Nifty 50 movement prediction on 1.7.25

 

📉 Current Status:

Last Close: 25,517.05

Daily Change: -120.75 points (-0.47%)

Candle: Bearish engulfing after strong up-move – sign of short-term weakness or profit booking.

📊 Key Levels:

🔺 Upside (Resistance/Breakout Levels):

R1: 25,615 – Immediate resistance

R2: 25,789 – Breakout confirmation

R3: 25,909

R4: 25,985 – Breakout Target

🔻 Downside (Support/Breakdown Levels):

S1: 25,517 – Current price (acting weak)

S2: 25,415 – Next major support (also aligns with previous resistance now flipped)

S3: 25,305 – Breakdown Target

S4: 25,201 – Major support near 38.2% Fibonacci

Buy Zone: 25,408 – 25,215

SL for Longs: 24,810

SL for Shorts: 25,600

🔄 Fibonacci Levels:

0.236: 25,391

0.382: 25,217 (important)

0.5: 25,045

0.618: 24,834

📌 Zones Highlighted on Chart:

Decision Zone: 25,552–25,600

(Current candle closed below = bearish bias)

Sell Trigger: Below 25,517 = test of lower supports

Breakdown Target: 25,305 and then 25,201

🔮 Nifty 50 Movement Outlook (Next 1–3 sessions):

✅ Bullish if:

Holds above 25,600 and breaks 25,789

⇒ Target: 25,985+

❌ Bearish if:

Falls below 25,517, especially if breaks 25,415

⇒ Target: 25,305 – 25,201

⇒ SL for fresh shorts: Above 25,600

🔧 Technical Indicators (visible on chart):

RSI near 64: Still strong but overbought territory

MACD: Looks like crossover already happened – momentum bullish, but waning

Bollinger Bands: Price hit upper band and retraced – classic mean reversion setup

📘 Strategy Suggestion:

🔸For Traders:

Short near 25,517–25,552 with SL at 25,600, target: 25,305 / 25,201

Longs only above 25,600–25,615, confirmation above 25,789

🔸For Investors:

Wait near Buy Zone: 25,215–25,408

Accumulate in dips near 25,200–25,000 if broader trend remains strong.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views;for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor 

FII Shorts Rise, Pros Sell Volatility – Will Nifty Defend Its Range?

Heavy Derivative Repositioning: Market Braces for Consolidation or Surprise Swing?

📊 Market Insight: 

Derivative Data Suggests Volatile Equilibrium for Nifty 50 – July 1st Preview

🧾 Participant-Wise OI Summary as on 30th June 2025:

Client Type Future Index Long Future Index Short Option Index Call Short Option Index Put Short Total Long Total Short

DII 78,304 48,099 0 0 2,20,661 40,96,172

FII 51,034 89,157 3,78,882 3,73,472 45,77,967 31,44,074

Pro 39,419 41,091 8,90,422 6,89,478 38,01,281 29,30,585

🔍 Narrative Analysis

📍 "FIIs Load Up Shorts, But Also Write Puts

 – Defensive Bullishness or Hedged Bearishness?"

-FIIs continue to hold more Index Shorts (89K) vs Longs (51K), suggesting caution on directional upside. However, their Put Shorts (3.73L) almost match Call Shorts (3.78L), indicating they’re writing volatility near lower support zones — a potential bullish stance masked in hedged bets.

📍 "Pros Continue to Short Volatility Aggressively"

Proprietary traders maintain massive Call & Put shorts (8.9L & 6.89L respectively) — classic range-trading strategy. They are not expecting directional breakout, but capitalizing on time decay and volatility premium, usually near expiry or in low VIX periods.

📍 "DIIs Sit Tight: Passive Participants for Now"

DIIs have high stock future long positions but negligible index option activity. Their approach remains stock-specific and not index-driven, suggesting no aggressive stance on Nifty.

📈 Nifty 50: Probable Market Movement on 1st July 2025

✅ View: Range-Bound to Mildly Bullish Bias

Rationale:

Despite higher FII index shorts, Put Writing activity dominates, which may offer support near 23,400–23,500.

Pro shorts across both Calls and Puts hint at lack of momentum on either side.

DII passivity confirms no strong institutional buying, so any rally will need external triggers.

📌 Key Technical Levels:

Level Type Strike Zone Interpretation

Support Zone 23,400 – 23,500 High Put Writing + FII Put Shorts

Resistance Zone 23,750 – 23,800 Likely Pro Call Writing + Short Buildup

Breakout Trigger > 23,800 Short covering rally possible if breached

Breakdown Trigger < 23,400 Could activate stop-losses from Put Writers

🗣️ Conclusion:

The market seems poised to start July in a consolidation mode, with neither bulls nor bears in decisive control. While FII Futures indicate nervousness, the significant short positions in Puts and balanced Call writing tell us that volatility is being sold, not chased."

Unless global cues (US market trends, macro data, bond yields) swing hard, Nifty is likely to oscillate in a narrow 150-point band, possibly between 23,400–23,750.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Market Pulse: FII Bulls Charge Ahead — Will Nifty 50 Follow?

 📈 Market Pulse: FII Bulls Charge Ahead — Will Nifty 50 Follow?

Date: June 27, 2025

Category: Market Insights | Derivatives Analysis | Nifty 50 Outlook

🔍 Participant-Wise Derivatives Data: A Deeper Look

As we analyze the open interest (OI) data across equity derivatives for June 27, 2025, some clear patterns are emerging. Here's how FIIs, DIIs, and Proprietary Traders (Pros) are positioning their portfolios — and what that means for the Nifty 50.

📊 Participant-Wise Positioning

🧑‍💼 Client Type ✅ Total Long Contracts 🚫 Total Short Contracts 🔁 Net Position

DII 2,18,134 40,67,339 -18,49,205 (Strong Bearish)

FII 45,48,571 29,92,874 +15,55,697 (Strong Bullish)

Pro 33,49,507 25,21,942 +8,27,565 (Moderate Bullish)

🔎 Segment-Wise Insights

🔶 Foreign Institutional Investors (FII)

Highly long on Stock Futures (35+ lakh contracts).

Active in Put Writing (3.53L contracts) – a bullish sign.

Moderate Call Writing shows no major upside cap.

Net takeaway: FIIs are riding the bullish wave, likely betting on a range breakout or sustained uptrend.

