Nifty50 Outlook 28th November 25

 

Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Provided Open Interest Data

The data covers trading days from November 3 to November 27, 2025, focusing on Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank indices, institutional flows (FII and DII), open interest (OI) in futures and options, and cash market activities. I'll break down key trends, derive sentiments, and visualize them with charts for clarity. Sentiments are inferred from:

Index Performance: Upward closes indicate bullish momentum.

Futures OI: Negative cumulative net OI suggests building short positions (bearish pressure), but DII buying offsets FII selling.

Options OI: Fluctuating cumulative net OI (often negative) points to hedging or put protection (mildly bearish), with volatility in daily variations.

Cash Flows: FII net outflows (-₹14,443 Cr) signal caution, while DII inflows (+₹72,535 Cr) provide strong domestic support.

Overall: Mildly Bullish for the near term. Indices gained despite FII selling, driven by DII buying. Watch for FII reversal; sustained DII support could push Nifty past 26,500.

Key Trends

Nifty 50: +1.75% overall (25763 → 26215). Steady climb post-November 14, with minor dips.

Nifty Bank: +2.82% (58101 → 59737). Stronger gains, peaking on Nov 27.

Futures OI: FII continued net selling (avg. recent: -₹120,849 vs. early: -₹117,605), DII increased buying (avg. recent: +46,036 vs. early: +31,123). Cumulative futures OI net deepened to -57,165 (net shorts building, bearish tilt).

Options OI: Cumulative net swung from +99,892 to -65,876 (shift to net puts/hedging, bearish). Daily variations show high volatility, with large put unwinds on Nov 26.

Cash Market: FII outflows dominated early/mid-period, but inflows on Nov 26 (+4,778 Cr) aided recovery. DII consistently positive, averaging +3,999 Cr/day.

Visual Trends

Suggested Sentiments & Outlook

Bullish Drivers: Index uptrends + DII cash/futures buying = domestic resilience. Bank Nifty's strength suggests sector rotation into financials.

Bearish Risks: FII outflows + deepening futures shorts = potential pullback if global cues weaken. Options hedging signals caution around 25,800 support.

Short-Term (1-2 weeks): Mildly Bullish (target: Nifty 26,400). Monitor Nov 28 FII data for reversal.

Medium-Term (1 month): Neutral-to-Bullish if DII inflows persist; watch cumulative OI for unwind signals.

Market Sentiment Analysis for November 28, 2025

As of pre-market on November 28, 2025 (Indian markets open at 9:15 AM IST), the outlook remains strongly bullish for Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank, building on yesterday's gains. Gift Nifty is trading at 26,424.50 (+0.13%), signaling a positive open, while December Nifty futures are up 0.05% at 26,390 (premium of 176 points over spot). Open interest in Nifty futures has declined by 1.34%, indicating potential short covering and reduced hedging pressure. Experts anticipate Nifty pushing toward 26,500–26,600, with intermittent consolidation possible.

Key Updates from November 27 Close

Nifty 50: Closed at 26,205.30 (+1.24% from Nov 26), marking a fresh all-time high after 14 months. Momentum intact above 26,200 support.

Nifty Bank: Closed at 59,528.05 (+1.20%), extending its outperformance with buying in financials.

Institutional Flows (Nov 27 Provisional): FIIs turned net sellers (-₹1,255 Cr in cash), but DIIs absorbed with strong buying (+₹3,941 Cr), maintaining domestic support. This offsets recent FII caution, with cumulative DII inflows near ₹72,000 Cr for November.

Open Interest Trends: Cumulative futures OI net likely stable around -57,000 (from Nov 27 data), with the OI dip today suggesting bullish unwind. Options OI remains hedged (net negative), but daily variations show put unwinding.

Bullish Drivers

Global Cues: Asian markets up on Fed rate-cut optimism (90%+ odds for December); US indices hit 4-day highs pre-Thanksgiving. Dollar softening aids EM flows.

