Market sentiments
1️⃣ PRICE STRUCTURE (Daily Chart + OI Profile)
Spot Close: 26,250
Trend Context:
Price is above major medium-term supports (25,900–25,950)
Recent candles show loss of upside momentum near 26,300–26,350
OI Profile shows heavy volume concentration around 26,200–26,300 (HVN) → acceptance zone, not a breakout zone yet
Inference:
➡️ Market is in balance / distribution phase, not trending strongly.
2️⃣ FUTURES OI – PARTICIPANT BEHAVIOUR (KEY DRIVER)
🔹 Latest (05-01-26)
Participant
Net Futures OI
Interpretation
DII
+41,306
Structural long support
FII
-1,28,023
Aggressive positional shorts
PRO
-16,203
Short-term tactical shorts
Cumulative
-1,02,920
Net short bias intact
🔹 Trend Over Last 10 Sessions
FIIs consistently adding shorts, not covering
DIIs absorbing supply, preventing sharp fall
Result → Compressed range, failed upside follow-through
📌 This is classic “short dominance without breakdown” structure
3️⃣ OPTIONS OI – SUPPLY & DEMAND MAP
🔻 Option OI Snapshot (05-01-26)
Metric
Observation
FII Option OI
-2,13,258 (net short / hedge heavy)
PRO Option OI
-87,303
Cumulative Option OI
-3,00,561
Daily Option OI Change
-4,87,530 (aggressive writing / hedging)
🔹 What this means
Call-side supply dominant above 26,300
Put writers active only below 25,900
No aggressive put build-up at ATM → no directional bullish conviction
📌 Options market confirms RANGE + SELL-ON-RISE structure
4️⃣ CASH MARKET CONFIRMATION
Date
FII Cash (₹ Cr)
DII Cash (₹ Cr)
05-01-26
-36
+1,764
FIIs not supporting rally via cash
DIIs providing downside cushion only
➡️ Rally attempts lack fuel
5️⃣ MARKET SENTIMENT (COMPOSITE)
Component
Bias
Futures OI
Bearish
Options OI
Neutral-to-Bearish
Cash Market
Range-bound
Chart Structure
Consolidation
📌 Overall Sentiment
Neutral → Bearish (Range-Bound with downside risk)
6️⃣ PROBABLE NIFTY 50 PATH (NEXT 1–3 SESSIONS)
🔹 Base Case (High Probability – 60%)
Range Trade
Upper Bound: 26,300 – 26,350
Lower Bound: 25,950 – 26,000
➡️ Expect mean reversion within this band
🔹 Bearish Expansion (If triggers break – 25%)
Condition:
Spot sustains below 25,950
Futures OI rises with price fall
Targets:
25,820
25,700 (next OI demand pocket)
🔹 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability – 15%)
Only if:
26,350 breaks with
Futures short covering (OI ↓)
Call OI unwinding at 26,300–26,400
Then:
26,550 → 26,700 possible
(Current data does not support this yet)
7️⃣ KEY LEVELS – DERIVATIVE CONFIRMED
Level
Nature
26,350–26,400
Heavy Call Supply / Resistance
26,200–26,250
HVN / Balance Zone
26,000–25,950
First Support
25,700–25,820
Breakdown Zone
8️⃣ ACTIONABLE DERIVATIVE BIAS (Non-advisory)
Sell-on-rise preferred near 26,300–26,350
Avoid aggressive longs unless futures OI starts contracting
Intraday:
Above VWAP + Call OI reduction → scalp longs only
Below VWAP + Futures OI addition → short continuation setup
🧠FINAL VERDICT
Nifty is not bullish, not crashing — it is being CONTROLLED.
FIIs are short, DIIs are absorbing, options are compressing volatility
NIFTY 50 – OI + VWAP TRADING DESK GUIDE
CORE RULE VWAP is the control line.
Trade only when VWAP and OI agree.
FUTURES OI + PRICE INTERPRETATION
Price ↑ + OI ↑ = Long Build-up (Trend Up)
Price ↓ + OI ↑ = Short Build-up (Trend Down)
Price ↑ + OI ↓ = Short Covering (Relief Rally)
Price ↓ + OI ↓ = Long Unwinding (Slow Decline)
PRIMARY TRIGGERS
1. Bullish Continuation
Price above VWAP + Futures OI ↑ + Put OI ↑ + Call OI ↓
Action: Buy Futures / ATM Call, SL = VWAP
2. Short Covering Rally
Price above VWAP + Futures OI ↓ + Call OI ↓
Action: Scalp longs only till next call wall
3. Bearish Continuation
Price below VWAP + Futures OI ↑ + Call OI ↑
Action: Short Futures / Buy Put
4. Long Unwinding
Price below VWAP + Futures OI ↓ + Put OI ↓
Action: Avoid longs, prefer call selling
OPTION CONFIRMATION RULE
Below VWAP + Call OI ↑ = Strong Short
Above VWAP + Put OI ↑ = Valid Long
EXPIRY DAY RULES
First 30 min: No trade unless OI expands one-sided
Mid-session: Best for Iron Fly / Credit Spreads
Last 60 min: Exit sellers if VWAP breaks with OI spike
DESK MANTRA
VWAP gives direction. OI gives conviction. No conviction, no trade.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views;for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
DAILY CHART CONTEXT
• Medium-term consolidation after prior uptrend.
• Price rotating around HVN zone 26,200–26,300.
• Repeated rejection near 26,300+
confirms sell-on-rise supply. • No lower-lows structure – downside controlled, not trending.
KEY DAILY LEVELS Resistance: 26,300–26,400 Control Zone: 26,200–26,250 Support: 26,000–25,950 Breakdown Risk: Below 25,950