🔻 Domestic Institutional Investors (DII)

Heavy short positions in stock futures and index puts.

Minimal exposure in call options, indicating risk aversion.

DIIs seem to be hedging or preparing for downside.

🧠 Proprietary Traders (Pro)

Engaged in both calls and puts — a sign of volatility trading.

High OI in Put Shorts (7.55L) and Call Shorts (5.46L) indicates a range-bound expectation with bullish inclination.

Favoring net longs in index and stock futures.

📈 Nifty 50 Movement Outlook

🔮 Bias: Bullish with Range-Bound Characteristics

FII leadership in long build-up strengthens bullish sentiment.

Pro players hedging with straddles and strangles reflect expectations of a breakout.

DII shorts might be temporary or protective ahead of events (inflation print, policy meet, etc.).

🔦 Levels to Watch on Nifty 50

Zone Level (Approx.) Implication

Support 23,350 – 23,400 Strong demand zone

Resistance 23,750 – 23,850 Supply pressure likely

Breakout Zone Above 23,850 Fresh long entry potential

📝 Conclusion: 

FII Bulls in Control — But Watch for DII Speed Breakers

The market seems to be gearing up for a directional move, with FIIs holding the throttle. A breakout above resistance zones could trigger a short-covering rally, especially if DII shorts unwind. However, upcoming macro triggers will need to be monitored closely.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Market Pulse: NIFTY 50 Holds Firm Amid Global Strength & Derivative Positioning

 Market Pulse: NIFTY 50 Holds Firm Amid Global Strength & Derivative Positioning

Date: June 27, 2025

On June 27, 2025, the NIFTY 50 closed at 25,637.8, gaining 88 points from the previous day, signaling a resilient upward momentum despite continued net short positioning in index options. The NIFTY Bank also surged to 57,443.9, showing strong banking participation.

Meanwhile, US markets, led by the NASDAQ Composite (6,141.02) and S&P 500 (6,045.26), continued their rally, reinforcing positive global risk sentiment.

🔍 2. Derivative Market Analysis

a. Index Futures (Net Positioning)

FIIs reduced long positions from 30,435 contracts (25-Jun) to 28,909 (27-Jun), indicating mild unwinding.

Despite this, the net drop of only ~1,500 contracts doesn't suggest panic; it's more profit-booking after the rally from 24,718 (13-Jun) to 25,637 (27-Jun).

b. Index Options (Net Positioning)

FIIs remain heavily short on puts (Put Shorts: 2,23,576) and also long on calls (Call Longs: 2,601), suggesting they are positioned for limited upside or consolidation, not a major decline.

The Put Call Ratio (PCR) by OI indicates neutral to mildly bullish bias.

c. Daily OI Changes

Index Futures Variation: -11,740 contracts ➔ indicates short unwinding or reduction of long positions.

Index Options Variation: -16,349 contracts ➔ reflects cooling off in aggressive hedging.

d. Proprietary Traders (PRO)

PRO traders show a net long stance in both Futures and Options.

Notably, cumulative PRO OI in Index Options rose sharply from 1.25L to 2.23L within a week, hinting at volatility play or directional bets on upside.

💰 3. Institutional Flow (Cash Market)

FII net cash buy: ₹1,397 Cr on 27-Jun vs ₹195 Cr on 26-Jun ➔ clear comeback of foreign liquidity.

DII: Net sellers of ₹588 Cr on 27-Jun ➔ rotating money into broader market or booking profits.

Conclusion: Strong FII inflow on 27-Jun supported the bullish tone despite lack of aggressive futures buildup.

🌍 4. Global Market Context

US & EU indices surged:

NASDAQ: up from 6,092 (25-Jun) to 6,141 (26-Jun)

Dow Jones: up from 42,982 to 43,386

S&P 500: recovered to 6,045

 Bond Yields fell slightly, improving equity attractiveness. AI-driven tech optimism continues to support US markets, lifting sentiment globally.

📈 5. Technical Snapshot

Date NIFTY Close Bank NIFTY Close NASDAQ DOW S&P 500

25-Jun 25,549 56,621 6,092 42,982 6,092

26-Jun 25,637.8 57,443.9 6,141 43,386 6,045

NIFTY has held above the 25,500 zone convincingly.

Bank NIFTY breaking past 57,000 signals strong domestic banking momentum.

🤮 6. Forward Outlook

Key Support for NIFTY 50: 25,400 / 25,200

Immediate Resistance: 25,800 / 26,050

Trigger Watch:

US PCE inflation data

Crude Oil volatility

RBI commentary on inflation/rupee

Derivative rollover trends (monthly expiry on 27-Jun)

🧠 Sentiment Summary

Indicator Reading (27-Jun) Signal

FII Cash Buying ₹1,397 Cr ✅ Bullish

Index Futures Net OI 28,909 (↓1,526) ⚠️ Mild Cooling

Options Put Shorts (FII) 2,23,576 ✅ Bullish Bias

Global Markets All major indices up ✅ Positive Setup

PCR (Estimated) >1.1 ✅ Optimistic

📝 Conclusion

Despite derivative unwinding and DII profit booking, the market holds firm thanks to renewed FII cash inflow, strong US momentum, and resilient banking sector performance. If 25,800 is crossed, expect momentum towards 26,000+ in NIFTY. But caution is advised near monthly expiry adjustments.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty 50 Today

 nifty 50 Closing Price Trend:

The Nifty 50 index closed at 25,549 on June 26, 2025, up from 24,888.2 on June 12, 2025, reflecting a bullish trend with a gain of approximately 2.65% over two weeks.

The index has shown resilience, recovering from a low of 24,620 (June 4) to a recent high near 25,549, approaching a nine-month high.Posts on X suggest bullish momentum, with targets as high as 26,000 if the index sustains above 25,200–25,250, but also caution about potential pullbacks to 24,600–24,400 or lower if it fails to hold key supports.

Futures Index Net Open Interest:

FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors): Consistently net short in futures, with a cumulative net OI of -19,049 on June 26, 2025, though the short position reduced from -71,798 on June 24. This suggests some short covering or reduced bearish bets by FIIs.

DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net long with 28,227 contracts on June 26, down from 53,065 on June 13, indicating reduced bullish conviction or profit booking.

Proprietary Traders (Pro): Net short at -12,309 on June 26, aligning with FIIs but with less intensity.