Domestic Momentum: Sector rotation into banks, metals, infra, and select large-caps (e.g., Reliance, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel). Break above 26,250 could target 27,500 by December end.

Social Sentiment (X Buzz): Latest posts highlight "strong bullish" structure—buy on dips, with focus on Nifty's upside potential. Traders eye 26,500 as next hurdle.

Risks & Outlook

Bearish Watch: FII selling if global yields rise; key support at 26,000. Volatility from US holiday thin trading.

Short-Term (Today–1 Week): Strongly Bullish—expect gap-up open, target 26,400+. Hold longs, trail stops at 26,100.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

 US FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT HOPE 

MOVES INDEXES

Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Open Interest Data

The data covers the period from November 3 to November 26, 2025, focusing on Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank indices. Key metrics include net open interest (OI) positions in futures and options for FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors), DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors), and proprietary traders, cumulative OI nets, daily variations, and cash market flows (in INR crores). Net positive OI generally signals bullish positioning (longs), while negative indicates bearish (shorts). Cash inflows (positive) suggest buying support.

Overall Trends (November 3–26, 2025)

Index Performance: Nifty 50 rose ~1.7% overall (from 25,763 to 26,205), with Nifty Bank up ~2.4% (58,101 to 59,528). However, it experienced volatility: a dip from 26,192 (Nov 20) to 25,884 (Nov 25, -1.2% drawdown), followed by a sharp 1.24% rebound on Nov 26.

Futures OI: Cumulative net OI remained predominantly negative (avg. -77,000 contracts), indicating net short positioning across participants. FIIs were the largest shorts (total net -2.43M contracts), but DIIs built longs (total +762K). This suggests FIIs drove downward pressure, offset by DII absorption.

Options OI: Highly volatile, with cumulative net flipping from positive early (+99,892 on Nov 3) to deeply negative mid-period (low -709,753 on Nov 24), then surging to +55,548 on Nov 26. FIIs net short options (total -3.51M), while proprietary traders went long (total +1.27M). Negative OI likely reflects put buildup (bearish hedging), with the late flip signaling call dominance (bullish).

Cash Flows: FIIs were net sellers (total outflow -12,447 Cr), contributing to pressure during the mid-month dip. DIIs countered with inflows (total +69,000 Cr), providing support. Correlations: Nifty close weakly positively correlated with cumulative futures OI (0.29), options OI (0.35), and FII cash (0.23), implying derivative positioning amplified but didn't fully drive price moves.

Broad Sentiment: Bearish bias mid-period due to FII selling and short buildup amid falling prices (indicating fresh shorts). However, DII buying absorbed this, preventing deeper declines. Low correlations suggest external factors (e.g., global cues) influenced the rebound.

Recent Trends (Last 5 Trading Days: Nov 20–26)

Market dipped 1.2% amid FII cash outflows (-5,869 Cr total) and deepening negative OI (futures more short, options put-heavy), pointing to bearish consolidation.

Sharp reversal on Nov 26: Both indices up >1%, FII cash inflow +4,778 Cr (first major buy in days), DII +6,247 Cr. Cumulative futures OI less negative (-57,268 vs. -77,362 prior), and options flipped positive (+55,548)—strong short covering and bullish rotation signal.

FII futures shorts reduced (from -161,697 on Nov 24 to -90,747 on Nov 26), confirming unwinding.

Suggested Market Sentiments

Short-Term (Next 1–3 Days): Bullish. The Nov 26 rebound, coupled with FII short covering, options call dominance, and synchronized cash buying, suggests momentum continuation. Watch for sustained >26,200 Nifty hold; resistance at 26,300 (recent high).

Medium-Term (Next 1–2 Weeks): Cautiously Optimistic. DII support remains robust, but FII net selling persists overall. If cumulative futures OI turns positive, it could confirm uptrend; persistent negatives may cap gains at 26,500.

Risks: Renewed FII outflows (e.g., > -2,000 Cr/day) could trigger pullback to 25,800 support. Volatility high—options variation spiked +479,742 on Nov 26 (call buying?).

