1. Wyckoff Framework Context
The Wyckoff method focuses on price–volume/OI relationships to identify whether big money (composite operators like FIIs, DIIs, Pros) is accumulating or distributing, and whether the market is in markup, markdown, or a trading range.
From day time frame chart:
Current Price: 24,619.35 (just under the Pivot 24,599 and slightly above short-term support).
Price is within a sideways congestion zone between ~24,460 (S2) and ~24,718 (R3).
Visible earlier Selling Climax (SC) and Automatic Rally (AR) suggest we are inside a range-bound Phase B of Wyckoff accumulation/distribution testing.
2. OI & Participant Position Analysis
FII
Future Index Net: -182,757 (heavily net short)
Option Index Net: -242,369 (net short bias — more put longs/call shorts)
This signals FIIs positioning for downside or at least a cap on upside.
DII
Future Index Net: +37,475 (mildly net long)
Primarily supportive buying, possibly absorbing FII selling at supports.
Pro
Future Index Net: +19,103 (mild long)
Option Index Net: -141,221 (likely writing calls for range trading).
3. Wyckoff Interpretation
Phase: We appear to be in Phase B late / early Phase C test zone.
FIIs are shorting into rallies (distribution bias).
DIIs are supporting price at lower range.
The green daily candle you see is likely a Secondary Test (ST) — testing supply after a bounce from the “Buy Zone” (24,460–24,562).
Upthrust Risk: If price spikes toward 24,718–24,821 and fails with high volume & OI rise in shorts, that’s a UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution).
4. Key Levels from Chart & OI
Type Level Wyckoff Note
Resistance 24,718–24,821 Possible UT zone
Resistance 24,751 R3 pivot, above here = stop triggers for shorts
Pivot 24,599 Intraday balance point
Support 24,562 Buy Zone upper edge
Support 24,460 Buy Zone mid
Support 24,330–24,303 SC zone, demand area
5. Probable Scenarios
Bearish Bias (Higher Probability given FII net shorts)
Price Action: Likely small gap-up or flat open → test 24,700+ zone → selling pressure from FIIs pushes back below 24,600.
Trigger: Break below 24,560 could invite momentum selling → target 24,460 → extended to 24,330.
Wyckoff View: UTAD / Phase C test → Phase D markdown.
Bullish Alternate (Lower Probability but possible short-cover)
Condition: Strong breach & sustain above 24,821 with short covering in FII futures.
Target: 24,950–25,050 (R5–psych level).
Wyckoff View: Springboard out of range into markup.
6. Tactical Bias
Intraday Traders: Sell near 24,700–24,820 with stop above 24,850.
Swing: Watch for 24,560 break for short entry → target 24,330.
Invalidation: Strong FII long build-up on index futures with price holding >24,821.
Summary:
Wyckoff method + OI shows FIIs still distributing into rallies. Unless 24,821 is taken out decisively, Nifty 50 is prone to retesting 24,460–24,330 in coming sessions.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.
.jpeg)