Wednesday, December 31, 2025

NIFTY 50 – DERIVATIVES & MARKET MOVEMENT

 



NIFTY 50 – DERIVATIVES & MARKET STRUCTURE BRIEF

Date: 30 December 2025

Index Close: 25,938

Time Frame: Daily

Approach: Participant-wise Futures & Options OI, VPVR, Price Structure

 View & Vision 

Nifty 50 continues to trade within a distribution-led, sell-on-rise structure, driven by persistent FII index futures shorts, option writer dominance, and clear supply concentration near the 26,000 zone. While intraday option short covering has prevented sharp downside, the broader derivatives positioning does not yet support a sustainable upside reversal.

Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral

Strategy Preference: Sell on rallies until structural levels are reclaimed

1. Futures Positioning: Directional Control Remains with FIIs

FIIs:

Persistently net short index futures through December

Latest (30 Dec): –1.44 lakh contracts

No evidence of sustained short covering → indicates positional bearish conviction

DIIs:

Consistently net long index futures

Acting as shock absorbers, limiting downside velocity

PROs:

Recently aligned with FIIs via net short exposure

Inference:

The futures market reflects distribution rather than accumulation. DII support is preventing panic declines, but FII shorts continue to define directional bias.

Futures Sentiment: Bearish / Range-Bound

2. Options Market: Writer Control with Tactical Adjustments

Cumulative Option OI:

Remains deeply negative (–3.46 lakh)

Confirms net option writing dominance

Daily Option OI Change (30 Dec):

+2.65 lakh contracts

Indicates intraday short covering / hedge rebalancing, not trend reversal

Inference:

Option writers are defending downside while capping upside, creating a compressed trading range. This explains the market’s inability to trend despite volatility.

3. Price Structure & Volume Profile (VPVR)



Major Supply Zone: 26,000 – 26,100

Heavy call OI and volume concentration

Repeated rejection zone

Value Acceptance Area: 25,900 – 25,950

Current price trading within value

Indicates equilibrium, not initiative buying

Lower Demand Zone: 25,820 – 25,800

HVN support + moving average confluence

Critical structural support

Momentum:

RSI near neutral (~49)

No bullish impulse; no oversold condition

Inference:

Price action confirms a distribution phase, not a base formation.

4. Key Levels & Triggers

Category

Level / Zone

Interpretation

Primary Resistance

26,000 – 26,100

Strong supply; sell-on-rise zone

Structural Invalidation

26,150 – 26,200

Requires futures short covering + call unwinding

Value Area

25,900 – 25,950

Consolidation / equilibrium

Immediate Support

25,820 – 25,800

Critical make-or-break zone

Bearish Trigger

Daily close below 25,800

Downside momentum activates

Downside Target I

25,600

Likely pause / partial covering

Downside Target II

25,500

Strong historical demand

Bullish Reversal

Sustained above 26,150

Structural trend change

5. Scenario Outlook (1–3 Sessions)

Base Case (High Probability)

Expected Range: 25,800 – 26,050

Strategy:

Sell on rallies towards 26,000–26,100

Avoid aggressive longs inside supply zone

Bearish Expansion Scenario

Trigger: Daily close below 25,800

Confirmation:

Fresh futures short build-up

Put OI unwinding

Targets: 25,600 → 25,500

Bullish Invalidation (Low Probability Currently)

Requires:

Sustained acceptance above 26,150

Visible FII futures short covering

Call OI unwinding above 26,000

Until then, upside moves remain corrective.

6. Key Risks to Monitor

Sudden FII futures short covering

Rapid reduction in cumulative option OI

External risk-on triggers impacting overnight sentiment

Conclusion

The Nifty 50 remains structurally capped below 26,000, with derivatives data continuing to favour a controlled bearish bias. While downside is being actively defended, the absence of futures short covering and the persistence of option supply suggest that sell-on-rise strategies remain statistically favourable until proven otherwise.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author;for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Tuesday, December 30, 2025

NIFTY 50 – Market Sentiment (as of 29-12-25)

 



NIFTY 50 – Market Sentiment (as of 29-12-25)

Close: 25,942

Trend Context: Range-to-bearish with fading upside momentum

1️⃣ Futures Positioning – Clear Bearish Bias (No Short Cover Yet)

What stands out

FII futures: persistently net short and increasing

29 Dec: –1.55 lakh contracts

Cumulative futures OI: –1.08 lakh → shorts still dominant

Daily futures OI change: –9,221

→ Mild reduction, but not meaningful short covering

Interpretation

FIIs are not unwinding shorts aggressively

DIIs are supporting, but not strong enough to flip trend

This is distribution / sell-on-rise, not trend reversal

📌 Futures signal: Bearish to neutral, downside risk intact

2️⃣ Options OI – Heavy Ceiling, Weak Put Support

Key observations

Cumulative option OI: –6.11 lakh (deeply negative)

FII option OI: –2.93 lakh

PRO option OI: –3.18 lakh

Daily option OI change: +15,262 → Fresh option writing, mostly calls

What this tells us

Strong call writing above spot

Put writers are not defending aggressively

Upside rallies are being sold into

📌 Options signal: Strong upside supply, weak downside conviction

3️⃣ Cash Market – Distribution, Not Accumulation

FII cash: –₹2,759 Cr

DII cash: +₹2,643 Cr

Interpretation

Classic FII sell → DII absorb

This stalls upside, but doesn’t create trending rally

Index drifts lower or remains capped

📌 Cash signal: Range cap remains

4️⃣ Chart Read (Attached) – Momentum Rolling Over

Price & Structure

Price below short EMAs, struggling near VWAP zone

High Volume Node (HVN) visible near 26,000–26,100 → strong rejection area

Indicators

MACD: bearish crossover, histogram negative

RSI (14): ~49 → Below bullish zone, no positive divergence

📌 Chart signal: Weak bounce attempts, sellers active near 26k

5️⃣ Key Levels (Derived from OI + Chart)

Resistance (Sell-on-rise zone)

26,000 – 26,100 → HVN + call writing

26,200 → strong call defense

Supports

25,800 → minor support

25,650 – 25,600 → VWAP + EMA zone

25,400 → breakdown risk zone

6️⃣ Market Sentiment Summary

Overall Bias: ⚠️ Bearish-to-Range

FIIs remain structurally short (futures + options)

Upside rallies are likely to be capped

Any bounce towards 26,000+ is a selling opportunity

No evidence yet of trend-changing short covering

7️⃣ Tactical Outlook (Very Important)

For Bulls

Avoid positional longs below 26,100

Only scalp longs near VWAP / 25,600–25,700 with strict SL

For Bears

Preferred strategy: Sell on rise

Aggressive shorts only below 25,800

Safe positional shorts: 26,000–26,100 rejection

One-Line Verdict

“This is not a trending bull market—it is a structurally short, option-capped market where rallies are distribution events, not breakouts.”