Visual Trends

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor .

Nifty 50 probable movement on 26.11.25

 

 Interpretation of the market sentiment based on the latest open interest (OI) data from 03-Nov-2025 to 25-Nov-2025 (focus on the most recent 5-6 trading sessions + today).

Key Observations (as of 25-Nov-2025)

Participant

Index Futures Net OI

Direction

Options Net OI

Overall Positioning

FII

–94,689

Strong short

–3,10,062 (very heavy short, mostly short calls + some short puts)

Very Bearish

DII

+42,501

Long

Lightly involved in options

Moderately Bullish

Pro

–7,900

Mild short

–1,14,132 (short)

Mildly Bearish

Total Market

–60,088 (futures)

Net short

–4,24,194 (options)

Bearish

Very Important Recent Changes (last 4 sessions)

What FIIs did yesterday (24→25 Nov)

Date

FII Index Futures change

FII Options OI change

24-Nov

Added ~55,000 short contracts (from –1,61,697 → –94,689)

Added massive short calls/puts

Extremely aggressive short-covering in futures + fresh shorting in options (very bearish)

21-24 Nov

Were adding shorts aggressively in futures

Were unwinding option shorts (covering)

Mixed

25-Nov

Sudden reversal: covered a huge amount of index future shorts (55k+ contracts) while adding fresh option shorts

+2,85,559 contracts added (almost entirely short calls + short strangles)

Classic FII bearish pattern: “short-covering rally trap”

Interpretation of 25-Nov Action (Most Critical Day)

FIIs covered ~55,000+ index future shorts → this created upward pressure and helped Nifty recover ~400 points intraday and close higher.

At the same time, FIIs added a massive 2,85,559 option contracts (almost certainly short calls around 25,800-26,000 CE and short puts lower down) → they are selling the bounce aggressively.

This is a typical FII “bearish continuation” strategy: let the market rally a bit on short covering, sell fresh calls at higher strikes, collect premium, and prepare for the next leg down.

Overall Market Sentiment (as of 25-Nov-2025 close)

Timeframe

Sentiment

Strength

Reason

Very short term (1-3 days)

Mildly Bullish / Sideways

Medium

FII short covering in futures still has some room; Nifty/BankNifty bounced sharply today

Short-to-Medium term (1-3 weeks)

Strongly Bearish

High

FIIs remain heavily net short in both futures and options; fresh option writing on the upside is aggressive

Dominant force

FII bearish conviction is very high

They are willing to cover some futures shorts to induce rallies and then sell calls aggressively at higher levels (distribution mode)

Supporting Evidence

Cumulative FII index + option net OI is the most negative in the entire data set (–94k futures + –3.1 lakh options = very heavy short).

Highest single-day option OI addition in the entire period happened on 25-Nov (+2.85 lakh) — almost entirely short.

DIIs are long in futures but their size is only ~40-45% of FII shorts → not enough to counter FIIs.

Cash segment: FIIs sold on 24-Nov (-4171 cr) but bought mildly today (+785 cr) → typical behavior when they cover futures shorts.

Trading Implications / Likely Scenarios

Expected Nifty Range (next 5-10 sessions)

Scenario

Probability

Bearish continuation (most likely)

65-70%

25,300 – 25,600 (fresh downside after short-term bounce exhausts)

Sideways consolidation

20-25%

25,700 – 26,200

Sustained bounce (least likely)

10%

Only if FIIs flip to net long in futures (not visible yet)

Bottom Line (as of 25-Nov-2025)

The sharp bounce today is largely FII index-futures short covering and should be treated as a selling opportunity by positional traders. FIIs remain heavily bearish overall and are aggressively writing calls on every rise. Until FII index futures net OI turns positive or at least crosses –50,000, the path of least resistance remains downward or sideways-lower.

Sentiment summary in one line:

“Short-term relief bounce inside a medium-term bearish trend; FIIs are selling the rally via options.”

