Probable Nifty 50 opening range assuming the Fed issues dovish forward guidance today.
1️⃣ U.S. Market Reaction (Base Case: Dovish Fed)
Nasdaq 100 likely gaps up +1% to +2%.
S&P 500 likely gaps up +0.7% to +1.2%.
Dow Jones likely gaps up +0.5% to +1%.
U.S. bond yields fall, USD softens → risk-on sentiment globally.
2️⃣ Correlation With Nifty 50
Nasdaq–Nifty correlation ≈ 0.7.
Thus, if Nasdaq rises +1.5%, Nifty tends to reflect ~+1.0% (70 bps translation) at next open, adjusted for local cues.
3️⃣ Nifty 50 Probable Gap-Up Range (Tomorrow)
Today’s Nifty close (example: 24,973 on 16 Sept).
Apply correlation-based uplift:
Mild dovish surprise: +0.5% to +0.7% → ~25,100 – 25,150 open.
Strong dovish surprise (multiple cuts hinted): +0.8% to +1.2% → ~25,200 – 25,275 open.
4️⃣ Factors That Could Modify the Gap
FIIs flows today → If FIIs were heavy buyers in cash & index futures, gap could be on the higher end.
USD/INR & crude oil → A sharp INR weakness or oil spike could cap the upside.
Domestic cues → RBI commentary, corporate newsflow, or election-related developments can add noise.
📊 Bottom Line:
If Fed is dovish → Nifty 50 likely gaps up 130–300 points tomorrow.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