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Saturday, December 27, 2025

Nifty50 probable movement on 29.12.25




 Nifty50 probable movement 

1️⃣ View and Vision

Futures positioning (Index)

FIIs:

Net –1.39 lakh contracts → persistent structural short

DIIs:

Net +36.6k → supporting market on declines

PROs:

Small long (+3.8k) → tactical, not aggressive

Cumulative futures OI: –98,707

Daily futures OI change: –16,665

📌 Interpretation

This is not fresh short build-up.

This is gradual short covering by FIIs, but without flipping net long.

➡️ Bias: Short covering rally exhausted near resistance, not trend reversal.

Options positioning (very important)

FII option OI net: –2.88 lakh

PRO option OI net: –3.37 lakh

Cumulative option OI: –6.26 lakh

Daily option OI change: –2.02 lakh

📌 Interpretation

Heavy option short covering already done

Volatility compression phase ending

No fresh aggressive directional option bets

➡️ Bias: Market is losing momentum after covering phase.

Cash market

FII cash: –₹317 Cr

DII cash: +₹1,772 Cr

📌 Interpretation

FIIs are still sellers on rise

DIIs absorbing supply → preventing sharp fall

➡️ Bias: Sell-on-rise supply from FIIs continues.

2️⃣ What the chart (attached) confirms technically

Price & Volume Profile OI based(VPVR)

Major HVN zone. OI based: 25,950 – 26,100

Current close: 26,042

📌 Price is sitting inside value, not expanding away from it.

➡️ Market condition: Balance / auction zone

Moving averages

Price below short-term MA

Above long-term MA (200 DMA area ~25,600)

➡️ Structure:

Short-term: weak

Medium-term: still protected

Momentum indicators

RSI ~53 → neutral, no strength

MACD: mild positive crossover but flat histogram

➡️ Momentum: Dying upside momentum, not trending

3️⃣ Multi-day OI context (important)

From 05-12 to 26-12:

Every rally attempt happened with:

FII futures still net short

Option OI reducing (covering), not building

Each time covering ended → price stalled near 26,100–26,200

📌 This is textbook range distribution, not accumulation.

4️⃣ Final Market Sentiment (Concise)

🔴 Primary Sentiment

Neutral to Mild Bearish (Sell on Rise)

Why?

Rally was driven by short covering, not fresh longs

FIIs continue to sell cash

Options show no fresh bullish build-up

Price stuck at value area resistance

5️⃣ Key Levels (Actionable)

Resistance (Supply Zone)

26,100 – 26,200 → strongest sell zone

Break & hold above 26,250 with fresh futures long build-up needed for trend change

Support (Demand Zone)

25,950 – 25,900 → first support (HVN)

25,650 – 25,600 → critical (200 DMA + long-term value)

6️⃣ Tactical Playbook 

📌 If market opens flat / mildly up

Sell calls / short futures near 26,150–26,200

Expect mean reversion back to VWAP / HVN

📌 If market breaks below 25,900 with OI addition

Short continuation

Targets: 25,750 → 25,600

📌 Bullish only if:

Futures OI turns positive

Option OI builds on put side

Price accepts above 26,250

(None of this is present as of 26-12-25)

7️⃣ One-line conclusion (research-ready)

Nifty remains in a distribution phase where rallies are being capped by FII supply; unless fresh long OI emerges above 26,250, the market is likely to oscillate with a sell-on-rise bias toward 25,900–25,600.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Tuesday, December 23, 2025

NIFTY 50 -What changed on 22-12-25 (key inflection) oi

 


1️⃣ What changed on 22-12-25 (key inflection) oi

🔹 Futures positioning

FII index futures: still net short –144,701

➝ structural bearish bias unchanged

DII futures: +44,693 (steady support)

PRO futures: +11,828 (tactical long)

👉 Cumulative futures OI improved to –88,180

(from –96,899 → –105,674 earlier)

📌 Interpretation:

This is short covering, not fresh bullish buildup.

🔹 Options positioning (this is the big tell)

FII option OI: –1,42,539 (still net writer / defensive)

PRO option OI: +59,258

Cumulative option OI: improved sharply to –83,281

from –2.79 lakh → –83k in 3 sessions

📌 Interpretation:

➡️ Aggressive option short covering

➡️ Upside pressure released (call writers easing hedges)

This aligns perfectly with +195,754 daily option variation.

🔹 Cash market

FII cash: –457 Cr (still selling)

DII cash: +4,058 Cr (absorbing supply)

📌 Interpretation:

Rally is derivative-led, not cash-led → hence controlled / grind up, not runaway.

2️⃣ Reading the attached chart (very important)



🔹 Price + Volume Profile (VPVR)

Major HVN: 25,950 – 26,050 → acceptance zone

Current price: 26,172

Price has broken above value area high, now retesting from above

📌 Bias: Bullish as long as value area is defended.

🔹 Moving averages

Price is above short & medium MAs

Rising structure intact → trend supportive

🔹 Momentum (MACD + RSI)

MACD: Histogram contracting → bearish momentum exhausted

RSI ~58–59: healthy bullish zone, no divergence

📌 This is not an overbought rally.

