Wyckoff Analysis – Nifty 50 (20th June Data)
(Key Adjustments: FIIs are net short in both futures and options, aligning with their hedging/speculative stance.)Institutional Activity (Critical Correction)
FIIs:
Futures show a net short of -57,755 contracts (cumulative). In options, they are net short, not long, with an index options net sell of -12,987 contracts (daily). This implies FIIs are hedging downside risks or betting on stagnation.
DIIs are net buyers in cash (+7,940), providing a counterbalance. Pro traders are net short (-3,049), aligning with FIIs’ caution.
Wyckoff Phase Assessment
Accumulation (Confirmed):
Price action shows repeated tests of 24,750–24,900 (16th–19th June) with higher lows and a spring-like bounce from 24,926 (stop-loss for shorts) on 20th June.
Volume and open interest indicate declining sell-side pressure (FII futures shorts reduced from -101,743 to -57,755), with DIIs absorbing supply through cash market support.
Markup (Early Signs):
Nifty crossed 25,000 with +1.29% gains (1-hour chart). Hurdles include 25,252 (R2), the first supply zone, and 25,377 (R3), a strong resistance from a previous distribution area. Confirmation requires a sustained close above 25,252 with rising volume and FIIs further reducing futures shorts. A failure to hold 25,052 (R1) may signal a false breakout, revisiting 24,926–24,750.
Key Levels & Labels
The level 25,377 (R3) is a resistance and distribution zone where profit-taking is likely.
25,252 (R2) is the breakout confirmation level.
25,052 (R1) serves as a support and intraday pullback pivot.
24,926 is a critical stop-loss, marking the accumulation low; a breach invalidates the markup.
24,750 is a strong support, representing the accumulation base and a tug-of-war between DIIs and FIIs.
Probable Scenarios
Bullish (30% Probability): A close above 25,377 targets 25,500–25,600, requiring FIIs to cover shorts and DIIs to sustain cash buys.
Bearish (50% Probability): Rejection at R2/R3 resumes a downtrend to 24,750, triggered by FIIs increasing futures shorts or DIIs stepping back.
Range-Bound (20%): Choppy action between 25,052–25,377 until clearer signals emerge.
Trading Plan
For longs, enter only above 25,252 with a stop-loss at 25,052, targeting 25,377.
For shorts, enter below 24,926, targeting 24,750 with a stop at 25,052.
Watch FII futures open interest over the next two sessions and DII cash market activity for continuation of support.
Data Gaps & Next Steps
Monitor NSE’s FII/DII activity sheet for updates.
Final Note
The market is at a tipping point. FIIs’ heavy shorts in futures and options suggest skepticism, but DIIs’ buying could fuel a markup if sustained. Trade levels, not biases.
Sources: NSE oi data,
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