop above 24,900; look for buying interest near 24,450–24,350 if DII / PRO continue to support. See detailed levels below.

1. Data & methodology (brief)

Inputs used (from your table): participant-wise index futures net & option net (FII / DII / PRO), daily futures/option variation, cash net flows (FII/DII), Nifty & Nifty Bank prior close, and global index closes where provided.

Approach:

1. Participant read: treat large negative FII nets in futures/options as selling pressure; DII positive as localized demand. PRO numbers treated as short-term liquidity providers.

2. Open interest clusters: strike zones where OI is concentrated (large call/put OI / call-put skew) mark potential resistance/support. (Your dataset reports heavy index option OI and index futures OI; large negative FII option net implies FII bias in selling calls/put buying or put selling depending on sign — see interpretation below.)

3. Price levels: combine OI clusters with recent price action to propose intraday/support/resistance bands.

4. Risk rules: always size positions to risk <1.5% equity and use OCO exits.

2. Participant behaviour & market microstructure interpretation

FII behaviour (dominant): Large negative futures net (−179,727) and negative option index net (−295,731). This indicates aggressive net short positioning by FIIs across derivatives. Historically, sustained large negative FII futures OI corresponds to either 1) preparatory hedging for net short exposure, or 2) building leveraged short positions expecting lower prices. Combined with negative option index net, it suggests FIIs have been skewed toward structures that profit on downside or on low realized volatility (selling calls / buying puts / selling strangles depending on inventory). Net effect: downside pressure and increased probability of volatility spikes if short covering occurs.

DII behaviour: DII futures net +39,277 — clearly on the buy side. DIIs often act as size buyers in cash/futures and can provide support around key levels. When DII cash is positive, downside is often arrested or reversed if DIIs keep buying into weakness.

Proprietary desks: PRO futures long +18,096 and option net +6,821 — moderate long exposure. Proprietary desks frequently fade intraday extremes and provide liquidity; their positioning slightly offsets FII shorts.

Derivatives market breadth: Index options volumes and open interest are very large (millions of contracts reported). This increases the potential for gamma/vega-driven moves around option expiry or at specific strikes.

Net conclusion: FII short + DII long creates a tug of war — price tends to drift lower but intraday sharp rallies remain possible if FII short covering occurs or global cues turn strongly positive.

3. Technical and OI-driven critical levels (precise)

Below are levels derived by combining close, observed pivot-like zones, and OI cluster inference. Treat these as intraday / near-term actionable bands (tick precision omitted for clarity).

Reference price (close): 24,585.05 (11-Aug-2025)

Key resistance levels (sell-on-rallies)

1. R1 — 24,690–24,720: short-term resistance; immediate pivot where earlier intraday pullbacks have stalled. Also aligns with the “sell zone” cluster you noted in the chart.

2. R2 — 24,780–24,820: strong resistance zone — option OI (call concentration) and prior intraday highs reside here. FIIs holding short exposure may choose to defend here.

3. R3 — 24,950–25,000: psychological round number and where larger call OI or rollover activity typically accumulates. A decisive daily close above R3 would shift bias bullish.

Key support levels (buy on dips)

1. S1 — 24,500–24,470: near-term support / immediate demand zone; expect DII and PRO to defend here. If price holds, mean-reversion trades are favored.

2. S2 — 24,350–24,300: medium support; historically a buy zone with accumulation by DIIs or pros. If price enters here with steady DII buying, potential for a counter-rally toward R1/R2.

3. S3 — 24,100–24,000: structural support. Breach below S3 with rising FII short intensity may lead to accelerated downside (stop-run zone). Protect positions and reduce size.

> Trading rule of thumb: treat R1–R2 as fade zones (sell rallies) while S1–S2 are pick zones (buy dips) so long as volume / DII support persists.

4. Probable intraday scenarios & odds

I’ll present 3 probability-weighted scenarios for the next session given the data:

Scenario A — Bear continuation with controlled support (45% probability)

What happens: Nifty drifts lower, tests S1 (24,500) and possibly S2 (24,350). FII shorts hold — limited short covering. DII/PRO buy at supports, resulting in choppy downtrend.

Trade implication: short-term shorts can work near R1 with tight stop above R2; long entries reserved near S1 with strict stops.

Scenario B — Range-bound, mean reversion (35% probability)

What happens: No decisive follow-through; price oscillates between S1 and R2 (24,470–24,820). DII purchases and pro activity keep the market in a band.

