Saturday, October 18, 2025
Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorp recently red flags
Chartered Mechanical Engineer by Profession and PG Advance Diploma in Management from ICFAI ,having experience in administration of indirect taxation with DOR ,Govt of India.
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Fundamental of Equities.- Interactive Brokers ;
Game Theory - Stanford University ;
Financial Markets -Yale University ;
Stock Valuation with competitive company analysis -Deprecated Guided Projects.
Sunday, October 12, 2025
US-China Trade War Escalation
US-China Trade War Escalation: Tariff Imposition, Rare Earth Restrictions, and Market Fallout
This accurately captures the root cause of the recent global market selloff on October 10, 2025: President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports—bringing the total effective rate to 130% (on top of the existing 30% duties)—was a direct retaliation to China's imposition of worldwide export restrictions on rare earth minerals. This escalation has reignited fears of a full-blown trade war, with no immediate resolution in sight, as both sides dig in on geopolitical and economic fronts. Below, I'll examine the sequence of events, the mechanics of the animosity, its immediate market impacts (aligning with your provided data), and forward-looking implications, particularly for the Nifty 50 on Monday, October 13, 2025.
1. Sequence of Events: From Rare Earth Curbs to Tariff Retaliation
China's Move (Early October 2025): Beijing imposed strict export controls on rare earth elements (e.g., neodymium, dysprosium)—critical for electronics, EVs, defense tech, and renewables—citing "national security" and environmental concerns. These curbs effectively halted shipments to the US and allies, disrupting global supply chains. China controls ~90% of rare earth processing, making this a potent leverage tool in ongoing US-China tensions.
US Response (October 10, 2025): Trump countered with the 130% tariff threat, set to take effect November 1, 2025, alongside potential software export bans to China. The White House framed it as "reciprocal action" to protect US industries, but analysts see it as election-year posturing amid Trump's 2024 victory.
Chinese Rebuttal (October 12, 2025): Beijing defended the curbs as "legitimate" under WTO rules and accused the US of "double standards," hinting at further retaliation like broader mineral bans or currency devaluation. No de-escalation talks are scheduled, with a potential Trump-Xi summit off the table for now.
This tit-for-tat mirrors 2018–2019 trade war dynamics but feels more entrenched, as rare earths tie into tech/AI dominance and EV transitions—sectors where both nations vie for supremacy.
2. Why the Animosity May Persist (and Escalate)
Geopolitical Stakes: Rare earths aren't just commodities; they're strategic assets. China's curbs target US vulnerabilities in semiconductors and green tech, while US tariffs aim to force supply chain diversification (e.g., to Australia, Vietnam, or India). With Trump's "America First" rhetoric and Xi's self-reliance push, compromise seems unlikely before 2026 midterms or US elections.
Economic Feedback Loops: Tariffs could add $200–300B to US import costs annually, fueling inflation (already at 3.2% CPI in Sep 2025). China may respond with US farm/agri bans or IP theft accusations, prolonging uncertainty.
No Quick Off-Ramp: Historical parallels (e.g., 2019 Phase One deal took 18 months) suggest 6–12 months of volatility. Analysts peg resolution odds at <30% by Q1 2026, with risks of WTO disputes or allied involvement (e.g., EU/Japan tariffs).
In short: This isn't a bluff—it's weaponized trade policy, likely to simmer through year-end, amplifying global risk aversion.
3. Immediate Global Market Impact (October 10, 2025)
Market data aligns precisely with the selloff triggered by Trump's announcement at ~2 PM ET:
US Markets: Nasdaq plunged 3.6% (-820 points) on tech exposure (e.g., Apple, Nvidia reliant on Chinese rare earths/supply chains); Dow -1.9% (-879 points); S&P 500 -2.1%. Crypto wiped $19B, with Bitcoin -8.4%.
Europe: DAX -1.5% (-369 points), FTSE -0.9% (-82 points), CAC 40 down similarly, as tariff ripple effects hit exporters (e.g., German autos facing Chinese retaliation).