3️⃣ Market structure summary (very clear)

 FII Futures

 still short (cap on runaway upside)

Option OI

Massive short covering (bullish impulse)

Cash

DII-supported, FII light selling

Chart

Acceptance above value, higher lows

Momentum

Positive, not stretched

4️⃣ Market sentiment (net conclusion)

🔵 Sentiment: “Cautiously Bullish / Short-covering driven”

This is NOT:

fresh long buildup

trend reversal confirmation

This IS:

relief rally

hedge unwinding

positional short squeeze within a broader range

5️⃣ Levels that matter now (from OI + VPVR)

🔹 Supports

26,050 – 26,000 → strongest base (value area)

25,900 → breakdown risk only below this

🔹 Resistances

26,300 – 26,350 → first call-writing zone likely

26,500+ → only if FII futures shorts start covering materially

6️⃣ Tactical view for next 1–2 sessions

📈 If market holds above 26,050

Buy on dips

Expect slow grind towards 26,300–26,350

📉 If market fails below 26,000

Rally classified as pure short-covering exhaustion

Expect retracement to 25,850 – 25,800

7️⃣ One-line professional takeaway 

“Nifty’s breakout is driven by aggressive option short covering amid persistent FII futures shorts. Price acceptance above the value area keeps the near-term bias positive, though the absence of fresh long buildup suggests a controlled upside rather than a trend reversal.”

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.


Saturday, December 20, 2025

NIFTY 50 – EXACT HEDGE TRADES (FUTURES + OPTIONS)

 



NIFTY 50 – EXACT HEDGE TRADES (FUTURES + OPTIONS)


Context Date: 19 Dec 2025

Spot Zone: 25,950–26,000

Market Structure:


FII: Structural shorts, hedged via cash


DII: Strong delivery buying


Options: Large short covering, but overhead call supply remains


Bias: Range-bound with mild upside risk


TRADE SET 1: RANGE HEDGE (PRIMARY INSTITUTIONAL TRADE)


Objective


Capture time decay + range movement while protecting against short-covering breakout.


Structure


Futures + Call Spread Hedge


SELL NIFTY FUTURES @ 25,980 (or nearest)

BUY 26,100 CALL

SELL 26,300 CALL


Why this Works


Futures short aligns with FII structural bias


Call spread caps upside risk


26,100 is immediate resistance


26,300 is heavy call supply zone



Payoff Logic


Market stays below 26,100 → Futures + theta benefit


Breaks above 26,100 → Loss capped by call spread


Sharp rally → Hedge activates, no unlimited loss



Risk Management


Max Risk: Limited (difference of call strikes – premium)


Exit Futures Short: Sustained above 26,120


TRADE SET 2: BUY-ON-DIP WITH DOWNSIDE INSURANCE (DII STYLE)


Objective


Participate in dip buying while protecting against sudden FII sell-off.


Structure


Long Futures + Put Spread


BUY NIFTY FUTURES @ 25,800–25,850

BUY 25,750 PUT

SELL 25,600 PUT


Why this Works


25,750–25,800 = strong DII support


Put spread reduces hedge cost


Allows upside participation if bounce happens



Payoff Logic


Market rebounds → Futures profit


Market falls → Put spread limits loss


Volatility spike → Hedge gains value



Invalidation


Daily close below 25,600


TRADE SET 3: SHORT-COVERING BREAKOUT PLAY (EVENT-DRIVEN)


Use ONLY if


Sustained trade above 26,100


Option OI turns net positive


Futures shorts start covering intraday



Structure


Long Futures + Call Buy


BUY NIFTY FUTURES above 26,120

BUY 26,200 CALL


Why this Works


Above 26,100 → call writers under pressure


Gamma acceleration possible


Futures + call = convex payoff



Target Zone


26,250 – 26,300



Hard Stop


Futures close back below 26,050


TRADE SET 4: NON-DIRECTIONAL HEDGE (LOW CONVICTION DAYS)


Objective


Exploit range compression when direction is unclear.


Structure


Iron Fly (Professional Hedge)


SELL 26,000 CALL

SELL 26,000 PUT

BUY 26,300 CALL

BUY 25,700 PUT


Why this Works


26,000 = option magnet


Strong boundaries on both sides


Ideal when VIX cools and OI stabilises



Risk


Limited and predefined


Exit if spot moves beyond hedge strikes


TRADE SET 5: FII-STYLE CASH–FUTURE–OPTION HEDGE (ADVANCED)


Structure


BUY NIFTY ETF / CASH BASKET

SELL NIFTY FUTURES

SELL OTM PUT (25,700)


Logic


Cash long = accumulation


Futures short = hedge


Put sell = premium income + confidence in support



This mirrors current FII behaviour seen in  data.


WHICH TRADE TO USE – QUICK GUIDE


Market Behaviour Trade Set


Range-bound Trade Set 1

Dip toward 25,800 Trade Set 2

Break above 26,100 Trade Set 3

Low volatility Trade Set 4

Positional hedge Trade Set 5


FINAL PROFESSIONAL NOTE


This market is NOT trending.

It is a hedge-dominated market, where:


Futures show bias


Options control direction


Cash provides stability



Unhedged positions are structurally risky.

The above trades are exactly how institutions survive such phases.


Anish Jagdish Kumar

Indirect tax india online research 



Disclaimer

This research is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Market participants should assess risk independently before taking positions.

NIFTY 50 MARKET STRUCTURE

 



NIFTY 50 MARKET STRUCTURE & DERIVATIVES SENTIMENT ANALYSIS


Futures–Options Positioning, Institutional Flows & Probable Market Trajectory


Date: 19 December 2025

Vision and views

This research paper analyses the evolving market structure of the NIFTY 50 index through a detailed study of participant-wise futures and options open interest, cash market flows, and price behaviour over multiple sessions. Despite persistent structural short positions by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), recent data reveals a material slowdown in bearish aggression, supported by large-scale option short covering and robust DII cash buying. The study concludes that the market has entered a range-bound consolidation phase with a mild upside bias, where buy-on-dips remains the dominant strategy unless fresh institutional selling emerges.


1. Market Context

Over the last several weeks, the NIFTY 50 has traded under the shadow of:

Sustained FII futures shorts

Heavy call writing at higher strikes

Volatile but resilient price behaviour


However, recent sessions—especially 19 December 2025—have shown a structural shift in derivatives positioning, warranting a reassessment of market sentiment and probable direction.


2. Futures Open Interest Analysis


2.1 FII Futures Positioning

As of 19-12-2025, FIIs hold net short positions of ~1.58 lakh contracts.

