Nifty50 probable movement
1️⃣ View and Vision
Futures positioning (Index)
FIIs:
Net –1.39 lakh contracts → persistent structural short
DIIs:
Net +36.6k → supporting market on declines
PROs:
Small long (+3.8k) → tactical, not aggressive
Cumulative futures OI: –98,707
Daily futures OI change: –16,665
📌 Interpretation
This is not fresh short build-up.
This is gradual short covering by FIIs, but without flipping net long.
➡️ Bias: Short covering rally exhausted near resistance, not trend reversal.
Options positioning (very important)
FII option OI net: –2.88 lakh
PRO option OI net: –3.37 lakh
Cumulative option OI: –6.26 lakh
Daily option OI change: –2.02 lakh
📌 Interpretation
Heavy option short covering already done
Volatility compression phase ending
No fresh aggressive directional option bets
➡️ Bias: Market is losing momentum after covering phase.
Cash market
FII cash: –₹317 Cr
DII cash: +₹1,772 Cr
📌 Interpretation
FIIs are still sellers on rise
DIIs absorbing supply → preventing sharp fall
➡️ Bias: Sell-on-rise supply from FIIs continues.
2️⃣ What the chart (attached) confirms technically
Price & Volume Profile OI based(VPVR)
Major HVN zone. OI based: 25,950 – 26,100
Current close: 26,042
📌 Price is sitting inside value, not expanding away from it.
➡️ Market condition: Balance / auction zone
Moving averages
Price below short-term MA
Above long-term MA (200 DMA area ~25,600)
➡️ Structure:
Short-term: weak
Medium-term: still protected
Momentum indicators
RSI ~53 → neutral, no strength
MACD: mild positive crossover but flat histogram
➡️ Momentum: Dying upside momentum, not trending
3️⃣ Multi-day OI context (important)
From 05-12 to 26-12:
Every rally attempt happened with:
FII futures still net short
Option OI reducing (covering), not building
Each time covering ended → price stalled near 26,100–26,200
📌 This is textbook range distribution, not accumulation.
4️⃣ Final Market Sentiment (Concise)
🔴 Primary Sentiment
Neutral to Mild Bearish (Sell on Rise)
Why?
Rally was driven by short covering, not fresh longs
FIIs continue to sell cash
Options show no fresh bullish build-up
Price stuck at value area resistance
5️⃣ Key Levels (Actionable)
Resistance (Supply Zone)
26,100 – 26,200 → strongest sell zone
Break & hold above 26,250 with fresh futures long build-up needed for trend change
Support (Demand Zone)
25,950 – 25,900 → first support (HVN)
25,650 – 25,600 → critical (200 DMA + long-term value)
6️⃣ Tactical Playbook
📌 If market opens flat / mildly up
Sell calls / short futures near 26,150–26,200
Expect mean reversion back to VWAP / HVN
📌 If market breaks below 25,900 with OI addition
Short continuation
Targets: 25,750 → 25,600
📌 Bullish only if:
Futures OI turns positive
Option OI builds on put side
Price accepts above 26,250
(None of this is present as of 26-12-25)
7️⃣ One-line conclusion (research-ready)
Nifty remains in a distribution phase where rallies are being capped by FII supply; unless fresh long OI emerges above 26,250, the market is likely to oscillate with a sell-on-rise bias toward 25,900–25,600.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