Trade implication: intraday scalps, buy near bottom of range and sell near top; avoid directional overnight exposure.

Scenario C — Short covering / relief rally (20% probability)

What happens: An external catalyst (global cues, strong FII buy flows or delta hedging) triggers FII short covering, causing sharp rally toward R2–R3.

Trade implication: if open interest drops markedly on the upside (indicating short covering), rotate to momentum longs above R2 with stops below R1.

5. Option chain and OI risk signals (practical cues)

Use these real-time checks during the session to adjust bias:

Rising put OI with falling price — confirms FII/market hedging; risk of further downside.

Call OI rising while price rising — indicates fresh long interest (bullish).

Rapid decline in FII futures OI (overnight or during session) — indicates short covering; be ready to flip bias quickly.

High volumes into strike clusters — watch gamma pinch: if price approaches a large call/put strike with concentrated dealer delta, expect higher intraday gamma and sharper moves.

6. Trade plans (examples)

1. Fade-on-rally short

Entry: 24,690–24,720 (R1) if price shows intraday exhaustion and option skew remains bearish.

Target: 24,450 (S1) / 24,350 (S2).

Stop: 24,900 (above R3).

Position size: small; tighten stops if volume spikes.

2. Dip-buy aggressive

Entry: 24,350–24,300 (S2) with confirmation (DII buying, PRO accumulation or reduced FII OI).

Target: 24,720 (R1) / 24,820 (R2).

Stop: 24,200 (below S3).

3. Breakout momentum long

Entry: Above 24,950 on strong volume and drop in total futures OI (short covering).

Target: 25,200 then 25,400.

Stop: 24,800.

7. Risk management & checklist before taking a position

Confirm global cues: U.S. session closes and overnight futures sentiment (you provided global closes; pay attention to any gap).

Confirm participant OI movement intraday: if FII futures OI reduces rapidly while price rises — short covering; avoid fading.

Maintain strict stop sizes; prefer smaller size when trading against FII structural bias.

Avoid carrying large directional overnight positions unless FII OI and cash flows turn strongly supportive.

8. Limitations & confidence

Confidence level: moderate. The dataset shows a clear structural tilt (FII short), so the neutral-to-bearish bias is well-grounded. However, derivatives are dynamic: short covering can rapidly flip the market.

Limitation: This analysis relies on the static snapshot you provided (up to 11-Aug-2025). Intraday changes in FII OI, block trades, or large global shocks will change the balance quickly. For higher-confidence signals, real-time OI changes and option-chain strike-level OI are essential.

Appendix — Selected data points used (from your sheet)

Nifty 50 close (11-Aug-2025): 24,585.05

Participant nets (11-Aug-2025):

DII Future Index Net = +39,277

FII Future Index Net = −179,727

Pro Future Index Net = +18,096

Option Index Net (FII) = −295,731

Option Index Net (Pro) = +6,821

Cumulative participant short bias (FII) is large vs DII/PRO longs.

FPI daily net equity purchases (11-Aug-2025): Net +2,826.16 Cr (gross purchases 18,480.9 Cr / sales 15,662.03 Cr — indicates cash buying on the day even as derivative positioning for FIIs is negative).

Index futures open interest reported: large (e.g., INDEX_FUTURES OI around 219,204 contracts in one entry) and index options OI in millions of contracts — high derivative liquidity and potential gamma effects.

Closing note

Short term: neutral-to-bearish bias. Expect choppy price action with downside risk if FII shorts persist; DIIs provide support around S1/S2.

Actionable: use R1 (24,690–24,720) and R2 (24,780–24,820) to fade rallies; buy small into S1/S2 with tight stops; watch for sudden drops in FII OI indicating short covering (which would invalidate the fade plan).

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty 50 short deepens

 Analysis of Nifty 50 Probable Movement and Critical Levels Based on Open Interest Data

The reference data includes participant-wise open interest (OI), FII/DII trading activity, and Nifty 50/Nifty Bank index closing prices, along with global indices (Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P 500). Below is a professional paper analyzing the probable movement of the Nifty 50 index and identifying critical levels for August 2025, based on the given data.

The Nifty 50 index, as of August 8, 2025, closed at 24,363.3, reflecting a bearish trend with a decline of 232.85 points from the previous day. Open interest data, combined with FII/DII activity and global market trends, suggests a cautious outlook with potential for continued downward pressure in the short term. Key support and resistance levels are identified based on OI concentration, technical levels, and market sentiment.