Anish J Parashar

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Nifty50 movement today

 

Analysis of Open Interest Data and Market Sentiments

The  data tracks net open interest (OI) positions for Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Domestic Institutional Investors (DII), and Proprietary (Pro) traders in Nifty futures and options, along with cumulative OI, daily variations, index closings, and cash market flows (in INR crores). Dates are in DD_MM_YY format, with the latest on 24/11/25. Net OI represents the difference between long and short positions (positive = net long, negative = net short). High negative OI often signals hedging or bearish bets, while positive shifts indicate bullish positioning.

Key observations from trends (latest to earliest):

FII Activity: Consistently net short in both futures (-161,697 on 24/11) and options (-283,937 on 24/11), with cumulative futures OI net at -77,362 (improving from -113,284 on 11/11). Cash flows show net outflows (-4,171 Cr on 24/11), reinforcing bearish caution amid global uncertainties.

DII Counterbalance: Net long in futures (42,108 on 24/11, up from 38,812 on 10/11), absorbing FII selling. Cash inflows (4,512 Cr on 24/11) suggest domestic buying support.

Pro Traders: Mixed, net long in futures (42,227 on 24/11) but heavily net short in options (-425,816 on 24/11), indicating speculative bets against upside.

Cumulative & Variations: Overall futures OI remains net short but stabilizing; options deeply net short (-709,753 cumulative on 24/11). Daily futures variation shows mild unwinding (-1,118 on 24/11), while options variation is sharply negative (-189,413), hinting at put buying or call selling.

Index Performance: Nifty 50 closed at 25,959 (up from 25,574 on 10/11), Bank Nifty at 58,835—modest gains despite OI pressures, pointing to spot resilience.

Suggested Market Sentiments

Based on this data, sentiments lean cautiously bullish in the short term (1-2 weeks), driven by DII support offsetting FII shorts, but with bearish risks from elevated option shorts and cash outflows. Here's a breakdown:

Sentiment Category

Key Indicators

Implied Outlook

Confidence Level

Bullish (Short-Term)

- DII net long futures + cash inflows (e.g., +4,512 Cr on 24/11).- Pro net long futures.- Index uptrend (Nifty +385 pts in 2 weeks).

Domestic buying could push Nifty toward 26,200 if FII shorts unwind; supports dip-buying.

Medium (DII trend strong, but volatile).

Bearish (Medium-Term)

- FII heavy net shorts in futures/options + outflows (-4,171 Cr on 24/11).- Cumulative options OI deeply negative (-709,753).- Sharp option variation (-189,413 on 24/11) signals downside protection.

Potential pullback to 25,500 if global cues weaken; high put OI caps upside.

High (FII dominance in OI).

Neutral/Range-Bound

- Stabilizing cumulative futures OI (-77,362 vs. -108,207 on 10/11).- Mixed Pro positioning.

Sideways grind between 25,800-26,100; low daily futures variation (-1,118) suggests indecision.

Medium (awaiting expiry flows).

Recommendations

Bullish Bias: Enter longs on Nifty dips above 25,800, targeting 26,200, with stops below 25,700 (DII absorption key).

Bearish Hedge: Buy puts if Nifty breaks 25,800, given FII shorts; watch Bank Nifty (58,835) for banking sector weakness.

Overall: Sentiment tilts mildly positive due to domestic flows, but monitor FII cash for reversals. Expiry (likely 27/11) could trigger volatility from option unwinds.

This is derived purely from the data trends; external factors (e.g., global markets) could amplify shifts.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Nifty50 movement on 24th November 2025

Market sentiment on Monday, 24-Nov-2025 (next trading day).

