🔥 Market Pulse: Derivatives Heatmap Signals Ahead of Expiry – FIIs Defensive, PROs Aggressive
📅 Data Comparison: June 24 vs June 25, 2025
Focus: Participant-Wise Positioning in Equity Derivatives (Nifty 50 Outlook)
📈 Heatmap Insights – What Changed in 24 Hours?
The visual heatmap below highlights the shift in derivative positions between June 24 and June 25, 2025. Let’s decode what’s happening behind the numbers:
🔍 Participant-Wise Key Takeaways:
🟠 Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Hedging for Downside
Put Longs increased by +125,912 contracts → Stronger downside hedge
Put Shorts rose by +77,278 contracts → Possible volatility capture or base support
Call Shorts reduced by –21,492 → Less pressure on the upside
Index Futures Shorts dropped slightly → Still net bearish, but moderating
✅ Interpretation:
FIIs are getting more cautious, but simultaneously writing puts suggests they may see limited downside from here.
🟢 Proprietary Traders (PROs): Expiry Game in Play
Index Futures Longs increased significantly by +16,180 contracts
Put Shorts rose by +271,905 contracts
Call Shorts up by +12,715 contracts
✅ Interpretation:
PROs are playing expiry tightly, betting on a rangebound market with limited movement around Nifty’s current zone.
🔵 Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Subtle Shift
Index Futures Longs dropped by –1,574 contracts
Futures Shorts up by +2,500 contracts
Stable Option positioning – no major directional bets
✅ Interpretation:
DIIs are still mildly bullish, but cautious ahead of expiry, preferring to hedge positions via stock futures.
🧭 Nifty 50 Outlook – June 26, 2025
Key Level Value (Spot Basis)
Support 24,950 – 25,050
Resistance 25,300 – 25,400
Likely Expiry Range 25,000 – 25,300
With FIIs hedging and PROs capping both sides via options, the index may remain pinned in a narrow expiry band unless a global catalyst disrupts the flow.
📝 Conclusion
📌 The heatmap reveals a market on guard but not panicked.
💡 Smart money is hedging, not fleeing.
📈 A bounce or short-covering rally isn’t ruled out — but upside is capped near 25,350–400.
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