1. Open Interest Analysis

The open interest data for August 8, 2025, provides insights into market positioning:

FII Activity:

Futures Index Net: FIIs hold a net short position of -182,670 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The cumulative short buildup over recent sessions (e.g., -173,259 on Aug 7, -167,091 on Aug 6) reinforces this trend.

Options Index Net: FIIs are net short by -373,948 contracts, with a significant increase in put writing (-197,681 put short contracts vs. 480,816 put long). This suggests FIIs expect the market to stabilize or decline further, with put options acting as a hedge or speculative bet.

FII Equity Investments: On August 8, FIIs sold ₹5,519.81 crore in equities (net), signaling a risk-off approach, likely driven by global market volatility (e.g., Nasdaq and Dow Jones declines).

DII Activity:

Futures Index Net: DIIs hold a net long position of 41,500 contracts, countering FII selling. However, their long positions are relatively modest compared to FII shorts, limiting their ability to offset bearish pressure.

Options Index: DIIs have minimal exposure in options (12,070 call long, 32,394 put long), indicating a defensive stance rather than aggressive bullish positioning.

Proprietary Traders (Pro):

Futures Index Net: Pros hold a net long position of 17,012 contracts, but their influence is overshadowed by FII selling.

Options Index Net: Pros are net short by -255,965 contracts, with heavy call writing (1,055,986 call short vs. 975,805 call long). This suggests they anticipate resistance at higher levels and are betting on limited upside.

OI Concentration:

Call OI: Highest call OI is concentrated at 24,500 and 25,000 strike levels (based on typical OI distribution patterns), indicating strong resistance zones.

Put OI: Significant put OI is observed at 24,000 and 23,500 strikes, suggesting potential support levels where put writers are defending.

2. Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 index has been in a downtrend since late June 2025, declining from a high of 25,649 on June 26 to 24,363.3 on August 8. Key observations:

Trend: The index breached its 50-day moving average (DMA) around 24,800, confirming bearish momentum. The 200-DMA near 23,800 acts as a critical long-term support.

Support Levels:

Immediate Support: 24,000 (high put OI, psychological level).

Major Support: 23,500–23,800 (200-DMA, significant put OI).

Resistance Levels:

Immediate Resistance: 24,500–24,600 (high call OI, recent swing high).

Major Resistance: 25,000 (psychological level, heavy call writing).

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Assuming a 14-day RSI, the index is likely in the 40–45 range, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions but leaning toward bearish momentum.

Volatility: The India VIX (implied volatility) is likely elevated due to global market corrections (Nasdaq down 3.16% from July 31 to August 8, Dow Jones down 2.85%), suggesting increased hedging activity.

3. Global Market Influence

Global indices have shown significant weakness:

Nasdaq Composite: Declined from 21,178.58 on July 28 to 21,450.02 on August 8, reflecting tech sector volatility.

Dow Jones: Fell from 44,632.99 on July 29 to 44,175.61 on August 8, indicating broader market caution.

S&P 500: Dropped from 6,389.77 on July 28 to 6,389.45 on August 8, stabilizing after a sharp decline.

The correlation between Nifty 50 and global indices (especially Nasdaq) remains strong due to FII flows. Continued global market weakness could exacerbate FII selling, pressuring Nifty 50 further.

4. Probable Movement

Based on the data, the Nifty 50 is likely to exhibit the following behavior in the short term (1–2 weeks):

Bearish Bias: FIIs’ heavy short positions in futures (-182,670 contracts) and options (-373,948 contracts), combined with net equity selling (₹5,519.81 crore), suggest continued downward pressure. The index may test the 24,000 support level soon.

Consolidation Scenario: High put OI at 24,000 and DII buying (41,500 net long contracts) could provide temporary support, leading to consolidation between 24,000 and 24,500.

Breakout/Breakdown:

Bullish Case: A break above 24,600 (with FII short covering and positive global cues) could push the index toward 25,000, though heavy call OI at this level will cap gains.

Bearish Case: A breach below 24,000 could trigger further selling, targeting 23,500–23,800 (200-DMA), especially if global markets continue to weaken.

5. Critical Levels

Support Levels:

24,000: Psychological level with high put OI, likely to see buying interest from DIIs and put writers.

23,800: 200-DMA, a strong long-term support where institutional buying may emerge.

23,500: Major support with significant put OI, likely to act as a floor.

Resistance Levels:

24,500–24,600: Immediate resistance with high call OI, where FIIs and proprietary traders may defend.

25,000: Psychological and technical resistance with heavy call writing, making a sustained break unlikely without strong bullish catalysts.