Daily Index Futures Variation: FIIs added 36,880 contracts (long positions) on June 26, while DIIs unwound -78,925 contracts, signaling a shift in sentiment. This could indicate FIIs covering shorts or initiating longs, while DIIs are taking profits.

Options Index Net Open Interest:

FIIs: 

Net short at -3,501 on June 26, a significant reduction from -71,622 on June 3, suggesting short covering in options or less aggressive bearish positioning.

Proprietary Traders: Strongly net long at 112,029, with a cumulative OI of 108,528, indicating bullish bets in the options market, likely through call buying or put selling.

Daily Index Options Variation: 

FIIs added 36,880 contracts, while DIIs unwound -78,925, consistent with futures activity, showing FIIs turning less bearish and DIIs reducing exposure.High OI in options (cumulative 108,528) suggests significant activity around key strike prices, which can act as support or resistance.Nifty Bank Index:Closed at 57,206.7 on June 26, up from 55,527.35 on June 13, a 3% rise, outperforming Nifty 50 slightly.Banking sector weakness was noted earlier in June, but the recent rally suggests renewed buying interest.

Global Indices:

NASDAQ Composite: Rose from 19,447.41 (June 20) to 19,973.55 (June 25), a 2.7% gain, indicating tech-driven bullishness.

Dow Jones: Increased from 42,206.82 (June 20) to 42,982.43 (June 25), up 1.8%.S&P 500: Marginally up from 5,967.84 (June 20) to 6,092.16 (June 25), a 2.1% gain.Positive global cues, particularly from tech-heavy NASDAQ, may support Indian indices, though correlations can weaken during local expiry events.

Market Sentiment from X Posts:

Bullish views dominate, with analysts targeting 25,500–26,000 if Nifty holds above 25,200–25,250.Resistance is noted at 25,116–25,330, with support at 24,970–25,100. A break below 24,460 could trigger a sharper correction to 24,400–23,350.

Options activity suggests 26,000 PE (put) decay, indicating reduced downside protection and potential for further upside.

Technical Analysis and Critical LevelsBased on recent web sources and X posts, the Nifty 50 is in a bullish phase but nearing key resistance levels. 

Here are the critical levels and probable movements:

Key Resistance Levels:25,500: A psychological and technical barrier. A sustained close above this could target 25,750–26,000 (Elliott Wave 3rd wave projection).25,138–25,330: Immediate resistance zones. A break above 25,330 with strong volume could confirm bullish continuation toward 26,000+.26,277.35: All-time high (September 27, 2024). A new high could open targets of 26,500–26,700 by mid-July.

Key Support Levels:25,100–24,970: Neutral zone with high options OI. Sideways consolidation is likely here if momentum stalls.24,800–24,900: Strong support, as Nifty reclaimed this level after dipping below on June 18. 24,460–24,600: Critical support. A 30-minute close below 24,460 could trigger a correction toward 24,400–23,900.23,900: Major support. A breakdown below this could lead to 23,500–23,350, though this is less likely given current bullish momentum.  

Open Interest Insights:

High OI in calls at 25,500 and 26,000 strikes suggests resistance, as these are levels where call writers are active.High OI in puts at 25,000 and 24,500 indicates strong support, as put writers are defending these levels.The shift in FIIs from net short to adding long positions and proprietary traders’ bullish options OI (108,528) suggest a bullish bias. A PCR below 1 typically indicates call-heavy activity, supporting upside potential.

Volatility and Expiry:

June 26 was a monthly expiry day, which saw Nifty rally past 25,500 with a 1,000-point Sensex surge, indicating strong bullish momentum.High options OI and expiry-related volatility could lead to choppiness around 25,100–25,500 in the near term.

Probable Movement

Bullish Scenario (More Likely):

Trigger: Sustained close above 25,200–25,250 with strong volume and continued FII short covering.Target: 25,750 (short-term) and 26,000–26,500 (mid-term, by mid-July).

Rationale:FIIs reducing short positions in futures (-19,049 from -71,798) and options (-3,501 from -71,622) suggest short covering or neutral positioning.Proprietary traders’ heavy long OI in options (112,029) indicates bullish bets, likely through call buying or put selling.Positive global cues from NASDAQ and S&P 500, combined with banking sector strength (Nifty Bank up 3%), support further upside.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests a sharp 3rd wave rally above 25,060, targeting 25,500+.Strategy: Buy on dips near 25,000–24,970 with a stop-loss below 24,800. Target 25,750–26,000.

Bearish Scenario (Less Likely):

Trigger: Failure to sustain above 25,100 or a 30-minute close below 24,970, followed by a break below 24,460.Target: 24,600–24,400, with potential for 23,900–23,350 if global markets turn negative.Rationale:DIIs unwinding -78,925 contracts in futures suggests profit booking, which could cap upside if FIIs resume shorting.High call OI at 25,500 and 26,000 may act as resistance, triggering selling if momentum fades.

Global risks (e.g., geopolitical tensions or banking crises) could spark a correction, as cautioned in X posts.

Strategy: Short below 24,970 with a stop-loss above 25,100. Target 24,600–24,400.Neutral Scenario:Range: 24,970–25,330. High OI in calls and puts around these levels suggests consolidation if neither bulls nor bears gain control.Rationale: Expiry-related volatility and mixed FII/DII activity could lead to sideways movement.

Strategy: Sell straddles/strangles at 25,000–25,500 strikes for range-bound trading, with strict risk management.

Critical Levels to Watch

Upside Breakout: 25,500 (immediate), 25,750 (next hurdle), 26,000–26,277.35 (all-time high).

Downside Risk: 24,970–25,100 (neutral zone), 24,800–24,460 (strong support), 23,900 (major support).

Volatility Indicators: Monitor India VIX (not provided but referenced as a volatility gauge). A spike above 15 could signal increased risk of a pullback.

Additional Notes 

Global Influence:

 The bullish trend in NASDAQ and S&P 500 supports risk-on sentiment, but any sharp reversal (e.g., due to U.S. economic data or geopolitical events) could pressure Indian markets.Banking Sector: Nifty Bank’s outperformance (57,206.7) suggests strength in financials, a key driver for Nifty 50. Watch Bank Nifty support at 56,000 and resistance at 57,500.