Key Observations from the very latest data (21-Nov-2025)

Category

21-Nov Value

Change from 20-Nov

Remarks

FII Index Futures Net OI

–1,69,847

–4,282 (more short)

FIIs added fresh index short positions (highest short in the entire data set)

DII Index Futures Net OI

+59,897

–6,791 (reduced long)

DIIs reduced some long positions

Cumulative Index Futures Net OI

–76,244

+4,135 (less short)

Slightly reduced net short because of DII/Pro covering

FII Options Net OI

–2,38,637

–1,07,787 (huge short added)

Massive short buildup in options (calls + puts)

Pro Options Net OI

–2,81,703

Very large increase in short

Pros also heavily short in options

Cumulative Options Net OI

–5,20,340

–4,20,765 (huge short)

Largest single-day option short buildup in the entire 5-6 month data

FII Cash (21-Nov)

–1,766 Cr

Switched to net selling after two days of buying

DII Cash (21-Nov)

+3,161 Cr

Continued buying but lower than previous days

What happened on Friday 21-Nov

Nifty closed at 26,068 (−124 pts, ≈ −0.47%) and Bank Nifty at 58,867 (−480 pts).

Very heavy short buildup by FIIs both in futures and especially in options.

The –4.2 lakh contracts added in cumulative option OI (net short) on a single day is extreme and rarely seen unless institutions are positioning for a sharp fall or very high volatility.

FIIs are now carrying their highest-ever index futures short and very large option shorts.

Interpretation for Monday 24-Nov-2025

Very high probability of bearish / highly cautious sentiment

FIIs are aggressively short

Highest index futures short in the entire data series.

Added massive option shorts on Friday → typical positioning ahead of a decline or a volatility spike (VIX hedging + directional short).

Options data is screaming caution

The single-day +4.2 lakh contracts net short in options is one of the largest bearish build-ups seen in recent months.

When both FIIs and Pros are short options heavily, the market usually opens weak and stays under pressure unless very strong positive trigger appears.

DII support is present but weakening

DIIs reduced index futures longs and their cash buying (₹3,161 Cr) is decent but much lower than the ₹5-8K Cr levels seen on some previous days when they absorbed heavy FII selling.

If FIIs continue selling on Monday, DII firepower may not be sufficient.

Technical context (as of Friday close)

Nifty has already broken below 26,200–26,300 support zone.

Next major supports are 25,500–25,700 zone and then 25,000 psychological level.

With this kind of OI buildup, a move toward 25,500–25,800 in the next 2-3 sessions is very much on the cards unless global cues turn extremely positive.

Expected sentiment & probable price action on Monday

Expected Nifty opening / early move

Scenario

Probability

Key trigger to watch

Gap-down & sustained selling (most likely)

65–70%

25,800–26,000 (gap down 70–250 pts)

Continuation of FII shorting + global weakness

Flat-to-mildly negative

20–25%

26,000–26,100

Some short covering + mild DII buying

Strong bounce (least likely)

5–10%

Above 26,200

Very strong global risk-on + FII short covering

Trading takeaway for 24-Nov

Dominant sentiment: Strongly bearish to cautious

Bias: Short / hedged positions favoured

High risk of a gap-down opening and follow-through selling toward 25,800–25,900 initially, and 25,500–25,700 in the next few sessions if FIIs keep adding shorts.

Any intraday bounce toward 26,150–26,250 should be treated as a selling opportunity unless FIIs start aggressive short-covering (we will know from live FII index futures data).

So, unless there is a major positive global trigger over the weekend (US markets rally strongly, positive macro news, etc.), expect the Indian market to open weak and remain under pressure on Monday.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Market Sentiment Interpretation 24 th November 2025

 Market Sentiment Interpretation – 17 Nov to 21 Nov 2025 (5 trading sessions)

Date

Nifty Close

Daily Chg

FII Cash (₹ Cr)

DII Cash (₹ Cr)

Cum. Futures OI Net

Cum. Options OI Net

Key Observation

17-Nov

26,013

+103

+442

+1,465

–105,928

–223,154

Mild profit booking

18-Nov

25,910

–103

–728

+6,156

–106,371

–362,462

Heavy DII buying

19-Nov

26,052

+142

+1,580

+1,360

–100,335

–117,250

FII turned buyer

20-Nov

26,192

+140

+283

+824

–80,379

–99,575

Strong covering

21-Nov

26,068

–124

–1,766

+3,161

–76,244

–520,340

Sharp bearish shift

Key Sentiment Signals (as of 21-Nov close)

Price Action

Nifty made a high of ~26,192 on 20-Nov and fell 124 pts on 21-Nov → first meaningful correction after 5-session rally.