Asia: Chinese ADRs -6%; Nikkei/Hang Seng futures -2–3% pre-open. Broader EMs (e.g., Korea, Taiwan) sold off on semiconductor fears.
Volume spiked 40% above average, with VIX (fear gauge) jumping to 22—indicating panic selling over growth/inflation risks. This erased ~$2.5T in global equity value in one session.
4. Implications for Indian Markets (Nifty 50 Focus)
India is somewhat insulated but not immune—global risk-off flows dominate short-term, while structural shifts offer upside. Examining per your OI/cash data (FII short-covering + DII buying on Oct 10):
Short-Term Headwinds (Risk-Off Spillover):
FIIs may pause inflows (+459 cr on Oct 10 could reverse if VIX stays elevated), pressuring Nifty amid rupee weakness (USD/INR ~83.5, up 0.3% post-announcement).
Sectors hit: IT (-2–3% potential, e.g., Infosys/TCS exposed to US tech slowdown); Metals/Mining (rare earth proxy plays volatile); Autos/EVs (supply chain kinks).
Sentiment:Nifty resilience (+0.4% to 25,285) may fade; expect flat-to-down open Monday, with global cues (US futures -0.5% as of Oct 12 evening).
Medium-Term Opportunities (China+1 Beneficiary):
Tariffs make Chinese goods 130% pricier in US, boosting Indian exporters (textiles, pharma, electronics) by 10–15% market share gain. Exports to US could rise 5–7% YoY.
Rare earth diversification: India (e.g., via IREL) eyes 20% global share by 2030; stocks like NMDC/Tata Steel could rally 5–10%.
Broader: DII strength (+1,707 cr on Oct 10) and Q2 earnings (IT/banks next week) provide buffers. CPI (Oct 13) expected at 5.1%—if softer, RBI rate-cut odds rise, supporting bulls.
Correlations from Data: OI trends (FII futures less short at -181k) held despite global drop, but cumulative options OI (-160k) signals hedging. If animosity drags, expect Nifty volatility (India VIX ~16–18).
5. Updated Nifty 50 Prediction for Monday, October 13, 2025
Incorporating this escalation, I revise my prior mildly bullish call to neutral/flat with downside bias (0% to -0.5%):
Expected Range: Open ~25,200–25,300; close 25,150–25,350. Test support at 25,181 (Oct 9 low); resistance capped at 25,200 amid caution.
Scenarios:
Base (60% odds): Muted trading; DII absorbs FII caution, Nifty flat. Watch US open (Oct 13) for tariff clarifications.
Bearish (30%): If China retaliates over weekend (e.g., mineral ban expansion), gap-down to 25,000; Bank Nifty (-0.5–1%) leads losses.
Bullish (10%): De-escalation hints (e.g., WTO talks) or strong CPI push +0.3% to 25,400.
Key Watches: Pre-open GIFT Nifty; FII data (Oct 11); US 10Y yield (if >4.6%, adds pressure). Trade war noise prolongs consolidation—buy dips if Nifty holds 25,000.
This flare-up underscores trade wars' asymmetry: US/China bear the brunt, but EMs like India navigate via agility. If tensions ease post-Q4, Nifty could reclaim 26,000 by Diwali.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial.
Chartered Mechanical Engineer by Profession and PG Advance Diploma in Management from ICFAI ,having experience in administration of indirect taxation with DOR ,Govt of India.
CERTIFICATIONS
Fundamental of Equities.- Interactive Brokers ;
Game Theory - Stanford University ;
Financial Markets -Yale University ;
Stock Valuation with competitive company analysis -Deprecated Guided Projects.
Saturday, October 11, 2025
US Tariff on China to impact NIFTY 50
Nifty Outlook for Monday, 13 Oct 2025
1. Vision
Global shock from the U.S. plan to impose 130% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp selloff in European & U.S. markets.
OI / flow data shows FIIs remain net short in futures + option skew leans toward downside protection.
Domestic support (DII / retail flows) has been relatively firm, which mitigates (but does not eliminate) downside risk.
