1️⃣ Derivatives Positioning – What Big Players Are Doing
Futures OI
FII: Persistently net short and increasing shorts
→ –216k contracts (22 Jan), trend unchanged for weeks
DII: Steady net long accumulation (47k → rising)
PRO: Net long but not aggressive
📌 Inference
This is a controlled bearish market, not panic selling. FIIs are pressing shorts while DIIs are cushioning downside.
Options OI
Cumulative Option OI: –565k (very high negative)
Daily option variation (22 Jan): –59k
Indicates fresh Put writing exit / Call writing dominance
No meaningful short-covering yet from FIIs.
📌 Inference
Options data confirms trend continuation, not reversal.
Any bounce so far is technical, not structural.
2️⃣ Cash Market Confirmation
FII cash: –₹2,549 cr
DII cash: +₹4,222 cr
📌 DIIs are absorbing supply, preventing free fall, but trend control remains with FIIs.
3️⃣ Chart Reading – Daily Time Frame
Trend & Structure
Price below key moving averages
Ichimoku cloud acting as dynamic resistance
Series of lower highs & lower lows
SuperTrend & momentum indicators → bearish continuation
Momentum Indicators
RSI ~34 → weak, not yet bullish divergence
MACD deeply negative, histogram expanding
Stochastic attempting curl up → minor bounce possible, not trend reversal
📌 This is a “bear-flag + pause” structure, not a bottoming pattern.
4️⃣ Key Levels (High Confidence)
Immediate Supports
25,160 – 25,120 → first demand zone
25,000 – 24,980 → psychological + OI zone
24,850 – 24,800 → breakdown target if panic resumes
Immediate Resistances
25,420 – 25,450 → intraday supply
25,600 – 25,650 → strong Ichimoku + OI resistance
25,800 → trend reversal only above this on closing basis
5️⃣ Probable Market Path (Next 1–3 Sessions)
Base Case (High Probability – ~65%)
Minor technical bounce toward 25,420–25,500
Followed by renewed selling pressure
Range shifts lower: 25,000–25,500
Bearish Extension (If 25,120 breaks)
Fast move toward 25,000 → 24,850
FIIs likely to press shorts aggressively
Bullish Reversal (Low Probability – <15%)
Requires:
FII futures short covering
Option OI contraction
Daily close above 25,650
None of these conditions are present yet
6️⃣ Market Sentiment Summary
Overall Sentiment:
🔴 Bearish with controlled downside
Nature of Market:
➡️ Not panic
➡️ Not bottoming
➡️ Sell-on-rise environment
Important Note:
Daily futures variation is positive, but this is not short covering — it’s position roll-over and intraday churn.
7️⃣ Trading Bias (Positional / Swing)
Bias: Sell rallies, avoid aggressive longs
Long trades: Only intraday scalps near 25,100 with tight SL
Trend longs: Only after 25,650+ close with FII support
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