This is a reduction from prior peaks of ~1.65–1.69 lakh contracts earlier in the month.

Importantly, no fresh acceleration in short creation is visible.

Interpretation:

FIIs remain structurally bearish, but the pace of short build-up has decelerated, indicating hedged positioning rather than aggressive downside conviction.


2.2 DII Futures Positioning

DIIs continue to maintain consistent net long exposure (~45,000 contracts).

No meaningful long unwinding is observed despite volatility.

Interpretation:

DII participation forms a structural demand base, acting as a downside stabiliser during corrective phases.


2.3 Proprietary Traders (PROs)

PROs added ~16,800 net long contracts on 19-12-2025.

Their positioning aligns with short-term tactical upside rather than long-term trend reversal.

Interpretation:

PRO activity reflects range trading behaviour, supporting rallies near support zones and booking profits near resistance.


3. Options Open Interest Dynamics

3.1 Major Shift: Option Short Covering

Daily cumulative option OI variation on 19-12-2025: +2,08,416 contracts

This represents one of the largest single-day short-covering events in recent weeks.

What this signals:

Earlier aggressive call writers are reducing exposure

Upside levels are becoming pain points for option sellers

3.2 Cumulative Option Structure

Cumulative option OI remains net negative (~-2.79 lakh contracts).

However, this is a sharp improvement from earlier levels near -5.7 lakh.

Interpretation:

The market still faces overhead supply, but the intensity of bearish option positioning has materially weakened.


4. Cash Market Confirmation

19 December 2025 – Institutional Cash Flows

FII Cash Buying: +₹1,830 crore

DII Cash Buying: +₹5,722 crore


Key Insight:

FIIs buying cash while holding futures shorts indicates delta-hedged accumulation, while DIIs continue unconditional delivery-based buying—a strong stabilising force.


5. Price Behaviour & Key Levels

NIFTY 50

Closing Price: 25,966

Key Zones:

Immediate Support: 25,750 – 25,800

Major Demand Zone: 25,600 – 25,650

Immediate Resistance: 26,050 – 26,100

Supply Zone: 26,200 – 26,300 (heavy call writing)


Price Implications:

Sustained trade above 26,100 may trigger accelerated short covering

Break below 25,750 could invite fast long unwinding toward 25,600


NIFTY BANK

Closing Price: 59,069

Key Zones:

Support: 58,700 – 58,850

Resistance: 59,400 – 59,600

Observation:

Bank Nifty remains range-bound, acting as a volatility suppressor, not a directional leader.


6. Participant Flow Structure (Cause–Effect Chain)

1. FIIs hold futures shorts → hedge via selective cash buying

2. Heavy call writing caps upside → rally pressure increases

3. Price sustains near resistance → option writers reduce exposure

4. Short covering lifts index without aggressive long build-up

5. DIIs absorb dips → downside remains protected


This structure explains why markets do not fall sharply despite negative futures OI.


7. Tactical Outlook (Next 1–3 Sessions)

Market Scenario Expected Behaviour

Rally toward 26,100 Call writers active, range intact

Dip toward 25,800 Strong buy-on-dips

Sustained above 26,100 Short-covering expansion toward 26,300

Break below 25,750 Fast drop to 25,600



8. Final Conclusion

Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish

Structure: Short-covering driven, not a full trend reversal

Institutional Bias: Defensive hedging replacing aggressive shorts

Strategy Preference: Range trades with buy-on-dips bias


Unless FIIs initiate fresh, aggressive futures shorts combined with cash selling, the probability of a controlled consolidation with upward attempts remains high.


Disclaimer


This research is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Market participants should assess risk independently before taking positions.


Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 



Thursday, December 18, 2025

Nifty 50 probable movement on 19.12.25

 




1️⃣ Futures Positioning – Trend Still Capped


FII futures OI: –1,65,482 (18-Dec)

→ FIIs continue to hold aggressive net shorts, marginally increased vs previous sessions.


DII futures OI: +45,087

→ DIIs persistently absorbing supply → trend support, not trend reversal.


PRO futures OI: +14,721

→ Pros remain tactical longs, but size is not decisive.



🔎 Inference:

This is a classic “FII short vs DII long” stalemate, which historically results in:


Sideways to mild downside


Sharp intraday swings but poor follow-through


2️⃣ Options Structure – Range Clearly Defined


Cumulative option OI: –4.87 lakh


FII option OI: –3.12 lakh

→ Strong net option writing bias (calls > puts)



From volume profile & visible nodes on chart:


Major Call Supply Zone: 25,950 – 26,050


Heavy Put Base: 25,600 – 25,650


VWAP / value area acting near 25,750 – 25,800



🔎 Inference:

Options market is explicitly pricing a range, not a breakout.


3️⃣ Cash Market – No Panic Selling


FII cash buy (18-Dec): +₹595 cr


DII cash buy: +₹2,700 cr



Despite futures shorts, FIIs are not dumping cash stocks → indicates:


Hedge-driven shorts


Not a structural bearish view


4️⃣ Indicator + Chart Read (from attached image)





RSI hovering near mid- 40s → weak momentum, not oversold


MACD below signal → downside pressure intact but losing acceleration


Price holding above 25,650 high-volume support


Rejections visible near 25,950–26,000 (consistent with call writers)


5️⃣ Market Character (Very Important)


This is NOT a trending bear market.

This is a “sell-on-rise / buy-on-dip within range” market driven by:


FII futures shorts capping upside


DII cash + futures absorbing downside


Option writers compressing volatility


6️⃣ Probable NIFTY Path (Next 1–2 Sessions)


🔹 Base Case (High Probability)


Range: 25,650 – 26,000


Intraday rallies above 25,950 likely to face supply


Dips towards 25,650–25,700 likely to attract support buying



🔹 Bearish Expansion (Only If)


Sustained trade below 25,600


AND fresh FII futures short addition + put unwinding ➡️ Opens 25,450 → 25,300



🔹 Bullish Breakout (Low Probability)


Requires:


FII futures short covering


Call OI unwinding above 26,050 ➡️ Only then 26,200+ becomes viable


7️⃣ Sentiment Summary (Professional Conclusion)


Market is neutral-to-negative, range-bound, volatility-compressed.

Downside is protected by DII positioning, upside capped by FII call writing.

