US Tariff on China to impact NIFTY 50

 

Nifty Outlook for Monday, 13 Oct 2025

1. Vision

Global shock from the U.S. plan to impose 130% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp selloff in European & U.S. markets.

OI / flow data shows FIIs remain net short in futures + option skew leans toward downside protection.

Domestic support (DII / retail flows) has been relatively firm, which mitigates (but does not eliminate) downside risk.

Key takeaway: Expect a gap-down open Monday, with probable further intraday weakness. Most likely drawdown in range of 1% to 3%, unless global news over weekend intensifies (then risk of ~4–5%+).

2. Key Technical Levels & Chart Structure

Support / Resistance Zones for Nifty 50

Based on current technical consensus and chart reading:

Zone Level (approx) Significance / Risk Trigger

Immediate Resistance ~ 25,450 If index recovers toward this, sellers may re-emerge. 

Key Resistance Band ~ 25,500 – 25,600 A breakout above could reverse momentum. 

Support Level 1 ~ 25,150 This is a near-term support cited by several analysts. 

Support Level 2 ~ 25,000 A break below could open the path to deeper correction. 

Lower Structural Support ~ 24,700 – 24,500 If downside momentum builds, this zone may act as a “hard floor” in the near term. 

On the chart above (hourly / daily), one can see that price is testing a downsloping channel and possibly forming lower highs, making the support zones critically important.

Technical Indicators Snapshot (as of latest)

RSI / Momentum: Overbought region — warning of limited upside before return of selling. 

MACD / Trend: Still positive “buy” in some signals, but diverging (momentum weakening) 

Volatility & ATR: Elevated, so intraday moves likely to be larger than “normal.” 

Hence, support / resistance levels will be tested sharply.

3. Risk Triggers & Monitoring Checklist (Over Weekend → Pre-Open)

Trigger What to Watch Risk / Impact

Tariff / Policy clarification from U.S. Any formal rule-making, timing, exemptions Could deepen intraday sell-off beyond 3%

China / retaliatory announcements Export controls, counter-tariffs Amplifies spillover to Indian markets

U.S. / Europe equity futures & Asian early cues S&P / Nasdaq futures, Nikkei / KOSPI early open If those are sharply weak, Nifty gap may open 2–3% down

Currency / bond yields INR/USD, 10Y U.S. yields Sharp INR depreciation or rising global yields add pressure

FII / ADR flows commentary Any weekend comment from major funds or large repositioning Could lead to pre-emptive hedging / selling Monday morning

SGX Nifty / GIFT Nifty futures Pre-open levels relative to spot Determines likely gapping direction for Nifty India

Pre-open action plan

Watch SGX / GIFT Nifty futures levels vs. spot.

If futures down >1.5–2%, expect aggressive gap down.

Use first 30 minutes’ momentum confirmation before committing.

Identify if price holds above 25,150 intraday — if so, potential for stabilization or partial rebound.

4. Scenario Forecasts with Price Targets

Here are scenario-based forecasts for Monday:

Scenario Move Range / Target (from ~ 25,285) Comments / Conditions

Base case Moderate decline ~ −1.0% to −2.0% → 25,025 to 24,780 Common for headline shock, but domestic support may cap the fall

Bearish case Sharp decline ~ −2.5% to −3.5% → 24,640 to 24,475 If tariff news worsens, global markets collapse further

Extreme / crash Deep slide >5% drop → < 24,000 Only if weekend brings further surprises (policy, retaliation, credit shock)

If intraday bounce attempts, watch resistance at 25,450, beyond which relief rally attempts may falter.

5. Summary & Recommendations

The risk bias is to the downside on Monday, driven by global catalysts.

The most probable move: gap down, then testing lower supports (25,150 → 25,000).

If 25,150 zone fails decisively, slide to ~24,700 / 24,500 territory becomes possible.

Upside recovery limited until tariff news stabilizes and global markets calm.