Still up ~+55 pts from 17-Nov levels → medium-term trend remains up.

Cash Market Flows

FIIs flipped from buying (+1,580 Cr on 19th) to aggressive selling (–1,766 Cr on 21st).

DIIs absorbed everything (+3,161 Cr on 21st, +6,156 Cr on 18th) → strong domestic hands.

Index Futures OI

FII net short reduced from –169k → –165k on 20th (short covering) but again added shorts on 21st (–169.8k).

DII net long steadily increased.

Cumulative futures net short reduced from –106k → –76k (less bearish than earlier in the week).

21-Nov saw +4,135 contracts added while price fell → mild fresh short build-up, but not aggressive.

Index Options OI – The Big Red Flag

Cumulative options OI swung from –99k (20-Nov) to –520k (21-Nov) → a massive –421k contracts added in a single day.

Almost entirely driven by FIIs & Pros turning heavy net short in options (call writing + put buying).

This is the most bearish single-day options swing in the entire Nov series so far → indicates institutions are aggressively hedging/preparing for downside or higher volatility.

Current Market Sentiment Summary (as of 21-Nov-2025 close

Time Frame

Sentiment

Confidence

Key Driver

Very Short Term (Mon–Wed)

Bearish to Very Bearish

High

Huge options short build-up + FII cash selling

1–2 Weeks

Cautiously Bullish

Medium

DII cash support + futures shorts not extreme

Trend (Nov series)

Still Bullish (DII-led)

Medium-High

Nifty +300 pts in 3 weeks despite FII selling

Trading Implications

Expect heightened volatility and possible test of 25,800–25,900 zone early next week.

Any close below 25,900 with continued options short build-up will turn sentiment properly bearish.

As long as DII cash remains > ₹2,500–3,000 Cr and cumulative futures OI net stays above –80k, dips will continue to get bought (classic “buy on dips, sell on rises” market).

Options players: Very high call writing at 26,200–26,500 strikes → strong resistance; put base building at 26,000–25,800.

Bottom Line

The market is currently in a short-term bearish phase inside a medium-term DII-supported bull trend.

21-Nov’s monstrous options selling is a clear warning sign for the next 2–5 sessions, but the underlying strength from domestic institutions is still intact.

Trade accordingly: lighten longs/aggressively hedge above 26,200, but avoid fresh shorts unless Nifty sustains below 25,900.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Recent Market Sentiment Analysis

 Recent Market Sentiment Analysis (Nov 17 – Nov 20, 2025)

The last four sessions show a clear shift to bullish sentiment, with both Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty grinding higher (+179 points and +385 points respectively) while participant behaviour has turned decisively constructive — especially in the last two sessions.

Price + OI Combined Signals (Daily)

Date

Nifty Move

Cum Futures OI Change

Cum Options OI Change

Combined Signal

20 Nov

+140

+19,956

+17,675

Strong bullish (fresh longs)

19 Nov

+142

+6,036

+245,212

Very strong bullish (huge fresh positions, especially options)

18 Nov

–103

–443

–139,308

Mild long liquidation / profit booking

17 Nov

(reference)

 The last two sessions are among the strongest bullish OI + price combinations seen in recent months. The massive +245k options OI addition on 19 Nov 19 (while index rose 142 points) is particularly aggressive buying — typically seen when institutions are adding fresh long gamma or call positions with conviction.

Participant Position Changes (17 Nov → 20 Nov)

Participant

Futures Net Change

Options Net Change

Interpretation

FII

+3,720

+68,677

Short covering in both futures & options — clear reduction in bearish bets

DII

+12,008

(not directly shown but supportive via cash)

Aggressive long addition in futures

Pro

+9,821

+54,902

Flipped strongly net long in options, added futures longs

Cumulative

+25,549 (less net short)

+123,579 (much less net short)

Market structure turning from net short to neutral/bullish

FIIs have covered the equivalent of ~72k lots of bearish exposure in just three sessions — this is a significant sentiment reversal from the heavy short build-up seen in the first half of November.