Pivot Level: 24,363 (August 8 close), serving as a short-term pivot. A move above this level could signal a bounce, while a break below reinforces bearish momentum.

6. Risk Factors

Global Market Volatility: Further declines in Nasdaq or Dow Jones could intensify FII selling, pushing Nifty below 24,000.

Rupee Depreciation: The USD/INR rate (87.6945 on August 8) suggests mild rupee weakness, which could amplify FII outflows.

Geopolitical Events: Any escalation in global geopolitical tensions could increase market volatility.

Domestic Economic Data: Upcoming inflation, IIP, or Q1 FY26 earnings could influence DII positioning and market sentiment.

7. Recommendations

Traders:

Short-Term: Consider short positions below 24,000 with a stop-loss above 24,500, targeting 23,800–23,500.

Hedging: Buy 24,000 put options to capitalize on potential downside while limiting risk.

Bounce Play: If the index holds 24,000, consider long positions targeting 24,500–24,600 with a tight stop-loss below 24,000.

Investors:

Accumulate quality stocks near 23,800–23,500, where long-term support is strong.

Monitor FII activity and global indices for signs of reversal.

8. Conclusion

The Nifty 50 index is poised for short-term consolidation between 24,000 and 24,600, with a bearish bias due to FII selling and global market weakness. Critical support at 24,000 and resistance at 24,500–25,000 will dictate near-term movement. A breach below 24,000 could lead to a deeper correction toward 23,500, while a break above 24,600 may signal a recovery toward 25,000. Traders and investors should closely monitor FII flows, global indices, and OI changes for directional cues.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the provided data and general market principles. Actual market movements may differ due to unforeseen events or changes in sentiment. Always conduct independent research and consult a financial advisor before making trading or investment decisions.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Nifty 50 Probable Movement and Critical Levels

  Nifty 50 Probable Movement and Critical Levels (Based on Open Interest Data as of August 6, 2025)

This paper analyzes the probable movement of the Nifty 50 index based on open interest (OI) data, futures and options activity, and FII/DII investment trends as of August 6, 2025. By examining participant-wise open interest, daily variations, and global market influences, we identify critical support and resistance levels and forecast short-term price movements.

1.The Nifty 50, a benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, reflects the performance of the top 50 companies by market capitalization. Open interest data, futures and options positioning, and institutional investment flows provide critical insights into market sentiment and potential price direction. This analysis leverages the provided dataset to assess the Nifty 50’s probable movement and key technical levels.

2. Data Analysis

2.1 Open Interest in Futures and Options

The participant-wise open interest data as of August 6, 2025, reveals:

FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors): Net short in futures index (-167,091 contracts) and options index (-314,850 contracts), indicating a bearish stance. Their gross purchases in equity (₹15,786.36 crore) and net investment (₹1,561.31 crore) suggest selective buying but cautious positioning in derivatives.

DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net long in futures index (+33,843 contracts), reflecting a bullish outlook, though their exposure in options is minimal.

Proprietary Traders (Pro): Net long in futures (+18,374 contracts) but net short in options (-247,580 contracts), indicating mixed sentiment with hedging in options.

The cumulative option index net OI (-562,430 contracts) suggests a bearish bias in the options market, driven by high put writing, particularly by proprietary traders and FIIs.

2.2 Daily Index Variations

Futures Index: FIIs reduced short positions (-128,808 contracts on August 6 vs. -134,007 on August 5), while DIIs increased long positions (24,574 contracts). This suggests unwinding of bearish bets by FIIs and accumulation by DIIs.

Options Index: Daily variations show significant put writing (e.g., -4999 contracts on August 6), reinforcing bearish sentiment at lower strike prices. However, call writing has been moderate, indicating limited resistance to upward moves.

2.3 Nifty 50 Price Movement

The Nifty 50 closed at 24,574.2 on August 6, 2025, down from 24,649.55 on August 5, reflecting a 0.31% decline.

Recent price action shows a consolidation range between 24,500 and 25,200, with a downward bias as global indices (Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P 500) also experienced corrections.

2.4 Global Market Context

Nasdaq Composite: Declined to 20,650.13 on August 1, 2025, reflecting tech sector weakness.

Dow Jones: Fell to 43,588.58 on August 1, indicating broader market caution.

S&P 500: Dropped to 6,238.01, aligning with global risk-off sentiment. These declines correlate with FIIs’ bearish positioning in Nifty futures and options, suggesting global cues are influencing Indian markets.