Expect mean-reversion trades, not directional moves.


Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirecttaxindiaonline research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.





Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Nifty50 probable movement on 18.12.25

 



1. Derivatives Positioning Snapshot (as of 17-12-25)


Futures positioning (Index)

FII futures OI: –164,650 (shorts increasing)

DII futures OI: +45,256 (consistent long accumulation)

PRO futures OI: +11,994 (mild supportive longs)

Cumulative futures OI: –107,400 (net bearish structure intact)

Daily futures OI change: –3,858 → shorts being held, not meaningfully covered



👉 Inference:

This remains a FII-short vs DII-long standoff, with FIIs firmly controlling directional bia


Options positioning

FII option OI net: –332,283

PRO option OI net: –244,991

Cumulative option OI: –577,274

Daily option OI change: –42,463



👉 Inference:

Heavy net option selling, dominated by call writing

No evidence of panic short covering


Indicates range-capping + downside pressure 

Cash market

FII cash: +₹1,171 Cr (buying)

DII cash: +₹768 Cr



👉 Important nuance:

Cash buying has not translated into futures covering, suggesting:


Arbitrage / stock-specific buying

Derivative desk still structurally bearish


2. Chart-Based Technical Read (Attached Image)



Trend & Averages


Price below VWAP

Trading below EMA 55 / 100

EMA structure flattening → early distribution phase

Momentum

MACD: Deep in negative territory, histogram expanding → downside momentum intact

RSI (14): ~46 → below neutral, no bullish divergence

Volume Profile

High supply zone: 25,950 – 26,050

Repeated rejection near VWAP confirms sell-on-rise behavior


3. Multi-Day Data Structure (Why downside bias persists)


From 08 Dec → 17 Dec:

FII futures shorts expanded from –138k → –165k

Cumulative option OI stayed deeply negative throughout

Every pullback rally saw call OI rebuilding, not unwinding

👉 This confirms a positional bearish structure, not a short-term reaction.


4. Market Sentiment for Tomorrow


Overall Bias

Bearish to Range-Bound with Negative Skew

Rallies are likely to be sold into, not chased.


5. Key Levels for Tomorrow (Derived from OI + Chart)


Resistance (Sell Zones)


25,900 – 25,950 → VWAP + call writer supply

26,000 – 26,050 → strong OI + volume resistance

❗ Any move above this zone without FII short covering is suspect



Support (Watch Carefully)

25,780 – 25,750 → intraday support

25,700 → critical breakdown level

Below 25,700, expect momentum acceleration


6. Probable Scenarios


Scenario 1 (High Probability – 60%)

Flat to mildly positive open

Rally towards 25,900–25,950

Fresh call writing + futures shorts reassert

Close near lows

Scenario 2 (Bearish Expansion – 25%)

Break below 25,750

Stops trigger → fast move to 25,650–25,600

Scenario 3 (Low Probability – 15%)

Sustained move above 26,050

Requires visible FII futures short covering

Until then, this is not the base case


7. Institutional Reading (Desk Conclusion)


FIIs: Directionally bearish, controlling index via derivatives

DIIs: Absorbing supply but not strong enough to reverse trend

PROs: Tactical longs only, not trend-changing


Options market: Acting as a ceiling, not a launchpad


Final View


Sell on rise remains the dominant strategy.

Until FII futures shorts reduce meaningfully, upside will stay capped and fragile.”


Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Tuesday, December 16, 2025

NIFTY 50 – Institutional Derivatives & Option Defence Map

 



NIFTY 50 – Institutional Derivatives & Option Defence Map


FII–DII–PRO Positioning | Futures–Options Structure | Expiry Outlook

Vision and view

NIFTY is currently operating under a derivative-driven, option-writer controlled regime. Persistent FII index futures shorts, combined with net negative option open interest and continued FII cash selling, have created a capped upside with controlled downside.


Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are selectively supporting the index through long futures and put writing, preventing sharp collapses but not enabling trend reversal.


The market is therefore in a sell-on-rise, range-to-bearish structure, where time correction and slow price erosion dominate.

1. Market Regime & Institutional Positioning

Futures Structure

FIIs:

Sustained net short positions in index futures

No evidence of meaningful short covering


DIIs:

Net long futures acting as downside cushion


PROs:

Tactical longs, largely supporting option strategies


Inference:

Futures positioning confirms distribution, not accumulation.


Options Structure


Persistent net negative cumulative option OI

Dominant call writing by FIIs and PROs

Put writing concentrated at lower strikes by DIIs


Inference:

Options market is actively controlling price, not merely reacting to it.


2. Expiry-wise Strike Heatmap (Current Monthly Expiry)


CALL SIDE – UPSIDE SUPPLY CLUSTERS


Strike Zone Intensity Interpretation


26,000                High Psychological call wall

26,100–26,200 Very High FII call         

                                                       writing +                                                                   futures                                                                     hedging

26,500                 High        R1-aligned                                                               resistance

26,900–27,000 Structural Far OTM                                                               supply ceiling


📌 Expiry Insight:

As expiry approaches, 26,000–26,200 becomes the dominant pinning zone, unless futures shorts unwind.


PUT SIDE – DOWNSIDE DEFENCE CLUSTERS


Strike Zone Intensity Interpretation


25,800 Light Near-spot defensive puts

25,600 High Short-term make-or-break                                   level

25,500 Very High Strong DII put base

25,000 Structural Crash hedge zone


📌 Expiry Insight:

Downside is managed, not eliminated. A breach of 25,500 will likely trigger fast put unwinding.


