Nifty Outlook for Monday, 14 Oct 2025
1. Vision
Global shock from the U.S. plan to impose 130% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp selloff in European & U.S. markets.
OI / flow data shows FIIs remain net short in futures + option skew leans toward downside protection.
Domestic support (DII / retail flows) has been relatively firm, which mitigates (but does not eliminate) downside risk.
Key takeaway: Expect a gap-down open Monday, with probable further intraday weakness. Most likely drawdown in range of 1% to 3%, unless global news over weekend intensifies (then risk of ~4–5%+).
2. Key Technical Levels & Chart Structure
Support / Resistance Zones for Nifty 50
Based on current technical consensus and chart reading:
Zone Level (approx) Significance / Risk Trigger
Immediate Resistance ~ 25,450 If index recovers toward this, sellers may re-emerge.
Key Resistance Band ~ 25,500 – 25,600 A breakout above could reverse momentum.
Support Level 1 ~ 25,150 This is a near-term support cited by several analysts.
Support Level 2 ~ 25,000 A break below could open the path to deeper correction.
Lower Structural Support ~ 24,700 – 24,500 If downside momentum builds, this zone may act as a “hard floor” in the near term.
On the chart above (hourly / daily), one can see that price is testing a downsloping channel and possibly forming lower highs, making the support zones critically important.
Technical Indicators Snapshot (as of latest)
RSI / Momentum: Overbought region — warning of limited upside before return of selling.
MACD / Trend: Still positive “buy” in some signals, but diverging (momentum weakening)
Volatility & ATR: Elevated, so intraday moves likely to be larger than “normal.”
Hence, support / resistance levels will be tested sharply.
3. Risk Triggers & Monitoring Checklist (Over Weekend → Pre-Open)
Trigger What to Watch Risk / Impact
Tariff / Policy clarification from U.S. Any formal rule-making, timing, exemptions Could deepen intraday sell-off beyond 3%
China / retaliatory announcements Export controls, counter-tariffs Amplifies spillover to Indian markets
U.S. / Europe equity futures & Asian early cues S&P / Nasdaq futures, Nikkei / KOSPI early open If those are sharply weak, Nifty gap may open 2–3% down
Currency / bond yields INR/USD, 10Y U.S. yields Sharp INR depreciation or rising global yields add pressure
FII / ADR flows commentary Any weekend comment from major funds or large repositioning Could lead to pre-emptive hedging / selling Monday morning
SGX Nifty / GIFT Nifty futures Pre-open levels relative to spot Determines likely gapping direction for Nifty India
Pre-open action plan
Watch SGX / GIFT Nifty futures levels vs. spot.
If futures down >1.5–2%, expect aggressive gap down.
Use first 30 minutes’ momentum confirmation before committing.
Identify if price holds above 25,150 intraday — if so, potential for stabilization or partial rebound.
4. Scenario Forecasts with Price Targets
Here are scenario-based forecasts for Monday:
Scenario Move Range / Target (from ~ 25,285) Comments / Conditions
Base case Moderate decline ~ −1.0% to −2.0% → 25,025 to 24,780 Common for headline shock, but domestic support may cap the fall
Bearish case Sharp decline ~ −2.5% to −3.5% → 24,640 to 24,475 If tariff news worsens, global markets collapse further
Extreme / crash Deep slide >5% drop → < 24,000 Only if weekend brings further surprises (policy, retaliation, credit shock)
If intraday bounce attempts, watch resistance at 25,450, beyond which relief rally attempts may falter.
5. Summary & Recommendations
The risk bias is to the downside on Monday, driven by global catalysts.
The most probable move: gap down, then testing lower supports (25,150 → 25,000).
If 25,150 zone fails decisively, slide to ~24,700 / 24,500 territory becomes possible.
Upside recovery limited until tariff news stabilizes and global markets calm.
Tactically: favor short / hedged trades in aggressive names; protect long positions; watch early momentum and key support zones.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
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