Predicting the Nifty 50 closing price for September 5, 2025, based on available data and analysis involves combining insights from the provided web results, the Granger causality test results, and market trends. However, precise predictions are inherently uncertain due to market volatility and external factors. Below, I outline the approach and provide a reasoned estimate.
Methodology and Analysis
Recent Market Trends and Data:
Latest Closing Prices:
September 4, 2025: Nifty 50 closed at 24,734.30.
September 3, 2025: Closed at 24,715.05, up 135.45 points (+0.55%).
September 2, 2025: Closed at 24,579.60, down 45.45 points (-0.18%).
The index has been consolidating in a tight range (24,500–24,950) with resistance at 24,800–25,000 and support at 24,400–24,500. A breakout above 24,750–24,800 could signal a rally toward 25,000 or higher, while a drop below 24,500 may lead to further declines toward 24,350–24,300.
The market showed a bullish bias on September 4, with a gap-up opening expected near 24,950, driven by positive momentum and GST rate rationalization boosting consumption sectors like autos and FMCG.
Granger Causality Insight:
The Granger causality test conducted on the provided open interest data showed that daily future open interest variation (X: daily_index_cumulative_futures(DII+FII+PRO)_variation) Granger-causes changes in Nifty 50 closing prices (ΔY) at lags 1–6 (p-values < 0.05). This suggests that recent changes in futures open interest (OI) can help predict daily Nifty price movements.
On September 4, 2025, the daily future OI variation was +680 contracts, a shift from -1160 on September 3. This positive shift aligns with the bullish momentum observed on September 4 (Nifty up 0.08% to 24,734.30). A positive OI variation often indicates increased buying interest, which could support further upside if sustained.
External Factors:
GST Council Outcome: The GST Council’s two-slab rate structure, finalized recently, is expected to boost consumption and investment sentiment, particularly for autos and consumer goods, potentially supporting Nifty’s upward momentum.
FII/DII Activity: On September 4, FIIs were net sellers (₹106 crore), while DIIs were net buyers (₹2233 crore). Sustained DII buying has been a key support for the market, countering FII outflows.
Global Cues: Weak global cues (e.g., U.S. tariffs on Indian imports, bearish Asian markets) pressured the market on September 2, but positive global sentiment on September 3 contributed to gains. For September 5, global uncertainty remains a factor, but domestic optimism may dominate.
Technical Indicators:
The Nifty is trading near its 20-day EMA, with resistance at 24,800–25,000 and support at 24,600–24,500. RSI is neutral to slightly bearish (39.14 on August 29) but improving, suggesting potential for short-term upside if momentum persists.
A breakout above 24,950 could target 25,150–25,250, while a failure to hold 24,700 may lead to a pullback to 24,500.
Forecast from Sources:
Dollarrupee.in (August 29, 2025) predicted a Nifty closing value of 23,932 for September 5, 2025, with a range of 22,017 (minimum) to 25,847 (maximum). This forecast appears bearish compared to recent closings (24,734.30 on September 4), possibly reflecting earlier volatility or global headwinds.
TradingView (September 4, 2025) suggested a bullish outlook with a gap-up opening near 24,950, targeting 25,150–25,250 if the index sustains above 24,950–25,000.
Choice india (September 4, 2025) predicted a sideways to bullish trend with a range of 24,700–25,100, support at 24,600–24,700, and resistance at 25,000–25,100.
Prediction for Nifty 50 Closing on September 5, 2025
Based on the above:
The positive futures OI variation (+680 on September 4) and Granger causality results suggest that increased buying interest could push the Nifty higher, assuming no sharp reversal in OI trends.
The bullish momentum from September 4 (closing at 24,734.30, up 0.08%) and expectations of a gap-up opening near 24,950 indicate a potential test of the 24,950–25,000 resistance zone.
Support from DII buying (₹2233 crore) and GST-related optimism outweighs FII selling (₹106 crore), supporting a cautiously bullish outlook.
However, global uncertainties and resistance at 25,000 may cap gains unless a strong breakout occurs.
Estimated Closing Price: Considering the recent closing of 24,734.30, bullish momentum, and technical levels, the Nifty 50 is likely to close in the range of 24,800–24,950 on September 5, 2025. A precise point estimate, factoring in the bullish bias and resistance near 25,000, is approximately 24,850 (±100 points). This assumes sustained domestic buying and no major negative global shocks. If the index breaks above 24,950 decisively, it could reach 25,150; conversely, a failure to hold 24,700 may lead to a close near 24,600.
Caveats:
The dollarrupee.in forecast (23,932) seems overly bearish given recent data and may reflect outdated or conservative assumptions. I prioritize recent closings and technical levels from TradingView and Choice india.
Volatility from global cues or unexpected FII selling could alter this outlook.
The Granger causality result supports the predictive role of futures OI but doesn’t quantify the magnitude of impact, so the prediction relies heavily on technical and sentiment analysis.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.