Options Strategy: Given high OI in 25,500 CE and 25,000 PE, a bull call spread (buy 25,500 CE, sell 26,000 CE) or a bear put spread (buy 25,000 PE, sell 24,500 PE) could be effective for directional trades.

Conclusion

The Nifty 50 is likely to remain bullish in the near term, with a potential to test 25,750–26,000 if it sustains above 25,200–25,250, supported by FII short covering, proprietary traders’ bullish options OI, and positive global cues. However, traders should remain cautious of resistance at 25,500 and potential pullbacks to 24,970–24,460 if momentum weakens. 

Monitor FII/DII activity and global indices for confirmation of the trend. For intraday and positional trades, use the identified support and resistance levels with strict stop-losses to manage expiry-related volatility.

Disclaimer: Trading involves high risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Market Pulse: Derivatives Heatmap Signals Ahead of Expiry – FIIs Defensive, PROs Aggressive

 🔥 Market Pulse: Derivatives Heatmap Signals Ahead of Expiry – FIIs Defensive, PROs Aggressive

📅 Data Comparison: June 24 vs June 25, 2025

Focus: Participant-Wise Positioning in Equity Derivatives (Nifty 50 Outlook)

📈 Heatmap Insights – What Changed in 24 Hours?

The visual heatmap below highlights the shift in derivative positions between June 24 and June 25, 2025. Let’s decode what’s happening behind the numbers:

🔍 Participant-Wise Key Takeaways:

🟠 Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Hedging for Downside

Put Longs increased by +125,912 contracts → Stronger downside hedge

Put Shorts rose by +77,278 contracts → Possible volatility capture or base support

Call Shorts reduced by –21,492 → Less pressure on the upside

Index Futures Shorts dropped slightly → Still net bearish, but moderating

✅ Interpretation: 

FIIs are getting more cautious, but simultaneously writing puts suggests they may see limited downside from here.

🟢 Proprietary Traders (PROs): Expiry Game in Play

Index Futures Longs increased significantly by +16,180 contracts

Put Shorts rose by +271,905 contracts

Call Shorts up by +12,715 contracts

✅ Interpretation: 

PROs are playing expiry tightly, betting on a rangebound market with limited movement around Nifty’s current zone.

🔵 Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Subtle Shift

Index Futures Longs dropped by –1,574 contracts

Futures Shorts up by +2,500 contracts

Stable Option positioning – no major directional bets

✅ Interpretation: 

DIIs are still mildly bullish, but cautious ahead of expiry, preferring to hedge positions via stock futures.

🧭 Nifty 50 Outlook – June 26, 2025

Key Level Value (Spot Basis)

Support 24,950 – 25,050

Resistance 25,300 – 25,400

Likely Expiry Range 25,000 – 25,300

With FIIs hedging and PROs capping both sides via options, the index may remain pinned in a narrow expiry band unless a global catalyst disrupts the flow.

📝 Conclusion

📌 The heatmap reveals a market on guard but not panicked.

💡 Smart money is hedging, not fleeing.

📈 A bounce or short-covering rally isn’t ruled out — but upside is capped near 25,350–400.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Why markets are rallying

 📈 Why markets are rallying

1. Ceasefire optimism between Israel and Iran

A truce agreement announced today between Iran and Israel has lifted risk appetite globally, diminishing fears of a broader Middle East conflict. European shares surged—the Stoxx 600 rallied ~1.3%, marking its largest one-day gain in over a month  .

In the U.S., the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq each gained around 1–1.5%, fueled by hopes that peace will ease geopolitical uncertainty  .

2. Sharp drop in oil prices

Oil prices have declined more than 6% today after Iran’s missile activity didn't trigger disruption to shipping lanes or infrastructure  .

Lower energy costs help profitability for companies and reduce inflation concerns, easing pressure on central banks and boosting equities.

3. Improved risk sentiment & dovish Fed tone

U.S. futures markets hovered higher as traders braced for Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming testimony, anticipating that rate cuts might be on the table later this year  .

In Europe, dovish signals and cheaper valuations have supported gains—particularly in banks and industrials  .

🔍

Also there’s been a notable shift in U.S. and European bond yields today—and it has definitely helped drive the equity rally.

🇺🇸 U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Yield

As of June 23, the benchmark 10‑year yield edged down to about 4.35%, slipping ~0.03 percentage points from the previous day  .

After today's reach for safe-haven assets softened (fueled by optimism over the Iran‑Israel truce), yields remained steady—trading roughly flat in the mid‑4% range  .

Implication: Lower or stable yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the present value of future earnings, thereby supporting higher equity valuations.

🇩🇪 German 10‑Year Bund Yield

Germany's 10‑year Bund yield ticked up slightly to 2.53% on June 23, up about 0.01 ppts from its prior session, though still modestly lower over the past month  .

With global risk sentiment improving, European rates have been largely range-bound—offering support to regional stock markets.

Implication: A flat or mildly rising Bund yield amid easing geopolitical risk encourages capital inflow to stocks, especially when central banks signal upcoming rate cuts.

📊 How Yield Movements Fueled Today’s Equity Surge

Decline in U.S. yields (~4.35% on the 10‑yr) helped US equities by easing discount rates and reducing safe-haven competition  .

Relative stability in European yields — Bund yield remained low and slightly down versus recent highs—complements the equity rebound across Europe.

Together with the drop in oil prices and ceasefire optimism, complacent bond markets helped drive investors into riskier assets like stocks.

🧩 Summary Table

Market Today's Yield Move Equity Impact

U.S. -0.03 ppts to ~4.35% Boosts valuations, cuts risk premium

Germany +0.01 ppts to ~2.53% Maintains appeal of equities vs. bonds

Bottom line:

Yield dynamics—steady to slightly lower in the U.S., stable in Europe—have complemented other bullish catalysts (the ceasefire and falling oil), helping to support today’s >1% rally in both U.S. and European markets.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Participant-Wise Open Interest Analysis – Nifty 50 Outlook

 Participant-Wise Open Interest Analysis – Nifty 50 Outlook

Date: June 24, 2025

Focus: Equity Derivatives positioning — Nifty 50 trend signals

🔍 1. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) – Turning Cautious

Type Long Short Net

Index Futures 46,141 155,612 –109,471

Put Options Long 684,667 ↗️ increased from 704k → caution/hedge

Call Options Long 657,824 ↗️ slightly up — still below puts

Put Shorts 552,240 ↗️ higher — suggests expectation of downside cushioning

Call Shorts 579,392 ↑ more aggressive — bearish range bet

🔸 Inference:

FIIs increased index futures shorts, maintaining strong bearish bias.

