Market sentiment on Monday, 24-Nov-2025 (next trading day).
Key Observations from the very latest data (21-Nov-2025)
Category
21-Nov Value
Change from 20-Nov
Remarks
FII Index Futures Net OI
–1,69,847
–4,282 (more short)
FIIs added fresh index short positions (highest short in the entire data set)
DII Index Futures Net OI
+59,897
–6,791 (reduced long)
DIIs reduced some long positions
Cumulative Index Futures Net OI
–76,244
+4,135 (less short)
Slightly reduced net short because of DII/Pro covering
FII Options Net OI
–2,38,637
–1,07,787 (huge short added)
Massive short buildup in options (calls + puts)
Pro Options Net OI
–2,81,703
Very large increase in short
Pros also heavily short in options
Cumulative Options Net OI
–5,20,340
–4,20,765 (huge short)
Largest single-day option short buildup in the entire 5-6 month data
FII Cash (21-Nov)
–1,766 Cr
Switched to net selling after two days of buying
DII Cash (21-Nov)
+3,161 Cr
Continued buying but lower than previous days
What happened on Friday 21-Nov
Nifty closed at 26,068 (−124 pts, ≈ −0.47%) and Bank Nifty at 58,867 (−480 pts).
Very heavy short buildup by FIIs both in futures and especially in options.
The –4.2 lakh contracts added in cumulative option OI (net short) on a single day is extreme and rarely seen unless institutions are positioning for a sharp fall or very high volatility.
FIIs are now carrying their highest-ever index futures short and very large option shorts.
Interpretation for Monday 24-Nov-2025
Very high probability of bearish / highly cautious sentiment
FIIs are aggressively short
Highest index futures short in the entire data series.
Added massive option shorts on Friday → typical positioning ahead of a decline or a volatility spike (VIX hedging + directional short).
Options data is screaming caution
The single-day +4.2 lakh contracts net short in options is one of the largest bearish build-ups seen in recent months.
When both FIIs and Pros are short options heavily, the market usually opens weak and stays under pressure unless very strong positive trigger appears.
DII support is present but weakening
DIIs reduced index futures longs and their cash buying (₹3,161 Cr) is decent but much lower than the ₹5-8K Cr levels seen on some previous days when they absorbed heavy FII selling.
If FIIs continue selling on Monday, DII firepower may not be sufficient.
Technical context (as of Friday close)
Nifty has already broken below 26,200–26,300 support zone.
Next major supports are 25,500–25,700 zone and then 25,000 psychological level.
With this kind of OI buildup, a move toward 25,500–25,800 in the next 2-3 sessions is very much on the cards unless global cues turn extremely positive.
Expected sentiment & probable price action on Monday
Expected Nifty opening / early move
Scenario
Probability
Key trigger to watch
Gap-down & sustained selling (most likely)
65–70%
25,800–26,000 (gap down 70–250 pts)
Continuation of FII shorting + global weakness
Flat-to-mildly negative
20–25%
26,000–26,100
Some short covering + mild DII buying
Strong bounce (least likely)
5–10%
Above 26,200
Very strong global risk-on + FII short covering
Trading takeaway for 24-Nov
Dominant sentiment: Strongly bearish to cautious
Bias: Short / hedged positions favoured
High risk of a gap-down opening and follow-through selling toward 25,800–25,900 initially, and 25,500–25,700 in the next few sessions if FIIs keep adding shorts.
Any intraday bounce toward 26,150–26,250 should be treated as a selling opportunity unless FIIs start aggressive short-covering (we will know from live FII index futures data).
So, unless there is a major positive global trigger over the weekend (US markets rally strongly, positive macro news, etc.), expect the Indian market to open weak and remain under pressure on Monday.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
