1. Derivatives Positioning Snapshot (as of 17-12-25)
Futures positioning (Index)
FII futures OI: –164,650 (shorts increasing)
DII futures OI: +45,256 (consistent long accumulation)
PRO futures OI: +11,994 (mild supportive longs)
Cumulative futures OI: –107,400 (net bearish structure intact)
Daily futures OI change: –3,858 → shorts being held, not meaningfully covered
👉 Inference:
This remains a FII-short vs DII-long standoff, with FIIs firmly controlling directional bia
Options positioning
FII option OI net: –332,283
PRO option OI net: –244,991
Cumulative option OI: –577,274
Daily option OI change: –42,463
👉 Inference:
Heavy net option selling, dominated by call writing
No evidence of panic short covering
Indicates range-capping + downside pressure
Cash market
FII cash: +₹1,171 Cr (buying)
DII cash: +₹768 Cr
👉 Important nuance:
Cash buying has not translated into futures covering, suggesting:
Arbitrage / stock-specific buying
Derivative desk still structurally bearish
2. Chart-Based Technical Read (Attached Image)
Trend & Averages
Price below VWAP
Trading below EMA 55 / 100
EMA structure flattening → early distribution phase
Momentum
MACD: Deep in negative territory, histogram expanding → downside momentum intact
RSI (14): ~46 → below neutral, no bullish divergence
Volume Profile
High supply zone: 25,950 – 26,050
Repeated rejection near VWAP confirms sell-on-rise behavior
3. Multi-Day Data Structure (Why downside bias persists)
From 08 Dec → 17 Dec:
FII futures shorts expanded from –138k → –165k
Cumulative option OI stayed deeply negative throughout
Every pullback rally saw call OI rebuilding, not unwinding
👉 This confirms a positional bearish structure, not a short-term reaction.
4. Market Sentiment for Tomorrow
Overall Bias
Bearish to Range-Bound with Negative Skew
Rallies are likely to be sold into, not chased.
5. Key Levels for Tomorrow (Derived from OI + Chart)
Resistance (Sell Zones)
25,900 – 25,950 → VWAP + call writer supply
26,000 – 26,050 → strong OI + volume resistance
❗ Any move above this zone without FII short covering is suspect
Support (Watch Carefully)
25,780 – 25,750 → intraday support
25,700 → critical breakdown level
Below 25,700, expect momentum acceleration
6. Probable Scenarios
Scenario 1 (High Probability – 60%)
Flat to mildly positive open
Rally towards 25,900–25,950
Fresh call writing + futures shorts reassert
Close near lows
Scenario 2 (Bearish Expansion – 25%)
Break below 25,750
Stops trigger → fast move to 25,650–25,600
Scenario 3 (Low Probability – 15%)
Sustained move above 26,050
Requires visible FII futures short covering
Until then, this is not the base case
7. Institutional Reading (Desk Conclusion)
FIIs: Directionally bearish, controlling index via derivatives
DIIs: Absorbing supply but not strong enough to reverse trend
PROs: Tactical longs only, not trend-changing
Options market: Acting as a ceiling, not a launchpad
Final View
Sell on rise remains the dominant strategy.
Until FII futures shorts reduce meaningfully, upside will stay capped and fragile.”
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