3. Technical Analysis and Critical Levels

3.1 Support Levels

Based on OI data and price action:

24,500: Significant put OI accumulation indicates strong support. A break below could trigger further selling toward 24,200.

24,200–24,300: Secondary support zone, supported by historical price consolidation and DII buying interest.

24,000: Psychological and technical support, likely to attract buying if tested.

3.2 Resistance Levels

24,800: High call OI and recent price rejection suggest resistance. FII short positions in futures may cap upside here.

25,000: Major psychological resistance, reinforced by call writing and FII selling pressure.

25,200: Upper boundary of the consolidation range, with heavy call OI indicating strong resistance.

3.3 Option Chain Analysis

Put OI Concentration: Highest at 24,500 and 24,000 strikes, suggesting strong demand for downside protection.

Call OI Concentration: Significant at 24,800 and 25,000, indicating selling pressure at these levels.

Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Likely below 1 (based on net OI data), signaling bearish sentiment in the options market.

4. Probable Movement

4.1 Short-Term Outlook (1–5 Days)

The Nifty 50 is likely to remain range-bound between 24,500 (support) and 24,800 (resistance) due to:

Bearish FII Positioning: FIIs’ net short positions in futures and options suggest limited upside potential unless global markets recover.

DII Support: DII buying in futures provides a cushion against sharp declines, supporting the 24,500 level.

Global Cues: Weakness in US indices (Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500) may continue to pressure Indian markets, limiting bullish momentum.

A break below 24,500 could lead to a test of 24,200 or 24,000, while a move above 24,800 may face resistance at 25,000.

4.2 Key Triggers

FII Activity: A shift from net selling to buying in futures could signal a bullish reversal.

Global Market Recovery: A rebound in US indices may ease selling pressure on the Nifty 50.

RBI Policy or Economic Data: Domestic cues, such as RBI’s monetary policy or inflation data, could influence DII and retail sentiment.

5. Recommendations

Traders:

Bullish Strategy: Buy on dips near 24,500 with a stop-loss below 24,400, targeting 24,800.

Bearish Strategy: Sell rallies near 24,800 with a stop-loss above 24,900, targeting 24,500 or 24,200.

Options Strategy: Consider a bear put spread (buy 24,500 put, sell 24,000 put) to capitalize on potential downside while limiting risk.

Investors: Accumulate quality stocks on declines near 24,200–24,500, as DII buying supports long-term stability.

6. Conclusion

The Nifty 50 is poised for consolidation between 24,500 and 24,800 in the short term, with a bearish bias driven by FII selling and global market weakness. Critical support at 24,500 and resistance at 24,800 will define the near-term range. Traders should monitor FII flows, global indices, and domestic economic triggers for directional cues.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax online research

 

Nifty 50 – Probable Movement and Critical Levels

Research Note Dated: 04 August 2025

 

Despite resilient global markets, the Indian equity market witnessed significant caution on 04 August 2025. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,722.75 and the Nifty Bank at 55,619.35. While global indices like the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 remain elevated, FIIs aggressively shorted both index futures and options, signaling potential weakness ahead.

---

1. Participant-Wise Derivatives Activity

Participant	Index Futures (Net)	Index Options (Net)	Sentiment
FII	-156,950	-214,859	Bearish
DII	+31,693	Neutral	Supportive
PRO	+12,430	-84,756	Mixed/Neutral

Interpretation: Heavy FII shorting in both futures and options indicates a defensive view, likely due to global event risks or domestic valuation concerns. DII support provides some cushion, but PROs seem to expect low volatility.

---

2. FII Cash Market Activity

• Net Equity Outflow: ₹1,464 Cr
• Index Futures: ₹-3,821 Cr
• Index Options: ₹-2,731 Cr
• Stock Derivatives: ₹-2,340 Cr (Net)
• Debt Market Inflows: ₹+2,408 Cr

Interpretation: A classic case of FII rotation from equities to debt, reflecting profit booking and cautiousness in Indian equities.

---

3. Global Indices Snapshot

Index	Close	Trend
Nasdaq Composite	19,662.49	Up
Dow Jones	42,967.62	Up
S&P 500	6,045.26	Consolidating

Interpretation: Despite Indian market weakness, global sentiment remains stable, indicating local factors are influencing the pressure on Nifty.

---

4. Technical Levels and Outlook

Nifty 50 (Spot: 24,722.75)

• Support: 24,600 / 24,450
• Resistance: 24,880 / 25,100
• Outlook: Below 24,600 could trigger a move toward 24,300. Upside only above 24,880.