Higher call short OI and put longs point to defensive positioning, expecting downside or at best, rangebound movement.

🧰 2. Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) – Steady Bullish Base

Type Long Short Net

Index Futures 77,256 42,747 +34,509

🔸 Inference:

DIIs remain net long, showing supportive stance towards the index.

However, their huge stock future shorts (~4.2M) likely represent sectoral hedging or profit-booking, not direct index negativity.

🧠 3. Proprietary Traders (PRO) – Volatility and Range Play

Type Long Short Net

Index Futures 39,683 36,519 +3,164 → neutral to mildly positive

Index Option Writers:

Call Shorts: 1,084,623

Put Shorts: 954,660

Indicates selling volatility, expecting consolidation

🔸 Inference:

Pros are writing calls & puts aggressively, which suggests:

Expectation of range bound expiry

Resistance near current levels (due to high call writing)

📌 4. Summary Table – Total Market Positioning

Participant Total Longs Total Shorts Net Position

DII 369,586 4,584,513 –4,214,927

FII 5,765,667 4,646,548 +1,119,119 (driven by stock longs, not index)

PRO 5,318,149 4,605,735 +712,414

🧮 Market-Wide Total:

Longs: 11,453,402

Shorts: 13,836,796

Net Short Bias: –2.38 million contracts

📈 Nifty 50 Technical Outlook: June 25–26, 2025

Bias: 🔻 Mildly Bearish to Consolidation Mode

🧾 Reasons:

FIIs continue heavy Index Futures Shorts → strong directional indicator

PROs and FIIs writing Calls → suggests capped upside near 25,300–25,400

Put Longs > Put Shorts among FIIs → still defensive

DIIs remain long, cushioning deep correction

🧭 Nifty 50 Levels to Watch

Level Type Value Range

Resistance 25,300 – 25,400 (Call writing zone)

Support 24,950 – 25,050 (Put accumulation + DII support)

Range Expectation 24,950 – 25,350 (unless heavy trigger emerges)

✅ Conclusion

The market is currently in a defensive zone with downside risk due to:

FIIs increasing short bets

PROs playing range with upside capped

DIIs acting as short-term stabilizers

📉 Short-term bias: Bearish-to-Rangebound

📈 Trigger for reversal: Short covering or positive macro triggers

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Wyckoff analysis Nifty 50 movement

 

Wyckoff Analysis – Nifty 50 (20th June Data)

(Key Adjustments: FIIs are net short in both futures and options, aligning with their hedging/speculative stance.)Institutional Activity (Critical Correction)

FIIs: 

Futures show a net short of -57,755 contracts (cumulative). In options, they are net short, not long, with an index options net sell of -12,987 contracts (daily). This implies FIIs are hedging downside risks or betting on stagnation.

 DIIs are net buyers in cash (+7,940), providing a counterbalance. Pro traders are net short (-3,049), aligning with FIIs’ caution.

Wyckoff Phase Assessment

Accumulation (Confirmed): 

Price action shows repeated tests of 24,750–24,900 (16th–19th June) with higher lows and a spring-like bounce from 24,926 (stop-loss for shorts) on 20th June. 

Volume and open interest indicate declining sell-side pressure (FII futures shorts reduced from -101,743 to -57,755), with DIIs absorbing supply through cash market support.

Markup (Early Signs):

 Nifty crossed 25,000 with +1.29% gains (1-hour chart). Hurdles include 25,252 (R2), the first supply zone, and 25,377 (R3), a strong resistance from a previous distribution area. Confirmation requires a sustained close above 25,252 with rising volume and FIIs further reducing futures shorts. A failure to hold 25,052 (R1) may signal a false breakout, revisiting 24,926–24,750.

Key Levels & Labels

The level 25,377 (R3) is a resistance and distribution zone where profit-taking is likely.

25,252 (R2) is the breakout confirmation level. 

25,052 (R1) serves as a support and intraday pullback pivot. 

24,926 is a critical stop-loss, marking the accumulation low; a breach invalidates the markup.

 24,750 is a strong support, representing the accumulation base and a tug-of-war between DIIs and FIIs.

Probable Scenarios

Bullish (30% Probability): A close above 25,377 targets 25,500–25,600, requiring FIIs to cover shorts and DIIs to sustain cash buys. 

Bearish (50% Probability): Rejection at R2/R3 resumes a downtrend to 24,750, triggered by FIIs increasing futures shorts or DIIs stepping back. 

Range-Bound (20%): Choppy action between 25,052–25,377 until clearer signals emerge.

Trading Plan

For longs, enter only above 25,252 with a stop-loss at 25,052, targeting 25,377. 

For shorts, enter below 24,926, targeting 24,750 with a stop at 25,052.

 Watch FII futures open interest over the next two sessions and DII cash market activity for continuation of support.

Data Gaps & Next Steps

Monitor NSE’s FII/DII activity sheet for updates.

Final Note

The market is at a tipping point. FIIs’ heavy shorts in futures and options suggest skepticism, but DIIs’ buying could fuel a markup if sustained. Trade levels, not biases.

Sources: NSE oi data, 

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty at the Edge: 24,793 Close Reflects Mounting Pressure from Smart Money Shorts

 Nifty at the Edge: 24,793 Close Reflects Mounting Pressure from Smart Money Shorts”

🗓 Market Recap – 19th June 2025

The Nifty 50 closed at 24,793, slipping further into the zone of caution amid renewed short build-up in index futures and a slightly muted stance in options. Institutional cash flows, although modest, reflect a defensive undertone, while derivatives show a clear preference for downside hedging.

🔍 Key Derivatives Statistics

                    Metric 18 June 19 June Change Interpretation

📉 Futures Index Net -57,861 -63,853 -5,992 Fresh short buildup

🧾 Option Index Net (FII+PRO) 48,788 48,025 -763 Slight unwinding; caution intact

💼 Institutional Cash Flow:

    Category 18 June                  19 June

🔻 FII Cash ₹890 Cr (Buy) ₹934 Cr (Buy)

🔺 DII Cash ₹1,051 Cr (Buy) ₹605 Cr (Buy)

📝 Insight:

Contrary to earlier assumptions of heavy FII selling, FIIs and DIIs both remained net buyers, though with reduced intensity on 19th June. The buying was likely defensive, not aggressive — matching the conservative option positioning.

