Saturday, October 11, 2025

Nifty 50 Outlook: 14th October 2025 (Monday) in the shadow of tariffs on China

 

📰 Nifty 50 Outlook: 14th October 2025 (Monday)


Based on Participant-Wise Derivative & Cash Market Activity (Data as on Oct 10, 2025)



🔹 Derivative Overview


The derivatives data for October 10, 2025, indicates modest short covering activity in index futures, reflected by a positive cumulative futures net variance of +2,329 contracts.

This follows a minor negative variation (–942) on October 9, suggesting initial stages of FII short unwinding after persistent bearish positioning through early October.


The Nifty 50 closed at 25,285, up +104 points (0.41%), while Bank Nifty ended at 56,609, up +417 points (0.74%) — confirming intraday resilience despite weak global cues.



🔹 Participant Positioning Snapshot


Participant Futures Index Net Options Index Net Interpretation


FII –1,81,339 –2,67,885 Remain heavily short in index; mild covering seen.

DII +44,690 Neutral Portfolio hedged; long index to offset stock shorts.

PRO +10,391 +1,08,039 Writing both sides of options; expecting consolidation.



Cumulative Futures OI Net: –1,26,258

Cumulative Options OI Net: –1,59,846


The slight improvement in cumulative futures OI and marginal increase in DII index longs indicate technical short covering, while overall structure still favors range-bound to mildly bullish bias.


🔹 Cash Market Activity


Date FII Cash (₹ Cr) DII Cash (₹ Cr) Interpretation


10-Oct-25 +459 +1,707 Continued domestic institutional support; mild FII inflows.

09-Oct-25 +1,308 +864 Sequential DII buying trend sustained.



Interpretation:

Domestic institutions have been consistent net buyers, absorbing foreign selling and providing downside cushion.

FIIs turned mild buyers after several sessions of selling, indicating stabilization of sentiment.


🔹 Index Technicals & Derivative Structure


Daily cumulative futures variance: +2,329 → Confirms short covering.


Option OI variation: –33,455 → Suggests writers booking profits, reducing directional exposure.


Put writing remains concentrated near 25,100, while Call writing is visible near 25,400–25,500 — defining a narrow range.



Technical levels:


Zone Level Interpretation


Resistance 1 25,400–25,450 Key short-term hurdle; watch for FII short covering.

Resistance 2 25,600–25,700 Breakout zone if FIIs add longs.

Support 1 25,100–25,050 First layer of buyer defense.

Support 2 24,800–24,700 Strong support; violation signals deeper correction.



🔹 Probable Movement on Monday (14-Oct-2025)


Scenario Probability Expected Action


Mild Upside (Base Case) 60% Positive open, test of 25,400; may consolidate later.

Follow-Through Rally 20% If SGX Nifty and US cues turn positive → breakout above 25,450.

Profit Booking / Gap Down 20% If global risk-off persists; supports at 25,100 may be tested.


🔹 Outlook Summary Table


Indicator Current Bias Impact on Nifty


FII Index Futures Bearish (shorts reducing) + Mild short covering

DII Index Futures Bullish + Domestic support

PRO Options Neutral Range-bound

Cash Flows Positive + Supports sentiment

Global Cues Cautious – May cap upside

Net Outlook Range-Bound to Mildly Bullish Upside capped near 25,450–25,600



📊 Analyst Viewpoint


 The derivative structure for October 10 reflects the first signs of short covering by FIIs, complemented by strong DII cash inflows.

This setup supports a mild upside bias for Monday’s trade, with the 25,400–25,450 zone acting as a pivot. Sustained trade above this region could attract additional covering and extend the rally toward 25,600+ levels.

However, global volatility and weak US markets warrant caution; traders should maintain a buy-on-dips strategy with strict stop-losses below 25,050.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer :Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor .



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