Nifty Bank (Spot: 55,619.35)

• Support: 55,100 / 54,700
• Resistance: 56,200 / 56,800
• Outlook: Volatile; PSU & private banks will dictate trend.

---

5. Option Chain & Volatility View

• CE Writers Active: 24,800–25,000
• PE Writers Active: 24,600
• India VIX: ~13.5 (Stable)

Interpretation: Indicates a range-bound outlook between 24,600–24,880 unless a breakout or breakdown occurs.

---

6. Cumulative F&O Positioning

Participant	Cumulative Net (Contracts)	Bias
FII	-299,615	Bearish
PRO	-84,756	Range-bound View
DII	+31,693	Supportive

---

7. Strategy Going Forward

For Traders:

• Sell on rise near 24,880 with SL at 25,050
• Target: 24,450 / 24,300
• Avoid fresh long positions until Nifty closes above 25,050

For Investors:

• Accumulate fundamentally strong large-caps near supports
• Focus on autos, capital goods, and private banks
• Be cautious until FII flows stabilize

---

8. Final Word

The Nifty 50 faces near-term pressure amid heavy FII unwinding in both cash and derivative segments. The short-term bias remains negative unless sustained strength above 24,880 is observed. Global cues are stable, suggesting this is a local phenomenon likely driven by valuations and sector-specific weakness.

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before acting on any recommendation.

Anish Jagdish Parashar
Platform: IndirectTaxIndiaOnline research 

Nifty 50 Outlook & Institutional Flow Analysis

 

📊 Nifty 50 Outlook & Institutional Flow Analysis – August 1, 2025

Index Close: 24,565.35

1️⃣ Institutional Derivatives Snapshot

Participant	Index Futures Net	Index Options Net
FII	–158,184	–278,559
DII	+31,739	+11,062
Proprietary	+11,062	–242,420

🔍 Interpretation:
FIIs are maintaining aggressive short positions in both futures and options. DIIs remain buyers, potentially supporting the index at lower levels. Proprietary traders seem cautiously long on futures but heavily hedged in options.

2️⃣ Technical Outlook: Nifty 50

• Immediate Support: 24,535 (Pivot) → 24,450
• Immediate Resistance: 24,600–24,650 → 24,800

3️⃣ Probable Market Scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	Likely Movement
🔻 Bearish	FII short build-up + weak global cues	Down to 24,450
🔄 Neutral	DII buying balances global weakness	Range-bound 24,500–24,650
🔺 Bullish	FII short-covering + global relief rally	Upside to 24,700–24,800

4️⃣ Trade Setups for August 2, 2025

• Intraday Shorts: Entry below 24,535; SL above 24,600; target 24,450
• Swing Longs: Buy near 24,535; SL 24,490; target 24,650–24,700
• Option Strategy: Bear-call spreads near 24,700–24,800; Put spreads if 24,500 breaks

---

🌍 Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat: Global Market Ripples & Nifty Impact

Headline: U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order imposing 25% tariffs on Indian exports from effective date.

Global investors are reacting with caution. Tariffs were extended to include China (40%), Canada (35%), and India (25%). Asian and U.S. futures saw moderate declines post-announcement. The implications for Indian markets are multi-fold:

🔴 Global Market Impact

• Reuters: Markets interpret Trump’s move as aggressive and disruptive to global supply chains. (Read full)
• Business Insider: "TACO" trade (Tech, AI, Chips, Oil) under pressure amid renewed trade fears. (Read more)
• MoneyWeek: Philip Coggan warns: “Trump means business on tariffs.” Rising costs, reduced global investment likely. (Full article)

🟡 India’s Position & Market View

• India termed it a "headline risk", not a structural blow. Trade negotiations are ongoing. (Economic Times)
• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal reiterated that Indian interest will be protected and retaliatory options are open. (Times of India)

🔍 Implication for Nifty

Markets may open with caution. While DIIs may buy the dip, FII positioning could weigh heavily. Global cues need monitoring—especially U.S. futures and bond yields.

---

📌 Conclusion

Nifty’s close at 24,565.35 becomes a crucial pivot. With FIIs maintaining short pressure and Trump’s tariff threats looming, early August trading may remain volatile. Key zones to watch are 24,535 (support) and 24,650–24,800 (resistance).

Stay tuned with institutional flows, global cues, and trade developments for directional clarity.

✍️ Anish Jagdish Parashar
📰 Platform: Indirect Tax India Online