Market sentiment assessment & Nifty 50 probable movement for today (08 Jan 2026) based on:
Multi-day FII/DII/PRO Futures OI
Multi-day FII/DII/PRO Options OI
Daily cumulative OI variation
Cash market flows
Chart structure ( 15-min chart)
📌 1. MARKET STRUCTURE — TODAY’S CONTEXT
Price (Nifty Spot)
Yesterday close: 26,140
Strong intraday fall → late recovery bounce
Price trading below 55, 100, 200 EMA on 15-min → trend still weak
MACD turning positive from oversold region → short-covering underway
RSI at ~54 from oversold → early strength but not confirmed trend reversal
Conclusion (Chart)
→ Oversold bounce + short covering
→ Trend is not yet bullish, but downside momentum is reducing.
📌 2. DERIVATIVES – OI DIAGNOSTICS (Key Focus: 07 Jan)
A. Futures OI (Net Positions)
07 Jan 2026
DII Futures OI: +41,722 (Increasing longs)
FII Futures OI: –136,272 (Aggressive short buildup)
PRO Futures OI: –15,275 (Shorts)
Cumulative Futures OI: –109,825 → Heavy net shorts remain
Daily Change (Fut Variation): –3,638 → Fresh addition of shorts again
Interpretation
FIIs have NOT covered shorts → no directional reversal
DIIs supporting the market with longs but not enough
PROs remain short → intraday selling expected at resistances
➡ Underlying structure remains bearish.
B. Options OI (Net)
07 Jan 2026:
FII Options OI: –203,889 (Net short bias)
PRO Options OI: –119,757 (Both writing premium)
Cumulative Options OI: –323,646
Daily Option Variation: –125,121 (Heavy OPTION SHORTING)
This is VERY IMPORTANT:
→ When cumulative option OI = negative, it means net call writing OR put buying dominates.
→ Combined with price bounce → SHORT COVERING, NOT TREND REVERSAL.
C. Cash Market Flows (07 Jan)
FII Cash: –1,527 Cr (Selling continues)
DII Cash: +2,889 Cr (DIIs absorbing panic)
➡ DIIs protecting downside, but FIIs remain sellers.
📌 3. SENTIMENT SUMMARY
Participant
Futures
Options
Cash
Sentiment
FII
Heavy Shorts added
Net Option Shorts
Selling
Bearish
DII
Long buildup
Neutral
Buying
Supportive / Neutral
PRO
Shorts
Premium Selling
—
Mild Bearish
**Overall Market Sentiment:
➡ Bearish-to-Neutral with a short-covering bounce
➡ Trend reversal NOT visible
➡ Upside will face strong supply from FII short books**
📌 4. NIFTY 50 — PROBABLE MOVEMENT TODAY (08 Jan 2026)
Base Scenario (Most Probable)
📍 Short covering towards 26,250–26,300
📍 Strong supply at 26,320–26,360 due to call writers
📍 Intraday pullbacks likely near EMAs
➡ Expected Movement:
Positive opening → move to 26,250–26,290 → selling at higher levels → sideways-to-down afternoon
Bullish Scenario (Less Probable)
If Nifty sustains above 26,320 (key call wall) for >15 minutes:
Short-covering can push to 26,380 – 26,430
FIIs must stop adding shorts (not visible yet)
Probability: 35%
Bearish Scenario (Risk Case)
If Nifty breaks 26,080
Slide to 25,980 → 25,920 likely
Heavy FII shorts can accelerate fall
Probability: 45%
📌 5. KEY LEVELS FOR TODAY
Support Levels
26,080 – major support
25,980 – next support
25,920 – panic support
Resistance Levels
26,250 – first resistance (current bounce level)
26,300 – intraday resistance
26,320 – major resistance (FII supply zone)
26,360 – trend-defining resistance
📌 6. FINAL INSTITUTIONAL STYLE OUTLOOK
Nifty 50 is expected to remain in a short-covering upward bias early in the day, but the broader trend remains weak due to persistent FII short positions across futures and negative option OI. DIIs are supporting the market, limiting downside, but FIIs continue to dominate directional flow.
Movement Expectation:
➡ Upside capped at 26,300–26,320
➡ Downside supported at 26,080
➡ Likely sideways with upward bias early → selling-filled afternoon
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content reflects author's views;for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