🧠 What It Means:

Futures data shows a bearish bias, with nearly 6,000 new net shorts added.

Options data shows hesitation, as the slight drop in net long positions hints at limited conviction.

Cash buying from FIIs and DIIs is a supportive signal, but unless derivatives shift, upside looks capped.

🏦 Bank Nifty Overview:

Closed at 55,577, showing a more balanced structure.

No major shifts in OI or aggressive cash flow—neutral to supportive.

🔮 Outlook for 20th June 2025:

Index Resistance Support

Nifty 24,930 / 25,050 24,700 / 24,580

Bank Nifty 55,800           55,300

📌 Conclusion:

Despite a modest net buy figure by FIIs & DIIs, the short buildup in futures and reduction in option longs signals that the market is hedging against downside risk. With Nifty closing at 24,793, all eyes are on the 24,700 support — a breakdown below it could open floodgates to 24,580.

For a shift in sentiment:

Futures shorts need to unwind

Option net positions must rebuild

Cash flows should turn stronger

Until then, stay defensive and tactical.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

Unleashing the Power of Nifty 50

 Unleashing the Power of Nifty 50

 Decoding Market Trends and Insights 

Market Overview

As of June 19, 2025, the Nifty 50 index closed at 24,798.75, reflecting a stable performance with a 0.00% change over the last hour. The chart analysis reveals a critical "Sell Zone" around 24,260 (-0.17% to -0.17%), suggesting potential downward pressure. Conversely, a "Buy Zone" emerges at the same level, indicating a consolidation phase. The breakout target stands at 25,077.87, while the breakdown target is at 24,556.28, providing key levels for traders to watch.

Technical Insights

EMAs and VWAP: The 5-day, 55-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) show a bearish crossover, with the 200-day EMA at 24,260 acting as a significant support/resistance level. The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 24,798 aligns with the current price, reinforcing market equilibrium.

MACD and RSI: 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a bearish momentum with a value of -3.78, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.45 suggests a neutral stance, nearing oversold territory.

Support and Resistance: 

Key support levels (S1-S3) range from 24,760.52 to 24,600.00, while resistance levels (R1-R4) extend from 25,047.57 to 25,320.00.

Futures and Options Analysis

Future Index Net: Recent data shows a mixed trend, with daily index futures variation oscillating between -63,324 (22.5.25) and 156,231 (23.5.25), reflecting short-term volatility.

Option Index Net: Daily index option variation fluctuates significantly, from -202,916 (22.5.25) to 235,961 (23.5.25), indicating active hedging and speculative activity.

Nifty 50 Closing Price: Consistent around 24,700-25,000 range, with NiftyBank closing at 55,572 on 26.5.25, showing resilience in banking stocks.

Institutional Activity 

FII and DII Trends: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have shown net selling, with cumulative figures dropping to -58,317 on 26.5.25 from 270,089 on 16.5.25. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have countered with net buying, reaching 60,44 on 26.5.25, suggesting a bullish domestic outlook.

Pro and Cumulative Data: Professional activity and cumulative positions indicate a cautious approach, with FIIs reducing exposure (-46,369 on 26.5.25) and DIIs maintaining steady accumulation.

Strategic Outlook

The Nifty 50’s current stability masks underlying volatility, driven by FII selling and DII buying. Traders should monitor the 24,760 level closely— a break below may trigger a decline to 24,556, while a push above 25,077 could signal a bullish rally.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor .

Decoding the Market Pulse: Smart Money Moves Behind NIFTY 50 Swings

 Decoding the Market Pulse: Smart Money Moves Behind NIFTY 50 Swings

An Analytical Dive into Institutional Footprints and Price Behavior – Updated as on June 18, 2025

📌 Market Context Overview

As of June 18, 2025, the NIFTY 50 closed near 24,798.75, holding critical support levels despite volatility driven by institutional repositioning. The price action on the hourly chart indicates a rejection near the 25,200–25,250 zone — a historically significant supply zone, and a pivot point for future direction.

🔍 Key Technical Highlights (1-Hour Chart)

Breakout Resistance: 25,077–25,250

Sell Zone: 24,850–24,980 (Highlighted with rejection wicks)

Buy Zone Support: 24,650–24,700

Breakdown Alert: Sustained move below 24,546 could trigger sharp selling

MACD: Bearish crossover with momentum fading

RSI: Neutral at 45.45, hinting at indecisiveness

🧠 Smart Money Activity Breakdown (FIIs, DIIs, PROs)

Date FII Net (Cash ₹ Cr) DII Net (Cash ₹ Cr) PRO Net (Cash ₹ Cr) Index Futures Index Options

18-Jun 11,028 24,946 55,944 -10,413 -65,529

17-Jun -3,289 13,320 55,527 -25,413 -76,557

14-Jun -11,931 -17,871 -10,117 -17,041 -73,268

🧾 Key Observations:

Despite weak Futures/Options positioning, FIIs turned strong net buyers in cash on 18-June, indicating possible bottom fishing.

DIIs continue aggressive accumulation, absorbing selling pressure from PROs.

A shift in cumulative FII index futures suggests unwinding of shorts, preparing for a possible reversal rally if levels hold.

📊 Strategic Price Zones (As per chart)

Zone Type Price Range Action

Breakout Target 25,077–25,250 Bullish rally potential on close above

SL for Shorts 24,985 Shorts invalidated above this

Buy Zone 24,650–24,700 Ideal accumulation zone

SL for Longs 24,553 Break below invalidates bullish bias

Breakdown Target 24,546–24,520 Severe bearish momentum if breached

🔁 Cumulative Institutional Positioning (Trend Summary)

FII Futures (Net): Sharp reduction in net shorts from -104K to -65K

PRO Index Options: From +320K to +270K suggests hedging or short covering

DII Consistency: Maintaining net positive positions every session – a strong support signal

📈 NIFTY 50 – Outlook Ahead

With a close above 24,750, and supportive DII flows, the short-term bias is neutral-to-positive, but watch for:

Hourly breakout above 25,050 for aggressive longs.

Breakdown below 24,550 invalidates upside setup.