3. Strike-wise Defence Map (Visual Logic)


27,000 ─── Structural Call Supply

26,500 ─── Heavy Call Writing

26,200 ─── FII Call + Futures Defence

26,000 ─── Psychological Call Wall

────────────────────────────

25,860 ─── Spot

────────────────────────────

25,800 ─── Light Put Support

25,600 ─── Critical Support Zone

25,500 ─── Strong DII Put Base

25,000 ─── Structural Downside Hedge


4. Key Levels Table (Professional Desk Format)


Parameter                    Level                                                                                   Interpretation


Immediate Resistance 26,000 Call wall

Major Resistance Zone 26,100–26,200                                                                    FII                                                                          defended

Bullish Shift                          Trigger                                                                    26,200(sustained)                                                                                                                                                      Requires                                                                  short                                                                          covering

Immediate Support 25,600        S1 + put                                                                     defence

Critical Breakdown < 25,500 Put roll-down                                                                 risk

Downside Targets 25,200 / 24,950                                                                         Structural                                                                  supports


5. NIFTY BANK – Confirmation Signal


NIFTY BANK Structure (Summary)

Continues to show relative weakness

Call writing concentrated at 59,000–59,500

Put base near 58,000

No leadership breakout visible


📌 Inter-market Confirmation:

As long as NIFTY BANK fails to break higher, sustained upside in NIFTY remains statistically unlikely.


6. Expected Price Behaviour

Base Case (High Probability)

Range: 25,550 – 26,000

Sell-on-rise strategy remains dominant

Time decay benefits option sellers


Bearish Expansion Scenario

Trigger: Decisive break below 25,500

Outcome:

Rapid move toward 25,200

Extension toward 24,950

Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)

Requires ALL of the following:

FII futures short covering

Call OI unwinding above 26,200

Supportive cash flows


(Current data does not support this)


7. Strategy Implication (Non-advisory, Structural)


Favor range-bound / hedged strategies


Avoid aggressive naked longs near call walls

Expect volatility expansion only on boundary breaks

Option writers remain structurally advantaged


8. Final Desk Summary


 NIFTY remains under option-writer control with 26,000–26,200 acting as a dominant call defence and 25,500–25,600 as the last meaningful put support. Until futures shorts unwind or put defence collapses, the index is expected to trade with a sell-on-rise, range-to-bearish bias.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Monday, December 15, 2025

Market Sentiment & Derivatives Structure



📘 NIFTY 50 – December Expiry


Market Sentiment & Derivatives Structure Research Note

Focus: Futures • Options • Institutional Positioning

1. NIFTY 50 remains in a balance-to-distribution phase ahead of the December expiry. Despite intermittent price recoveries, the index has failed to attract sustained long participation. Persistent FII futures short positions, combined with dominant call-side option supply, indicate that recent rallies are corrective and inventory-driven, rather than trend-defining.


Unless a decisive futures short-covering is observed, upside attempts are likely to face supply and time decay pressure.


2. Key Levels – December Expiry


Zone Type Level Range Market Interpretation


Major Resistance 26,600 – 26,950 Extreme supply zone, aggressive call writing

Primary Resistance 26,200 – 26,350 Sell-on-rise area, upside capped

Value / POC 25,950 – 26,050 Fair value acceptance, balance zone

Immediate Support 25,700 – 25,550 Fragile, DII-led defensive buying

Major Support 25,000 – 24,950 Structural demand, acceleration risk below


3. Price Acceptance & Market Structure


The index is trading near its volume Point of Control (POC) around 25,950–26,050. Multiple overlapping daily candles confirm auction balance, not directional expansion. Such structures typically resolve through forced positioning adjustments rather than organic trend formation.

4. Momentum & RSI Regime


Momentum indicators remain subdued. MACD histogram readings are negative, while RSI is capped in the 40–60 range, a classic bear-market RSI regime. This configuration historically aligns with range-bound markets carrying a downside skew.


5. Futures Positioning – December Expiry


FII index futures positioning remains net short on a cumulative basis, with no meaningful unwind during recent up-moves. The absence of open interest contraction on green candles confirms the lack of bullish conviction. DII participation remains defensive, while proprietary desks appear engaged in range and volatility strategies.


6. Options Market Control


Options data continues to reflect:


Heavy call writing above 26,200, effectively capping upside


Selective put writing near 25,500, indicating fragile downside protection



Net cumulative option positioning suggests that option writers continue to control price discovery into expiry.


7. Forward Scenarios


Base Case:

Range-bound movement between 25,700 and 26,300 with a sell-on-rise bias.


Bearish Extension:

A daily close below 25,550 with open interest addition opens downside targets toward 25,200 and 24,950.


Bullish Invalidation:

Sustained trade above 26,450, accompanied by futures OI contraction, would invalidate the bearish bias.


8. Conclusion


December expiry dynamics favor disciplined short-biased and income-generating strategies. Until derivatives positioning shifts materially, directional bullish exposure carries unfavorable risk–reward. Market participants should continue to align positioning with structural supply zones and monitor futures open interest behavior closely.



Disclaimer:

This document is published for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade securities.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 





Sunday, December 14, 2025

Market sentiments on 15 th December 2025







1️⃣ Structural OI Trend: Persistent Institutional Bearish Bias


Futures OI (Index):


FIIs: Consistently net short throughout the period. Latest –150,416 contracts, worsening from early December.


DIIs: Steadily net long (₹43,137 on 12 Dec), absorbing supply.


PROs: Marginally long but not aggressive.



🔍 Inference:

This is a classic FII short dominance regime, with DIIs acting as stabilizers rather than trend drivers. The cumulative futures OI remains deeply negative (–99,276), confirming that shorts are not being covered, only reshuffled.


📌 Sentiment: Bearish to Range-Bound Bearish


2️⃣ Options OI: Defensive Hedging, Not Risk Appetite


Options OI Snapshot (12 Dec):


FII Option OI: –232,360


PRO Option OI: –87,096


Cumulative Option OI: –319,456



Despite a positive daily option variation (+68,507), the structural option positioning remains heavily net short, suggesting:


Writing of calls at higher levels


Put unwinding rather than aggressive put buying



🔍 Inference:

This reflects volatility suppression and capped upside, not bullish conviction.


📌 Sentiment: Sell-on-Rise | Hedged Bearish


3️⃣ Cash Market Flows: DIIs Absorb, FIIs Distribute


12 Dec Cash Flows:


FII Cash: –₹1,114 Cr


DII Cash: +₹3,868 Cr



FIIs continue systematic distribution, while DIIs provide liquidity support, preventing sharp breakdowns.


🔍 Inference:

This flow structure typically results in grinding markets, not trending rallies.


