Based on the Nifty 50 chart and open interest data as of August 12, 2025, here’s an analysis of probable movement and critical levels:
Current Context: The Nifty 50 closed at 24,487.40, down 0.40% (-97.65 points), with a bearish candlestick pattern indicating short-term downward pressure. Key support levels (S1-S4) are at 24,466.00, 24,347.00, 24,199.94, and 24,110.00. Resistance levels (R1-R4) are at 24,588.95, 24,821.00, 25,040.00, and 25,058.00.
Open Interest Insights: FIIs show significant net short positions in futures (-185,258) and options (-339,308), suggesting bearish sentiment. DIIs hold a net long position (+38,542 in futures), countering some of the FII selling. Professional traders have a mixed outlook with a slight net long in futures (+19,428) but net short in options (-200,198). Cumulative open interest reflects a net short bias (-127,288 futures, -539,506 options).
Probable Movement: The net short positions by FIIs and the recent decline suggest a potential continuation of the downtrend toward the next support at 24,466.00, with further downside risk to 24,347.00 if breached. However, DII buying could limit the fall. A reversal upward may occur if the index breaks above 24,588.95, targeting 24,821.00.
Critical Levels: Watch 24,466.00 (immediate support) and 24,588.95 (immediate resistance). A drop below 24,466.00 could trigger a sharper decline, while a break above 24,588.95 might signal a bullish shift.
Market Overview
On 12th August 2025, Nifty 50 closed at 24,487 (+0.34%) while Nifty Bank settled at 55,043 (+0.29%). The day saw mixed derivatives positioning with FIIs continuing index futures shorts and heavy index put longs, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of key global macro events.
Participant-Wise Derivatives Position (in Contracts)
Client Type Future Index Net Option Index Net
DII +38,542 –
FII –185,258 –339,308
Pro +19,428 –200,198
Observation:
FIIs heavily net short in both futures & options.
DIIs holding net long index futures – providing domestic support.
Pros also net short in options, indicating limited expectation of sharp upside.
Cash Market Flows (₹ Cr)
FII: –2,245 Cr (net selling)
DII: +3,654 Cr (net buying)
Pro: –265 Cr (mild selling)
Inference: FII selling pressure offset by strong DII inflows.
Global Cues
Index Close Change
NASDAQ Composite 17,029 +0.27%
Dow Jones 44,189 +0.21%
S&P 500 5,675 +0.18%
Global equities maintained a positive tone, but US futures hinted at volatility due to upcoming inflation data.
Probable Nifty 50 Movement
Short-term bias: Mildly bearish to range-bound.
Reasoning: FII short build-up in index futures and puts suggests defensive positioning. However, strong DII buying limits downside risk.
Volatility Risk: Elevated due to upcoming US macro releases and expiry positioning.
Critical Levels for Nifty 50
Immediate Support: 24,420 / 24,350
Major Support: 24,250
Immediate Resistance: 24,550
Major Resistance: 24,650 – 24,700 zone
Strategy Pointers:
Long positions to be protected with stop-loss below 24,350.
Short entries may be considered near 24,650 with tight stops.
Expect choppy trade between 24,420 – 24,550 till a decisive breakout.
Open Interest Trend Insights
Put Writers Active: 24,400 & 24,500 strikes – indicating near-term support.
Call Writers Active: 24,600 & 24,700 strikes – capping upside.
PCR (Put/Call Ratio): 0.92 – signalling cautious sentiment
Conclusion
The Nifty 50 is likely to consolidate within the 24,350–24,650 band in the immediate term. Breakouts beyond this range will require either fresh
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.
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