Risk-averse traders may wait for directional clarity around weekly expiry (Thursday), while smart money footprints indicate potential range contraction before a directional expansion.

🧾 Conclusion

Institutional data reveals accumulation beneath resistance. While PROs hedge with options, DIIs are building strong support in the cash market. Keep watch on MACD for bullish crossover confirmation and VWAP reclaim on hourly to align long trades with smart money cues.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects author's views; For investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

📊 Source: NSE India | Chart Tool: TradingView | Analysis Date: June 18, 2025

Nifty 50 at a Crossroads: Institutional Moves Signal Volatile Days Ahead"

 

📉 Nifty 50 at a Crossroads: Institutional Moves Signal Volatile Days Ahead

🗓️ Date: 17th June 2025 | Index Close: 24,853 (-93 pts)

Nifty 50 dipped for the second consecutive session, closing at 24,853, slightly above key pivot levels, amidst visible profit booking and institutional hedging. The market showed signs of distribution despite positive cash inflows from DIIs and PROs, while FII derivatives positioning remains notably bearish.

📈 Technical Snapshot

On the 1-hour chart:

Trend Indicators: Nifty is trading below the 20 & 55 EMA, showing a weakening intraday trend.

VWAP + BB: Price staying below VWAP and BB median suggests short-term sellers dominate.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 24,889 (R1), 25,020 (SAR & VWAP zone), 25,152 (R3)

Support: 24,828 (Pivot), 24,796 (BC), 24,630–24,620 (Demand zone)

MACD: Bearish crossover in place with decreasing histogram strength.

RSI: Flattened near 45–49 indicating indecision.

🧠Derivative Activity – Institutional Flow (17th June 2025)

Segment 17-Jun-25 16-Jun-25 Change

FII Futures Net ₹46,270 Cr ₹46,627 Cr ▼ Slight unwind

FII Options Net ₹-99,483 Cr ₹-1,01,743 Cr ▲ Minor recovery

Daily Futures Var ₹-16,874 Cr ₹-10,413 Cr ▼ Increased shorting

Daily Options Var ₹-70,087 Cr ₹-65,529 Cr ▼ Heavier unwinding

Cash (FII) ₹-4,558 Cr ₹+11,028 Cr ▼ Bearish reversal

Cash (DII) ₹+24,946 Cr ₹+24,946 Cr ➖ Consistent support

Cash (PRO) ₹+55,944 Cr ₹+55,944 Cr ➖ Stable accumulation

Key Insight: 

FIIs are increasingly relying on short options positions for downside protection, indicating rising volatility expectations. The drop in FII cash to net outflows and increased derivatives shorting is a red flag.

🔍 Cumulative Flow Trend (FIIs & PROs)

Date FII Cumulative (₹ Cr) PRO Cumulative (₹ Cr)

17-Jun -2,00,024 8,207

16-Jun 2,38,063 5,780

13-Jun 1,33,204 3,041

12-Jun -1,78,705 9,393

11-Jun 30,110             1,584

📉 Observation:

FII positions swung massively from +2.38 lakh Cr to -2 lakh Cr in a single session—pointing to aggressive repositioning, potentially due to global factors or anticipation of domestic macro data.

PRO traders are cautiously adding longs, providing some cushion to the downside.

💡 Probable Nifty Scenarios Ahead

🟩 Bullish Case:

Above 25,020 (VWAP + J10SAR): Opens a window for short-covering till 25,150–25,200.

Momentum likely if DIIs continue supporting with cash and FIIs pare down shorts.

🟥 Bearish Case:

Break below 24,796: May lead to further slide toward 24,620–24,600 demand zone.

FII derivatives and cash alignment suggest institutions are expecting downside.

📌 Conclusion: “Caution Prevails Until 25,020 Is Conquered”

With the institutional stance turning defensive and FII flows reversing into net outflows, Nifty is under pressure despite DII support. The index is likely to remain range-bound between 24,600–25,100 until clarity emerges from global markets and sector leadership returns.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

Navigating Market Winds: Decoding Nifty 50 Movements and Institutional Flows

 Navigating Market Winds: Decoding Nifty 50 Movements and Institutional Flows in May 2025"

The Nifty 50, a benchmark index for the Indian equity market, exhibited notable volatility in May 2025, as reflected in the provided 15-minute chart and institutional activity data. This paper analyzes the index's price action, futures and options variations, and the roles of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), and proprietary traders (PRO) in shaping market dynamics. By integrating technical insights from the chart with institutional flow data sourced from the National Stock Exchange (NSE), we uncover actionable market insights for traders and investor

The Indian stock market, represented by the Nifty 50, is a critical barometer of economic sentiment. In May 2025, the index experienced significant fluctuations, driven by institutional activity and derivative market movements. The provided 15-minute chart of the Nifty 50, dated June 17, 2025, shows a closing price of 24,841.50, down 82.60 points (-0.33%). This paper delves into the interplay between index price movements, futures and options data, and institutional buying/selling patterns to provide a comprehensive market outlook.

Technical Analysis of Nifty 50 Movement

The 15-minute chart of the Nifty 50 reveals a consolidation phase within a defined range. 

Key observations include:

Price Action: 

The index closed at 24,841.50, testing the pivot level (P) of 24,831.80. It remains above the short-term support (S1) at 24,650.00 but below the resistance (R1) at 24,859.95.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price is interacting with the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting indecision. A break above the cloud could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below may indicate bearish pressure.

Support and Resistance Zones: 

The chart marks critical levels—R1 (24,859.95), R2 (25,017.62), and S1 (24,650.00), S2 (24,532.00). The price is in a "SL or Long" zone, indicating a potential setup for a long trade if support holds.

Moving Averages: The price is near the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, reflecting a neutral trend in the short term.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI at the bottom of the chart reads 44.66, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, aligning with the consolidation phase.

Institutional Activity and Market Sentiment

Institutional flows provide critical insights into market direction. The data from May 2025 highlights the following:

FII and DII Activity:

FIIs were net sellers throughout May, with cumulative net sales of ₹202,916 by May 22, reflecting bearish sentiment. However, by May 16, their net sales reduced to ₹46,369, suggesting a potential slowdown in selling pressure.

DIIs, conversely, were net buyers, with cumulative purchases of ₹235,961 by May 23, providing a counterbalance to FII outflows.