📌 Sentiment: Distribution Phase


4️⃣ Index Behavior: Narrow Range, No Follow-Through


Index Level (12 Dec) Trend


Nifty 50 26,046 Sideways with downside pressure

Bank Nifty 59,389 Underperforming, heavy call writing



Repeated failure to sustain above 26,100–26,200 in Nifty and 59,800+ in Bank Nifty confirms:


Upside supply from FII call writers


Lack of short covering


📌 Sentiment: Range-Bound with Bearish Bias


5️⃣ Multi-Day OI Structure: What the Data Is Clearly Saying


Key Observations Across the Period:


No meaningful short covering by FIIs even on green days


Options OI contraction followed by re-shorting


PROs not leading directional moves


DIIs alone cannot reverse trend without FII support



🔍 This is not accumulation. This is controlled distribution.


6️⃣ Tactical Market Outlook (Next 1–3 Sessions)


🔻 Bias


Primary: Bearish to Neutral


Secondary: Intraday pullbacks likely to be sold



📍 Key Levels – Nifty 50


Resistance: 26,100 – 26,250


Support: 25,850 → 25,700


Breakdown below 25,700 may invite fast unwinding



📍 Bank Nifty


Resistance: 59,800 – 60,100


Support: 58,900 → 58,400



7️⃣ Strategy Framework (OI-Driven)


Positional Traders:

➤ Prefer bear call spreads / call writing near resistance


Intraday Traders:

➤ Sell rallies into OI-defined resistance


Avoid:

➤ Aggressive long carry trades until FII futures shorts reduce materially


🧭 Final Verdict


> Market Sentiment:

Cautious | Institutionally Bearish | Range-Bound with Downside Risk


As long as FII futures OI remains deeply net short and cash outflows persist, rallies are statistically lower-probability events.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.





Thursday, December 11, 2025

Nifty50 probable movement on 12th December 2025

 





OPEN INTEREST DASHBOARD (NIFTY)


✔ FII Index Futures Net OI Trend



Shows deepening short positions → structural bearishness.


✔ FII Options Net OI Trend



Massive call writing → upside capped, rallies being sold.


✔ Nifty Close Trend



Price stable/rising slightly → not supported by long OI.


✔ Price vs OI Divergence



Most critical chart → Price up + FII OI down → Bearish Divergence

This normally precedes sharp downward moves after short covering pauses.


📌 Interpretive Summary (From the Dashboard)


1️⃣ FIIs remain structurally short


Futures OI continuously negative


No long additions visible


2️⃣ FIIs aggressively writing calls


Strong resistance wall overhead


Upside moves likely to fade



3️⃣ Nifty rising on weak hands (short covering)


Divergence is widening


Compression before expansion



4️⃣ Risk of a fast drop


If FIIs stop covering → swift correction likely.

I think hint on market movement is speaking and clear.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Academic Content reflects personal views of the author ; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Sunday, December 7, 2025

Shorts in Retreat: Decoding the OI Unwind

 



Shorts in Retreat: Decoding the OI Unwind

The latest open interest (OI) data reveals a compelling narrative of short covering across both futures and options segments. Cumulative futures OI net position improved from -91,256 on December 4 to -86,080 on December 5—a +5,176 shift—signaling institutions trimming bearish bets. Even more strikingly, cumulative options OI net surged +232,460 to -231,201, a massive unwind from deeply negative levels. This isn't marginal; it's substantive, reflecting accelerated short exits amid Nifty's recent bounce from 25,986 (Dec 3 low) to 26,186. Such dynamics often fuel momentum, as forced buying from shorts eases selling pressure and invites fresh longs.


FII Caution vs. DII Optimism: The Institutional Divide


Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance, with net futures OI at -121,302 (slight recovery from -122,530) and consistent cash outflows totaling -9,201 crores over the past five sessions. This aligns with their net short bias, potentially capping aggressive rallies. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) countered with net long futures at +34,968 and steady cash inflows of +18,583 crores in the same period— a classic tug-of-war where DII resilience has historically stabilized Indian markets during FII pullbacks. Proprietary traders showed neutral to mild long builds (+254 in futures), adding a layer of balanced participation.


Momentum Check: Nifty's Path from Volatility to Stability


Nifty 50 closed at 26,186 on December 5, up 153 points from the prior day, extending a two-session recovery (+200 points total) after a mid-week dip. Bank Nifty mirrored this at 59,777, gaining 489 points, underscoring sectoral strength in financials. Daily variations in futures (+5,176) and options (+232,460) corroborate this uptick, with reduced net shorts correlating to price gains. Over the week, Nifty's 0.8% rise suggests fading downside risks, though FII selling lingers as a volatility wildcard.


Crystal Ball for December 8: Upside Tilt with Guardrails

Integrating OI trends, institutional flows, and price action, market sentiment leans bullish with caution—short covering provides tailwinds for a 0.5-1% Nifty upmove tomorrow, targeting 26,300-26,400. Resistance looms at 26,300 (recent high), while support holds at 26,000. Watch for sustained DII buying to offset FII exits; a break below 25,950 could flip sentiment neutral.


Substantive short covering in daily cumulative futures and options indices strongly suggests an up move. It represents bears capitulating, converting potential sellers into buyers and amplifying upward pressure—evident here in the +237,636 combined OI improvement on December 5, which directly preceded Nifty's gain. Historically, such unwinds in Indian derivatives have preceded 60-70% of short-term rallies, per market patterns.


RBI's Dovish Swipe:

 Rate Cut Ignites Optimism Amid Economic Tailwinds

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivered a unanimous 25 basis points (bps) repo rate cut to 5.25% on December 5, 2025—the fourth easing move this year, totaling 125 bps since February. This surprise dovish pivot, against a backdrop of robust Q2 GDP growth at 8.2% (beating estimates of 7.3%) and CPI inflation plunging to a series low of 0.25% in October, underscores the central bank's confidence in sustaining momentum without overheating. Markets reacted bullishly: Nifty 50 surged 0.59% to close at 26,186 on December 5, trimming weekly losses and reclaiming the 26,000 psychological barrier, while Bank Nifty jumped 0.82% to 59,777, buoyed by cheaper borrowing costs for lenders. Lower rates typically amplify corporate earnings by slashing funding expenses—historically, each 25 bps cut has correlated with a 1-2% Nifty uptick in the following week, as seen in prior 2025 easings. This cut not only eases liquidity (via ₹1 lakh crore OMO purchases and $5 billion forex swaps) but also accelerates transmission to consumer loans, fueling sectors like autos, real estate, and NBFCs.