Cash Market Flows (Last 4 sessions)

FII cash: +283 + 1,580 – 728 + 442 = +1,577 Cr net buying

DII cash: +824 + 1,360 + 6,156 + 1,465 = +9,805 Cr

Domestic institutions continue to absorb everything, and now FIIs have also turned net buyers in cash over these four days.

Current Market Sentiment Summary (as of 20 Nov close)

Short-term sentiment: Strongly Bullish

The combination of:

Price up + OI up on heavy volume (especially 19–20 Nov)

FII short covering in both futures and options

Pro desks flipping aggressively net long

Return of FII cash buying signals that the corrective/bearish phase from early–mid November is likely over. The market has flipped from "FII short + DII support = grudging grind higher" to "FII covering + DII buying + Pro long = genuine buying conviction".

Expected near-term bias: Upside continuation. Nifty 26,400–26,600 and Bank Nifty 60,000+ are realistic targets unless FIIs suddenly reverse and add shorts again (currently not happening).

The bearish overhang that dominated the first half of November has been substantially reduced in just three sessions. This is one of the cleanest bullish shifts in derivative positioning seen in the past 2–3 months.

Trade implication: Long bias favoured. Trail stops below 25,900–26,000 zone. Any dip towards 26,050–26000 likely to be bought aggressively.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Open Interest (OI)

 

Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Open Interest (OI)

The data spans from November 3 to November 18, 2025, focusing on Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank indices. Open Interest (OI) reflects the net positions of institutional players: positive net OI typically indicates long (bullish) bias, while negative indicates short (bearish) bias. I've analyzed trends in futures and options OI for FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors), DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors), and proprietary traders, alongside cumulative net OI, daily OI variations, cash flows, and index price changes.

Key insights:

• Overall Trend: Nifty 50 closed at 25,910 on Nov 18 (down 103 points from Nov 17), after a volatile period with a net gain of ~147 points since Nov 3. Cumulative futures OI remains deeply negative (-106,371 on Nov 18), signaling dominant short positions. However, DIIs' bullish activity is countering FII bearishness, leading to mixed sentiment with cautious optimism in the short term.
• Futures OI Sentiment: Bearish dominance from FIIs, offset by DII longs.
• Options OI Sentiment: Heavy short positions (negative net), suggesting hedging or bearish bets, but recent unwinding indicates potential stabilization.
• Cash Market: FII selling pressure vs. DII buying support, aligning with OI trends.