Proprietary traders (PRO) showed mixed activity, with net sales of ₹43,907 on May 23, indicating profit-taking or hedging.

Daily Index Futures and Options Variation:

Futures Index Net: FIIs sold ₹65,811 in futures on May 27, while DIIs sold ₹65,603, reflecting bearish positioning in the derivatives market.Options Index Net: FIIs sold ₹35,159 in options by May 28, while PRO bought ₹14,551 on May 29, indicating divergent strategies among participants.

Index Closing PricesNifty 50 Closing Price: The chart shows the Nifty 50 at 24,841.50 on June 17, 2025. 

Cash Market Dynamics

The cash market data shows retail and institutional participation:On May 16, retail cash activity was ₹11,028 (buying), while client activity was ₹238,063 (buying), indicating strong domestic participation.FIIs and DIIs maintained their respective selling and buying trends in the cash market, with FIIs selling ₹65,529 and DIIs buying ₹55,944 by May 16.

Market Insights and Implications institutional Divergence:

 The consistent FII selling in May 2025, contrasted with DII buying, suggests a tug-of-war between global and domestic sentiment. FII outflows may be driven by global risk-off sentiment, while DIIs are capitalizing on dips, supporting the market.

Derivatives Positioning: 

Heavy selling in futures by both FIIs and DIIs indicates bearish expectations in the short term. However, the options market shows mixed signals, with PRO buying potentially signaling hedging or speculative longs.

Technical Setup: 

The Nifty 50’s position near the pivot level and Ichimoku Cloud suggests a breakout is imminent. A move above 24,859.95 (R1) could target 25,017.62 (R2), while a drop below 24,650.00 (S1) may lead to 24,532.00 (S2).

Sectoral Strength: The Nifty Bank Index’s resilience (closing at 55,352 on May 27) highlights the banking sector as a potential safe haven amid broader market uncertainty.

Conclusion 

the Nifty 50’s movement in May 2025 reflects a complex interplay of institutional flows, derivatives activity, and technical factors. FII selling pressure, countered by DII buying, has kept the index in a consolidation phase, as seen in the June 17 chart. Traders should monitor the 24,650.00–24,859.95 range for a breakout, while investors may find opportunities in banking stocks given the Nifty Bank Index’s strength. Future market direction will hinge on global cues, FII behavior, and domestic economic indicators.

References 

National Stock Exchange (NSE) data on institutional flows and index prices.Technical analysis based on the 15-minute Nifty 50 chart.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer :Content reflects author's views for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty 50 on a Slippery Slope:

 

Nifty 50 on a Slippery Slope: 

Bearish Signals Amid FII Sell-OffsThe Nifty 50 index, as observed on the 1-hour chart for June 16, 2025, closed at 24,735.55, marking a decline of 169.60 points or 0.68%. This downward movement aligns with a broader bearish sentiment, supported by technical indicators and open interest data. Let’s dive into the market insights, combining the chart analysis with the provided FII/DII activity and open interest changes.

Technical Analysis: 

Bearish Momentum Building

The Nifty 50 chart shows a sharp drop, with the index breaking below the key support level of 24,953 (S4) and approaching the next support at 24,656 (S1). The price has also breached the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 25,017.62, a critical long-term support, signaling strong bearish momentum. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the chart is at 29.31, indicating an oversold condition, which could hint at a potential short-term bounce. However, the MACD shows a bearish crossover, with the signal line above the MACD line, reinforcing the downward trend.

A notable signal on the chart is the "J10SAR-down at 25021 on 12.6.25," suggesting a bearish reversal pattern that has played out as the index fell below this level.

 The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) for the session is  above the current price in day time frame, indicating that the market is trading at a discount, further pressuring sellers.

Open Interest and FII/DII Activity: 

Selling Pressure Intensifies

The open interest data and FII/DII activity from May 2025 provide context for the current market dynamics. On May 12, 2025, the daily index futures variation showed a net decrease of 17,041 contracts, while the daily index options variation dropped significantly by 178,705 contracts. This substantial unwinding of options positions suggests a reduction in speculative activity, often a precursor to a directional move—here, downward.

FIIs have been net sellers consistently. On May 13, 2025, FIIs sold contracts worth ₹45,912 crore in the futures index, with a cumulative selling of ₹76,557 crore over the period.

 In contrast, DIIs were net buyers at ₹53,065 crore on the same day, attempting to counterbalance the FII selling. 

However, the persistent FII outflows have overwhelmed DII buying, contributing to the bearish pressure on the Nifty 50. 

Proprietary traders (PRO) also showed a net selling of ₹25,413 crore on May 13, adding to the downward momentum.

Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Closing Prices

Nifty 50 Closing Price : 24,735.55 (as per the chart).Bank Nifty Closing Price (May 13, 2025): 55,527 (from the provided data).

Market Insights and Future Movement

Bearish Sentiment Dominates: 

The combination of FII selling, declining open interest in options, and the technical breakdown below key support levels indicates a strong bearish outlook for the Nifty 50. The index is likely to test the next support at 24,656 (S1) and could slide further to 24,613 (BC[p]) if selling pressure continues.

Oversold Conditions May Trigger a Bounce: The RSI at 29.31 suggests the market is oversold, which could lead to a short-term pullback towards the 24,953 (S4) level or the 200 EMA at 25,017.62. However, any bounce may be short-lived unless FIIs turn net buyers.

Bank Nifty Correlation: The Bank Nifty index, a significant driver of Nifty 50 movements, also faced selling pressure in May, with FIIs and PROs offloading positions. This sectoral weakness in banking stocks likely contributed to the Nifty 50’s decline.

Cash Market Dynamics: 

The cash market data shows FIIs selling ₹1,263 crore on May 13, while DIIs bought ₹3,041 crore. This tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs in the cash segment highlights the ongoing uncertainty, but FII dominance in derivatives suggests a bearish bias.

Conclusion:

 Caution Advised for Bulls 

the Nifty 50’s current trajectory points to further downside in the near term, with 24,656 as the immediate support to watch. The persistent FII selling, declining open interest, and technical breakdowns paint a bearish picture.

Traders should remain cautious, as oversold conditions might lead to a temporary bounce, but the broader trend favors the bears. For a reversal, we’d need to see a significant shift in FII activity and a break above the 25,017.62 level.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investors should conduct their own research before making decisions. Content reflects personal views of the author. For trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.