Key takeaway: Expect a gap-down open Monday, with probable further intraday weakness. Most likely drawdown in range of 1% to 3%, unless global news over weekend intensifies (then risk of ~4–5%+).
2. Key Technical Levels & Chart Structure
Support / Resistance Zones for Nifty 50
Based on current technical consensus and chart reading:
Zone Level (approx) Significance / Risk Trigger
Immediate Resistance ~ 25,450 If index recovers toward this, sellers may re-emerge.
Key Resistance Band ~ 25,500 – 25,600 A breakout above could reverse momentum.
Support Level 1 ~ 25,150 This is a near-term support cited by several analysts.
Support Level 2 ~ 25,000 A break below could open the path to deeper correction.
Lower Structural Support ~ 24,700 – 24,500 If downside momentum builds, this zone may act as a “hard floor” in the near term.
On the chart above (hourly / daily), one can see that price is testing a downsloping channel and possibly forming lower highs, making the support zones critically important.
Technical Indicators Snapshot (as of latest)
RSI / Momentum: Overbought region — warning of limited upside before return of selling.
MACD / Trend: Still positive “buy” in some signals, but diverging (momentum weakening)
Volatility & ATR: Elevated, so intraday moves likely to be larger than “normal.”
Hence, support / resistance levels will be tested sharply.
3. Risk Triggers & Monitoring Checklist (Over Weekend → Pre-Open)
Trigger What to Watch Risk / Impact
Tariff / Policy clarification from U.S. Any formal rule-making, timing, exemptions Could deepen intraday sell-off beyond 3%
China / retaliatory announcements Export controls, counter-tariffs Amplifies spillover to Indian markets
U.S. / Europe equity futures & Asian early cues S&P / Nasdaq futures, Nikkei / KOSPI early open If those are sharply weak, Nifty gap may open 2–3% down
Currency / bond yields INR/USD, 10Y U.S. yields Sharp INR depreciation or rising global yields add pressure
FII / ADR flows commentary Any weekend comment from major funds or large repositioning Could lead to pre-emptive hedging / selling Monday morning
SGX Nifty / GIFT Nifty futures Pre-open levels relative to spot Determines likely gapping direction for Nifty India
Pre-open action plan
Watch SGX / GIFT Nifty futures levels vs. spot.
If futures down >1.5–2%, expect aggressive gap down.
Use first 30 minutes’ momentum confirmation before committing.
Identify if price holds above 25,150 intraday — if so, potential for stabilization or partial rebound.
4. Scenario Forecasts with Price Targets
Here are scenario-based forecasts for Monday:
Scenario Move Range / Target (from ~ 25,285) Comments / Conditions
Base case Moderate decline ~ −1.0% to −2.0% → 25,025 to 24,780 Common for headline shock, but domestic support may cap the fall
Bearish case Sharp decline ~ −2.5% to −3.5% → 24,640 to 24,475 If tariff news worsens, global markets collapse further
Extreme / crash Deep slide >5% drop → < 24,000 Only if weekend brings further surprises (policy, retaliation, credit shock)
If intraday bounce attempts, watch resistance at 25,450, beyond which relief rally attempts may falter.
5. Summary & Recommendations
The risk bias is to the downside on Monday, driven by global catalysts.
The most probable move: gap down, then testing lower supports (25,150 → 25,000).
If 25,150 zone fails decisively, slide to ~24,700 / 24,500 territory becomes possible.
Upside recovery limited until tariff news stabilizes and global markets calm.
Tactically: favor short / hedged trades in aggressive names; protect long positions; watch early momentum and key support zones.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.
Chartered Mechanical Engineer by Profession and PG Advance Diploma in Management from ICFAI ,having experience in administration of indirect taxation with DOR ,Govt of India.
CERTIFICATIONS
Fundamental of Equities.- Interactive Brokers ;
Game Theory - Stanford University ;
Financial Markets -Yale University ;
Stock Valuation with competitive company analysis -Deprecated Guided Projects.
