📉 Nifty50 Market Sentiment & Probable Movement (Post 04-02-26 Close)
1️⃣ Global Cue Overlay (Risk-Off Bias)
Nasdaq 100: -1.77% with downward stochastic roll-over
Momentum loss + tech weakness → negative overnight sentiment
Historically, such Nasdaq stochastic falls spill into Indian IT & index futures the next session
➡️ Global bias: Bearish to cautious
2️⃣ Futures Positioning (Dominant Signal)
🔍 04-02-26 Snapshot
Participant
Net Futures OI
FII
-147,316 (Short buildup)
PRO
-30,761
DII
+81,551 (Defensive longs)
Cumulative
-96,526
📌 Interpretation
FIIs continue aggressive short carry
DIIs absorbing supply → support creation, not trend reversal
PROs aligned with FIIs (bearishly tilted)
➡️ Trend control: FIIs (Bearish)
3️⃣ Options OI & Strike-wise Structure (Very Important)
🔑 Key Levels (10 Feb Expiry)
Max Pain: 25,750
PCR: 0.97 (Neutral → bearish tilt)
Heavy Call Writing:
25,800
26,000 (Major ceiling)
Put Support:
25,700
25,650 (weakening — put OI exiting)
📉 Cumulative Option OI: -1,87,185
👉 Net option positioning is bearish, despite intraday green candles
4️⃣ Price + Chart Structure (Daily TF)
Close: 25,776
Rejection from 25,950–26,000 supply band
Price below declining short EMAs
RSI ~55 → room to fall
No bullish volume confirmation
Bounce candles = short covering, not fresh longs
➡️ Structure: Pullback in a broader corrective phase
5️⃣ Cash Market Confirmation
FII Cash (04-02): +₹29 Cr ❌ Too small to matter
DII Cash: +₹249 Cr → only stabilizing, not trend-changing
📌 Futures + options outweigh cash flows → bearish bias remains intact
🔮 Probable Nifty50 Movement (Next Session)
🟥 Base Case (High Probability – ~60%)
Gap-down / flat-to-negative open
Range: 25,700 → 25,500
Any rise towards 25,900–26,000 = SELL ON RISE
🟧 Alternative Case (30%)
Hold above 25,700
Sideways consolidation 25,700–25,900
Volatility contraction before next leg
🟩 Bullish Surprise (Low – <10%)
Sustained trade above 26,000 with volume
Requires Nasdaq stabilization + FII short covering (currently absent)
🎯 Key Levels to Track
Resistance: 25,900 / 26,000
Immediate Support: 25,700
Breakdown Trigger: 25,650
Bearish Extension: 25,450 → 25,300
📌 Final Verdict
Market sentiment remains BEARISH-TO-RANGEBOUND
This bounce is structural short-covering, not trend reversal.
Nasdaq weakness + persistent FII shorts + call-heavy option structure = downside risk intact.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content is for academic purposes &reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
