NIFTY 50 – Market Sentiment (as of 29-12-25)
Close: 25,942
Trend Context: Range-to-bearish with fading upside momentum
1️⃣ Futures Positioning – Clear Bearish Bias (No Short Cover Yet)
What stands out
FII futures: persistently net short and increasing
29 Dec: –1.55 lakh contracts
Cumulative futures OI: –1.08 lakh → shorts still dominant
Daily futures OI change: –9,221
→ Mild reduction, but not meaningful short covering
Interpretation
FIIs are not unwinding shorts aggressively
DIIs are supporting, but not strong enough to flip trend
This is distribution / sell-on-rise, not trend reversal
📌 Futures signal: Bearish to neutral, downside risk intact
2️⃣ Options OI – Heavy Ceiling, Weak Put Support
Key observations
Cumulative option OI: –6.11 lakh (deeply negative)
FII option OI: –2.93 lakh
PRO option OI: –3.18 lakh
Daily option OI change: +15,262 → Fresh option writing, mostly calls
What this tells us
Strong call writing above spot
Put writers are not defending aggressively
Upside rallies are being sold into
📌 Options signal: Strong upside supply, weak downside conviction
3️⃣ Cash Market – Distribution, Not Accumulation
FII cash: –₹2,759 Cr
DII cash: +₹2,643 Cr
Interpretation
Classic FII sell → DII absorb
This stalls upside, but doesn’t create trending rally
Index drifts lower or remains capped
📌 Cash signal: Range cap remains
4️⃣ Chart Read (Attached) – Momentum Rolling Over
Price & Structure
Price below short EMAs, struggling near VWAP zone
High Volume Node (HVN) visible near 26,000–26,100 → strong rejection area
Indicators
MACD: bearish crossover, histogram negative
RSI (14): ~49 → Below bullish zone, no positive divergence
📌 Chart signal: Weak bounce attempts, sellers active near 26k
5️⃣ Key Levels (Derived from OI + Chart)
Resistance (Sell-on-rise zone)
26,000 – 26,100 → HVN + call writing
26,200 → strong call defense
Supports
25,800 → minor support
25,650 – 25,600 → VWAP + EMA zone
25,400 → breakdown risk zone
6️⃣ Market Sentiment Summary
Overall Bias: ⚠️ Bearish-to-Range
FIIs remain structurally short (futures + options)
Upside rallies are likely to be capped
Any bounce towards 26,000+ is a selling opportunity
No evidence yet of trend-changing short covering
7️⃣ Tactical Outlook (Very Important)
For Bulls
Avoid positional longs below 26,100
Only scalp longs near VWAP / 25,600–25,700 with strict SL
For Bears
Preferred strategy: Sell on rise
Aggressive shorts only below 25,800
Safe positional shorts: 26,000–26,100 rejection
One-Line Verdict
“This is not a trending bull market—it is a structurally short, option-capped market where rallies are distribution events, not breakouts.”
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
