✅ 1. MARKET STRUCTURE (CHART-BASED)
Price Action:
Nifty closed at 25,876, down 263 points (strong bearish candle).
Price has rejected the 26,200–26,300 resistance zone again.
The bearish candle has closed almost at EMA55 support.
Breakdown below EMA55 opens 25,650 → 25,450.
Indicators:
MACD histogram turned strongly red → momentum turning negative.
RSI = 44 → below midline, bearish but not oversold.
Chart Sentiment:
➡️ Shift from distribution to early downtrend.
➡️ Support: 25,810 → 25,650 → 25,450
➡️ Resistance: 26,050 → 26,200
✅ 2. DERIVATIVE SENTIMENT (DATA-DRIVEN)
(A) Futures OI: Institution-wise
08 Jan 2026
FII Futures OI Net: –167,347 (Bearish, +31k new shorts vs yesterday)
PRO Futures OI: +9512 (mild long hedges)
DII Futures OI: +37,569 (counter-trend long)
Cumulative Futures OI Net: –120,266 (deepening short build-up)
Daily variation: –10,441 (fresh shorts added)
📌 Interpretation:
➡️ FIIs are aggressively shorting stock index futures.
➡️ Net short now extremely elevated → FIIs clearly expecting more downside.
(B) Options OI Structure
08 Jan 2026
FII Option Net: –337,518
PRO Option Net: –290,887
Cumulative Option Net: –628,405
Daily Option cumulative variation: –304,759 (massive fresh short options)
📌 Interpretation:
➡️ FIIs + PROs heavily short both sides → expecting downside OR high volatility.
➡️ Very large net short suggests:
Call writing near 26,000–26,200
Put writing withdrawn → support shifting lower
This is typical of a trend-reversal phase from sideways to downward.
(C) Cash Market Flows
FII Cash: –3367 Cr (selling)
DII Cash: +3701 Cr (counter-flow buying)
📌 FIIs selling both cash + futures is a strong bearish alignment.
✅ 3. SHORT-TERM SENTIMENT SUMMARY
Parameter
Sentiment
FII Futures
Bearish (fresh shorts)
FII Options
Bearish (short Calls > short Puts)
PRO Options
Bearish
Cumulative OI Trend
Turning sharply bearish
Cash Market Flow
Bearish
Price Structure
Bearish candle, breakdown risk
Oscillators
Negative momentum
👉 Overall Market Sentiment = BEARISH TO STRONGLY BEARISH
✅ 4. PROBABLE NIFTY 50 MOVEMENT (Next 1–2 Sessions)
Most Probable Scenario – DOWNWARD BIAS
Given:
FII heavy short build-up
Large short in index options
RSI & MACD turning negative
Price breaking below EMAs
Nifty is likely to move towards:
🎯 25,810 → 25,650 (high probability)
If 25,650 breaks:
🎯 Next target: 25,450
🔥 5. Intraday Bias for Today
Sell on Rise towards 26,000–26,050
Short covering unlikely unless FIIs close shorts
Option writers defending 26,000 CE aggressively
Expected Range:
Upside cap: 26,050
Downside zone: 25,750 → 25,650
Break of 25,650 leads to accelerated fall.
✅ 6. Key Levels
Resistance:
26,050
26,200 (strong OI wall)
Support:
25,810 (intra-day)
25,650
25,450 (swing support)
📌 7. Final Conclusion
Nifty has shifted from distribution → breakdown attempt supported by:
Sharp FII futures short build-up
Very heavy FII + PRO option shorts
FII cash market selling
Bearish daily candle at EMA support
Momentum oscillators turning negative
▶️ Bias: Strong Bearish
▶️ Movement: 25,810 → 25,650 likely; 25,450 possible if panic extends.
▶️ Trade Plan: Sell on Rise; avoid longs until FII short unwinding appears.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views: for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