Tactically: favor short / hedged trades in aggressive names; protect long positions; watch early momentum and key support zones.

Anish Jagdish Parashar

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty 50 Outlook: 13th October 2025 (Monday) in the shadow of tariffs on China

 

📰 Nifty 50 Outlook: 13th October 2025 (Monday)

Based on Participant-Wise Derivative & Cash Market Activity (Data as on Oct 10, 2025)

🔹 Derivative Overview

The derivatives data for October 10, 2025, indicates modest short covering activity in index futures, reflected by a positive cumulative futures net variance of +2,329 contracts.

This follows a minor negative variation (–942) on October 9, suggesting initial stages of FII short unwinding after persistent bearish positioning through early October.

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,285, up +104 points (0.41%), while Bank Nifty ended at 56,609, up +417 points (0.74%) — confirming intraday resilience despite weak global cues.

🔹 Participant Positioning Snapshot

Participant Futures Index Net Options Index Net Interpretation

FII –1,81,339 –2,67,885 Remain heavily short in index; mild covering seen.

DII +44,690 Neutral Portfolio hedged; long index to offset stock shorts.

PRO +10,391 +1,08,039 Writing both sides of options; expecting consolidation.

Cumulative Futures OI Net: –1,26,258

Cumulative Options OI Net: –1,59,846

The slight improvement in cumulative futures OI and marginal increase in DII index longs indicate technical short covering, while overall structure still favors range-bound to mildly bullish bias.

🔹 Cash Market Activity

Date FII Cash (₹ Cr) DII Cash (₹ Cr) Interpretation

10-Oct-25 +459 +1,707 Continued domestic institutional support; mild FII inflows.

09-Oct-25 +1,308 +864 Sequential DII buying trend sustained.

Interpretation:

Domestic institutions have been consistent net buyers, absorbing foreign selling and providing downside cushion.

FIIs turned mild buyers after several sessions of selling, indicating stabilization of sentiment.

🔹 Index Technicals & Derivative Structure

Daily cumulative futures variance: +2,329 → Confirms short covering.

Option OI variation: –33,455 → Suggests writers booking profits, reducing directional exposure.

Put writing remains concentrated near 25,100, while Call writing is visible near 25,400–25,500 — defining a narrow range.

Technical levels:

Zone Level Interpretation

Resistance 1 25,400–25,450 Key short-term hurdle; watch for FII short covering.

Resistance 2 25,600–25,700 Breakout zone if FIIs add longs.

Support 1 25,100–25,050 First layer of buyer defense.

Support 2 24,800–24,700 Strong support; violation signals deeper correction.

🔹 Probable Movement on Monday (14-Oct-2025)

Scenario Probability Expected Action

Mild Upside (Base Case) 60% Positive open, test of 25,400; may consolidate later.

Follow-Through Rally 20% If SGX Nifty and US cues turn positive → breakout above 25,450.

Profit Booking / Gap Down 20% If global risk-off persists; supports at 25,100 may be tested.

🔹 Outlook Summary Table

Indicator Current Bias Impact on Nifty

FII Index Futures Bearish (shorts reducing) + Mild short covering

DII Index Futures Bullish + Domestic support

PRO Options Neutral Range-bound

Cash Flows Positive + Supports sentiment

Global Cues Cautious – May cap upside

Net Outlook Range-Bound to Mildly Bullish Upside capped near 25,450–25,600

📊 Analyst Viewpoint

 The derivative structure for October 10 reflects the first signs of short covering by FIIs, complemented by strong DII cash inflows.

This setup supports a mild upside bias for Monday’s trade, with the 25,400–25,450 zone acting as a pivot. Sustained trade above this region could attract additional covering and extend the rally toward 25,600+ levels.

However, global volatility and weak US markets warrant caution; traders should maintain a buy-on-dips strategy with strict stop-losses below 25,050.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer :Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor .