Nifty 50 – Probable Movement & Critical Levels
Date: August 14, 2025
FII: Bearish DII: Mild Long PRO: Long Futures / Short Options
Executive Summary
The participant-wise Open Interest (OI) in equity derivatives signals a short-term bearish bias for Nifty 50. FIIs are holding aggressive shorts in both index futures and options. DIIs and Pros provide some long support, but insufficient to offset FII positions. Expect selling on rallies unless Nifty breaks above 25,100 with volume, triggering short covering.
Participant-wise OI Snapshot
| Client Type | Future Index Net | Option Index Net | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| DII | +34,935 | — | Mildly Long; supports dips |
| FII | −182,879 | −287,873 | Aggressive short bias |
| Pro | +23,813 | −234,661 | Range-bound; defensive option shorts |
Critical Nifty 50 Levels
Resistance Zones:
- 24,800 – 24,900: Heavy Call OI, rally cap.
- 25,050 – 25,100: Psychological + FII hedge line.
Support Zones:
- 24,450 – 24,500: First support (DII defense + Put base).
- 24,200 – 24,250: Stronger support; breach invites fresh selling.
- 23,950 – 24,000: Major swing support; below this, trend turns decisively bearish.
Probable Movement
- Base Case (High Probability): Bearish-to-rangebound within 24,500 – 24,900; sell on rise.
- Bullish Trigger (Low Probability): A breakout above 25,100 may trigger short-covering toward 25,300–25,400.
- Bearish Trigger (High Probability): A breakdown below 24,450 can open 24,200, then 24,000.
Professional Trade View
- Strategy: Sell-on-rise near 24,850–24,900.
- Stop-loss: Above 25,100.
- Targets: 24,500 → 24,250 → 24,000.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading in derivatives is risky; do your own due diligence.
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Anish Parashar
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