Vision and views
1️⃣ Current Market Sentiment (as of 02-02-2026)
A. Futures OI – Clear Trend
FIIs:
Persistent heavy net shorts for weeks
Latest: -1,97,139 contracts
DIIs:
Consistently net long
Latest: +70,219 contracts
PROs:
Flat to marginally short
🔴 Inference:
This is a textbook distribution phase where FIIs are aggressively pressing shorts and DIIs are absorbing supply, but price is still breaking down, which tells us DII longs are defensive, not directional.
B. Options OI – Bearish Control
Cumulative Option OI: -7.07 lakh (extremely negative)
FIIs:
Large call writing
Limited put writing → no confidence in downside protection
PROs:
Supporting FII structure (net short bias)
🔴 Inference:
This is trend continuation positioning, not hedging.
Market is being sold on rises.
C. Cash Market Confirmation
FII Cash: -₹1,832 Cr
DII Cash: +₹2,446 Cr
🔴 Inference:
Classic FII sell → DII absorb, but index still falling, which means:
Smart money (FIIs) remains right for now.
2️⃣ Daily Chart Reading
Key Technical Observations
Structure: Lower highs + lower lows → intact downtrend
Breakdown:
Decisive break below 25,200–25,100 VWAP / MA cluster
Long lower wick near 24,650–24,700 (S1):
Indicates temporary short covering, not reversal
Price still below:
20-DMA
VWAP
Ichimoku base / mid bands
🟡 Important:
No bullish follow-through candle yet → bounce is technical, fragile
3️⃣ Probable Nifty50 Movement (Next 1–3 Sessions)
Base Case (High Probability – 65%)
Bearish to range-down bias
Resistance zone:
👉 25,150 – 25,300
Selling likely on pullbacks
Probable range:
24,600 – 25,300
Bearish Continuation Scenario
Triggered if:
25,150 fails decisively
FIIs add fresh shorts (OI + price down)
🎯 Targets:
24,600
24,400
Extension: 24,150–24,200 (gap + weekly support)
Short-Covering Bounce Scenario (Low Probability – 35%)
Possible only if:
Sustains above 25,300
Option OI starts unwinding calls
🎯 Bounce targets:
25,450
25,650
This would still be a sell-on-rise unless FIIs flip futures long (no signs yet).
4️⃣ Sentiment Verdict (Very Important)
🔴 Market is in “policy-shock + positioning unwind” phase
STT hike + prior bearish positioning → FIIs got momentum
Current structure resembles:
Jan–Mar 2020 style grinding sell-off (without panic yet)
📌 Key takeaway:
This is NOT a bottom-formation setup.
This is controlled bearish trend with intermittent short-covering bounces.
5️⃣ Actionable Trading Bias (Index Only)
Positional traders:
👉 Stay net bearish below 25,300
Intraday:
👉 Sell near VWAP / 20-DMA rejections
Options:
👉 Bear Call Spreads or Call Writing on rise
👉 Avoid naked puts until FIIs cover futures shorts
🔑 Final One-Line Summary
As long as FIIs remain heavily short in futures and dominant in call writing, Nifty bounces are corrective, not trend-changing. Downside risk remains open toward 24,400–24,200.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india online research
Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.