Nifty 50 Outlook: 13th October 2025 (Monday) in the shadow of tariffs on China
📰 Nifty 50 Outlook: 13th October 2025 (Monday)
Based on Participant-Wise Derivative & Cash Market Activity (Data as on Oct 10, 2025)
🔹 Derivative Overview
The derivatives data for October 10, 2025, indicates modest short covering activity in index futures, reflected by a positive cumulative futures net variance of +2,329 contracts.
This follows a minor negative variation (–942) on October 9, suggesting initial stages of FII short unwinding after persistent bearish positioning through early October.
The Nifty 50 closed at 25,285, up +104 points (0.41%), while Bank Nifty ended at 56,609, up +417 points (0.74%) — confirming intraday resilience despite weak global cues.
🔹 Participant Positioning Snapshot
Participant Futures Index Net Options Index Net Interpretation
FII –1,81,339 –2,67,885 Remain heavily short in index; mild covering seen.
DII +44,690 Neutral Portfolio hedged; long index to offset stock shorts.
PRO +10,391 +1,08,039 Writing both sides of options; expecting consolidation.
Cumulative Futures OI Net: –1,26,258
Cumulative Options OI Net: –1,59,846
The slight improvement in cumulative futures OI and marginal increase in DII index longs indicate technical short covering, while overall structure still favors range-bound to mildly bullish bias.
🔹 Cash Market Activity
Date FII Cash (₹ Cr) DII Cash (₹ Cr) Interpretation
10-Oct-25 +459 +1,707 Continued domestic institutional support; mild FII inflows.
09-Oct-25 +1,308 +864 Sequential DII buying trend sustained.
Interpretation:
Domestic institutions have been consistent net buyers, absorbing foreign selling and providing downside cushion.
FIIs turned mild buyers after several sessions of selling, indicating stabilization of sentiment.
🔹 Index Technicals & Derivative Structure
Daily cumulative futures variance: +2,329 → Confirms short covering.
Option OI variation: –33,455 → Suggests writers booking profits, reducing directional exposure.
Put writing remains concentrated near 25,100, while Call writing is visible near 25,400–25,500 — defining a narrow range.
Technical levels:
Zone Level Interpretation
Resistance 1 25,400–25,450 Key short-term hurdle; watch for FII short covering.
Resistance 2 25,600–25,700 Breakout zone if FIIs add longs.
Support 1 25,100–25,050 First layer of buyer defense.
Support 2 24,800–24,700 Strong support; violation signals deeper correction.
🔹 Probable Movement on Monday (14-Oct-2025)
Scenario Probability Expected Action
Mild Upside (Base Case) 60% Positive open, test of 25,400; may consolidate later.
Follow-Through Rally 20% If SGX Nifty and US cues turn positive → breakout above 25,450.
Profit Booking / Gap Down 20% If global risk-off persists; supports at 25,100 may be tested.
🔹 Outlook Summary Table
Indicator Current Bias Impact on Nifty
FII Index Futures Bearish (shorts reducing) + Mild short covering
DII Index Futures Bullish + Domestic support
PRO Options Neutral Range-bound
Cash Flows Positive + Supports sentiment
Global Cues Cautious – May cap upside
Net Outlook Range-Bound to Mildly Bullish Upside capped near 25,450–25,600
📊 Analyst Viewpoint
The derivative structure for October 10 reflects the first signs of short covering by FIIs, complemented by strong DII cash inflows.
This setup supports a mild upside bias for Monday’s trade, with the 25,400–25,450 zone acting as a pivot. Sustained trade above this region could attract additional covering and extend the rally toward 25,600+ levels.
However, global volatility and weak US markets warrant caution; traders should maintain a buy-on-dips strategy with strict stop-losses below 25,050.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer :Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor .
Chartered Mechanical Engineer by Profession and PG Advance Diploma in Management from ICFAI ,having experience in administration of indirect taxation with DOR ,Govt of India.
CERTIFICATIONS
Fundamental of Equities.- Interactive Brokers ;
Game Theory - Stanford University ;
Financial Markets -Yale University ;
Stock Valuation with competitive company analysis -Deprecated Guided Projects.
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