📊 Nifty 50 Derivatives + Price Structure Analysis (for next session)
Spot close: 25,471
Bank Nifty: 60,186
🔴 1. Participant Positioning (Trend Strength Check)
Futures
FII index futures: strongly net short (-1.47 lakh) → trend-side pressure intact
DII futures: long build-up (+76k) → cushioning but not trend reversing
Pro: light short
👉 Cumulative futures OI: –83k → shorts still dominant, no squeeze signal.
Options
FII options: heavy net short (-3.43 lakh)
Pro options: net short (-1.68 lakh)
Cumulative options OI: –5.11 lakh
👉 This is short volatility + directional hedge → indicates downside risk with controlled moves (not panic crash).
Daily OI change
Futures: –7.3k → mild short reduction
Options: –1.75 lakh → writers covering slightly after fall
➡️ Interpretation:
Trend bearish, but intraday bounce possible due to partial covering.
🧠 2. Price Structure
From chart:
Price below all key moving averages
Rejection near 25,650–25,700 supply zone
Momentum oscillators turning down again
Volume increased on down candles → distribution
👉 Structure = bearish lower-high continuation
🧮 3. Option Chain Positioning
Major Call OI
25,500
25,600
25,800
26,000 (highest)
➡️ Strong overhead resistance ladder.
Major Put OI
25,000 (largest)
25,300
25,400
👉 Put base shifting lower → bearish undertone.
PCR (visual estimate)
Put OI < Call OI above spot → PCR < 1 → bearish bias.
📍 4. Key Levels for Tomorrow
Resistance
25,520 – 25,550 → intraday supply
25,650 → trend reversal trigger
25,800 → short covering zone
Support
25,300 → first test level
25,150 → breakdown trigger
25,000 → put base / magnet
📉 5. Probable Scenarios
Base Case (Higher Probability ~60%)
Range to down
Open flat/weak
Bounce to 25,520–25,560
Sell-off towards 25,300 → 25,150
Reason:
FII short dominance
Call wall at 25,500+
Lower-high pattern intact
Bearish Expansion (~25%)
If 25,150 breaks with OI addition
➡️ Fast move to 25,000
Short Covering Bounce (~15%)
Only if:
Sustained above 25,650
Futures OI drop + price up
➡️ then 25,800 possible
Currently low probability.
🏦 6. Bank Nifty Context
Bank Nifty still relatively stronger but:
Not making higher highs
If it breaks 59,800, Nifty downside will accelerate.
🧭 7. Market Sentiment Summary
Trend: Bearish
Regime: Range → Sell on rise
Volatility: Controlled (writers active)
Flow: FII dominant shorts
👉 This is distribution phase, not capitulation.
🎯 8. Trade Structure for Tomorrow
Intraday Bias
Sell on rise near: 25,520 – 25,560
Option Strategies
Bear Call Spread (High probability)
Sell 25,600 CE
Buy 25,800 CE
Why:
Uses call wall
Works in range/down
Low IV expansion risk
Directional Put (if breakdown)
Buy 25,300 PE only if:
Spot < 25,150
OI build on downside
⚠️ 9. Invalidation Level
Bullish only above: 25,650 (sustained)
🧾 Final Professional View
Persistent FII short positioning in index futures combined with aggressive call writing at 25,500–25,800 and a downward-shifting put base suggests a continuation of the sell-on-rise regime. The price remains below key moving averages with a confirmed lower-high formation, indicating distribution rather than capitulation. Unless 25,650 is reclaimed with short covering, Nifty is likely to drift toward 25,300 and potentially test the 25,000 put base.
🌳 Nifty Expiry Binary Decision Tree (Based on Current OI + Flows)
Spot reference: 25,471
Regime: Sell on rise | Call writers dominant | FII short
🧭 Root Node → Opening Location
🔹 Case 1: Open below 25,450
Bias: Immediate weakness
➡️ Node 1A: 25,300 breaks (with OI build in futures + PE writing reduction)
→ Path: 25,150 → 25,000 (Put base test)
→ Probability: High (35%)
→ Strategy: Long 25,300 PE or bear put spread
➡️ Node 1B: Holds 25,300 (Put writers defend)
→ Path: 25,300 – 25,550 range
→ Probability: Moderate (20%)
→ Strategy: Iron condor / short strangle (hedged)
🔹 Case 2: Open between 25,450 – 25,600
Bias: Sell on rise zone
➡️ Node 2A: Rejection at 25,550 with call OI addition
→ Path: 25,300 retest
→ Probability: Highest (40%)
→ Strategy: Bear call spread (25,600–25,800)
➡️ Node 2B: Sustains above 25,650 (price ↑ + futures OI ↓)
→ Path: Short covering → 25,800
→ Probability: Low (15%)
→ Strategy: Bull call spread (25,600–25,800)
🔹 Case 3: Open above 25,650
Bias: Short covering attempt
➡️ Node 3A: Fails to hold 25,650
→ Bull trap → 25,400 → 25,300
→ Probability: Moderate (25%)
➡️ Node 3B: Holds 25,650 + call OI unwinding
→ 25,800 magnet
→ Probability: Low (10%)
🧱 OI Heatmap Interpretation (Structural)
🔴 Call Side Wall
Strike
Interpretation
25,500
Immediate intraday supply
25,600
Strong writer defense
25,800
Positional resistance
26,000
Absolute cap
👉 Laddered call writing = ceiling compression
🟢 Put Side Base
Strike
Interpretation
25,400
Weak support (new writing)
25,300
Intraday pivot support
25,000
Major positional base
⚠️ Put OI shifted down from 25,500 earlier → bearish undertone
📊 OI Imbalance Read
Call OI >> Put OI above spot
Put base far below spot
➡️ Downside vacuum till 25,300
This structure typically produces:
Slow grind down
Sharp bounce from put base
No sustained rally without call unwinding
🧮 Expiry Max Pain Projection
Heavy OI clusters:
Calls: 25,500–25,800
Puts: 25,000–25,300
👉 Max pain zone: 25,300 – 25,500
Writers will try to pin inside this band unless a strong trigger.
📉 Flow + Structure Synthesis
✔ FII futures short intact
✔ Option writers net short
✔ Price below VWAP bands & MAs
✔ Lower high on daily
➡️ Expiry magnet: 25,300
➡️ Extreme tail: 25,000
🎯 Probability Map (Expiry)
Level
Probability
25,800+
10%
25,500–25,650
20%
25,300–25,500
40% (max pain zone)
25,000–25,300
25%
Below 25,000
5%
🧩 Best Expiry Structures
🔹 High Probability (Range Down)
Bear Call Spread
Sell 25,600 CE
Buy 25,800 CE
🔹 Max Pain Capture
Iron Condor
Sell 25,600 CE
Sell 25,200 PE
(Hedge wings 25,800 CE / 25,000 PE)
🔹 Breakdown Play
Only if 25,150 breaks with OI build
→ Long 25,300 PE
⚠️ Key Real-Time Triggers to Monitor
Bullish only if:
Price > 25,650
Futures OI ↓ with price ↑
Call OI unwinding at 25,500
Bearish confirmation if:
Price < 25,300
Put OI unwinds
Futures OI ↑ on red candles
🧾 Professional One-Line Summary
The OI heatmap reflects a call-dominated ceiling at 25,500–25,800 with a lowered put base at 25,000, positioning the market in a sell-on-rise regime where expiry is statistically likely to gravitate toward the 25,300–25,500 max pain band unless 25,650 is reclaimed with aggressive short covering.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