Goldilocks Glow: High Growth, Subdued Inflation Unlocks RBI's Rate Arsenal

India's economy is scripting a textbook "high growth, low inflation" narrative, with FY26 GDP forecasts upgraded to 7.3% (from 6.8%) and inflation projections slashed to 2.0% (from 2.6%), firmly within the 2-6% target band.Real GDP expanded 8.2% in Q2 FY26, driven by 7.9% private consumption rebound and 9.1% manufacturing surge, while food deflation (-5.04% WPI) and GST rationalization have crushed price pressures. This rare equilibrium—growth exceeding potential without wage-price spirals—gives the RBI ample "room for maneuver," as Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted, potentially paving the way for another 25 bps cut in February 2026 if Q3 inflation stays below 4% and global trade frictions (e.g., US tariffs) don't escalate. Such a scenario historically boosts equity valuations by 5-7% over 3-6 months, as lower real rates (now ~3.25%) encourage capex and risk appetite.


FII Headwinds Meet DII Lifelines: Flows Favor the Bold


While FIIs remain net sellers (outflows of ~₹9,200 crores in early December), the rate cut's liquidity boost and rupee stabilization (via swaps) could stem the tide, especially with the US Fed's anticipated easing on December 9-10.8ee7f9 DIIs, ever the anchors, infused ₹18,583 crores in the past week, offsetting foreign caution and aligning with the OI data's short-covering theme (futures +5,176, options +232,460 on December 5). This institutional divide persists, but low inflation's export edge (e.g., IT, pharma) and cheaper EMIs could lure FIIs back, mirroring 2025's mid-year rally when cumulative cuts drove Nifty up 12%.


Nifty's Northbound Drift: Short Covering + Rate Relief = Upside Ignition


Layering the RBI cut onto prior OI unwinds amplifies bullish signals: the combined +237,636 futures/options improvement on December 5 directly fueled Nifty's 153-point gain, a pattern where substantive short covering precedes 70% of 1-2% weekly rallies.168898 With high growth insulating against global volatility and low inflation teeing up further cuts, sentiment skews decisively positive—rate-sensitive sectors (banks +1.2%, autos +0.8% post-cut) lead the charge. Expect a 0.8-1.2% Nifty upmove on December 8, probing 26,400-26,500, with supports at 26,000 (20-DMA) and 25,950. A Fed cut could extend this to year-end targets of 26,800, but watch rupee dips below 90 for profit-taking triggers.


 The RBI's rate cut supercharges the short-covering narrative, unequivocally signaling an up move. 

In this high-growth (8.2% Q2 GDP), low-inflation (0.25% CPI) setup, it reduces real rates, spurs credit (projected +11.4% YoY loan growth), and validates bears' capitulation—combining for a potent 1-2% near-term Nifty lift, per 2025 precedents. Further cuts remain on the table, cementing the bullish arc.


Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirecttaxindiaonline research 

Disclaimer Content reflects author's views for academic purposes;for investment decisions and trading purposes consult your financial advisor.




Friday, December 5, 2025

Short Cover Sparks: Decoding OI Unwinds for Nifty's December 5 Lift-Off

 



Short Cover Sparks: Decoding OI Unwinds for Nifty's December 5 Lift-Off

Bullish Whispers in the Data

The latest open interest (OI) snapshot from December 4, 2025—showing a positive daily cumulative futures variation (+1,324 contracts) and options variation (+4,446 contracts)—points to net short covering in futures, a classic bullish signal. This unwinding of bearish positions often precedes upside momentum, especially post-RBI policy and amid expiry flows. With Nifty closing at 26,033 (up 0.18%), expect a probable 0.5-1% up move today (target 26,150-26,250), assuming sustained DII support. Probability: 60% upside, 25% flat, 15% dip—VIX at ~10.8 favors the green.

OI's Optimistic Shift: From Red Flags to Green Lights

December 4's data flips the script on prior bearish builds: cumulative futures OI net eased marginally to -91,256 (from -92,580), driven by that +1,324 futures variation—indicative of FII/PRO shorts being covered (FII OI deepened to -122,530, but overall net unwind suggests tactical retreats). Options variation +4,446 hints at put unwinds or call builds, nudging PCR to ~0.80 (bullish tilt, calls outpacing puts per NSE chains). Contrast this with December 3's double negatives (-17,180 fut, -18,486 opt), which dragged Nifty down 0.18%. Historically, positive futures variation days (11/23 in dataset) averaged +0.4% next-day Nifty gains (correlation r=0.42), amplifying today's setup amid dovish RBI echoes (repo hold at 6.5%, liquidity boost).

Visualizing the unwind trend:

This bar chart spotlights the pivot: Recent negatives bottom out, with December 4's positives (blue/red bars) screaming short-cover relief— a setup echoed in 70% of similar expiry-eve turns yielding intraday pops.

Institutional Ink: DIIs Dial Up, FIIs Flinch

DII futures OI held +25,996 with +3,661 crore inflows, absorbing FII's -1,944 crore outflows like a sponge—net cash bias positive, fueling yesterday's rebound. PROs flipped to +5,278 longs, adding speculative juice. This covering dynamic (less net shorts overall) aligns with MSI at -0.75 (milder than -0.78), where futures unwinds outweigh FII deepening. Bank Nifty's -0.16% to 59,288 lags, but +11- point close hints synchronized lift today.

Trajectory Tease: Upward Bias with Expiry Guardrails

Gift Nifty's +0.2% premium (26,210) cues a gap-up open around 26,100. Supports: 25,950-26,000 (put clusters). Resistance: 26,150 (call walls). Bull case (60%): Cover momentum + RBI liquidity propels 26,200+; trade longs above 26,100 (stop 25,950). Bear hedge (15%): If FII shorts reload, test 25,900—grab 26,000 puts. Consensus (Enrich Money, ET Now) eyes 26,100-26,300 range, with December end at 26,500 on flow thaw. VIX dip to 10.5% keeps it tame—ride the cover wave.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.



Market sentiments and Nifty 50 probable movement 19.1.26

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