Summary Table: Key OI Trends and Sentiment Indicators

Date	Nifty 50 Close	Nifty Change	FII Futures Net OI	FII Futures Change	DII Futures Net OI	DII Futures Change	Cumulative Futures Net OI	Cumulative Futures Change	FII Options Net OI	FII Options Change	Cumulative Options Net OI	Cumulative Options Change	FII Cash (₹ Cr)	DII Cash (₹ Cr)	Daily Sentiment
2025-11-03	25,763	-	-6,154	-	603	-	-9,137	-	19,958	-	99,892	-	-1,883	3,516	Neutral (Low volume)
2025-11-04	25,597	-166	-135,218	-129,064	38,038	+37,435	-102,745	-93,608	-231,981	-251,939	-457,910	-557,802	-1,067	1,202	Bearish (FII short build on price drop)
2025-11-06	25,509	-88	-137,854	-2,636	39,219	+1,181	-100,380	+2,365	-264,384	-32,403	-473,450	-15,540	-3,263	5,283	Bearish (Continued FII shorts)
2025-11-07	25,492	-17	-152,091	-14,237	38,941	-278	-109,095	-8,715	-264,059	+325	-367,461	+105,989	4,581	6,674	Mildly Bearish (FII shorts deepen)
2025-11-10	25,574	+82	-156,707	-4,616	38,812	-129	-108,207	+888	-262,622	+1,437	-387,763	-20,302	-4,114	5,805	Neutral (Price up, but OI stable)
2025-11-11	25,694	+120	-159,830	-3,123	38,841	+29	-113,284	-5,077	-222,413	+40,209	-329,973	+57,790	-803	2,188	Bullish Tilt (DII longs on price rise)
2025-11-12	25,875	+181	-162,240	-2,410	49,922	+11,081	-103,811	+9,473	-162,881	+59,532	-179,147	+150,826	-1,750	5,127	Bullish (DII build + price surge)
2025-11-13	25,879	+4	-159,947	+2,293	49,920	-2	-96,919	+6,892	-204,720	-41,839	-274,646	-95,499	-383	3,091	Neutral (OI unwinding)
2025-11-14	25,910	+31	-169,619	-9,672	54,005	+4,085	-106,049	-9,130	-246,488	-41,768	-360,238	-85,592	-4,968	8,461	Bearish Tilt (FII shorts on mild up)
2025-11-17	26,013	+103	-169,285	+334	53,680	-325	-105,928	+121	-199,527	+46,961	-223,154	+137,084	442	1,465	Bullish (Price up, FII shorts ease)
2025-11-18	25,910	-103	-168,789	+496	53,772	+92	-106,371	-443	-244,613	-45,086	-362,462	-139,308	-728	6,156	Cautious (Price drop, OI stable)

Detailed Sentiment Breakdown

1. FII Perspective (Bearish Bias):
   • Futures: Net short positions escalated from -6k (Nov 3) to -169k (peak on Nov 17), with ~$1.3B equivalent short build early in the period. Recent easing (+496 on Nov 18) suggests minor short covering, but overall bearish.
   • Options: Deeply negative net OI (-244k on Nov 18), indicating short calls (bullish if for premium, but contextually bearish hedging). Unwinding on up days (e.g., +47k on Nov 17) shows reduced caution.
   • Cash: Net outflow of ~₹11,000 Cr over the period, with selling on 8/11 days. Supports bearish view.
2. DII Perspective (Bullish Counterbalance):
   • Futures: Net long build from 603 to 53,772 (+5,300% growth), with consistent additions (e.g., +11k on Nov 12). This absorbed FII shorts, stabilizing cumulative OI.
   • Options: Less pronounced, but positive shifts (e.g., pro options from -236k to -118k recently) hint at defensive buying.
   • Cash: Net inflow of ~₹46,000 Cr, buying on 9/11 days. DIIs are the key support amid FII exits.
3. Cumulative & Price-OI Dynamics:
   • Futures: Negative cumulative OI (-106k) with daily variations showing short covering on up days (e.g., +121 OI change on Nov 17 price +103) – bullish long accumulation. On down days (e.g., Nov 18), OI deepened (-443), signaling fresh shorts.
   • Options: Extreme volatility (from +99k to -473k), but recent net negative (-362k) with large unwinds (+137k on Nov 17) suggests reduced fear (bullish).
   • Nifty Bank mirrors Nifty (up ~1.4% overall to 58,899), with similar OI patterns.

Overall Market Sentiment Suggestion

• Short-Term (Next 1-2 Weeks): Cautiously Bullish. DII buying and FII short covering are propping up prices despite FII bearishness. Watch for Nifty hold above 25,800; break below could trigger FII-driven downside.
• Medium-Term: Neutral to Bearish. Persistent FII outflows and negative cumulative futures OI point to vulnerability if global cues weaken (e.g., US rates). Options OI buildup signals hedging, not conviction.
• Recommendations: Monitor Nov 19-21 for OI changes. Bullish if DII futures longs exceed +5k/day; bearish if FII shorts rebuild below -170k.

This analysis uses standard OI interpretation: rising OI + price up = strong bull; falling OI + price up = weak bull (short cover).

Anish Jagdish Parashar

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