Nifty probable movement today

 1️⃣ Derivatives Positioning – What Big Players Are Doing

Futures OI

FII: Persistently net short and increasing shorts

→ –216k contracts (22 Jan), trend unchanged for weeks

DII: Steady net long accumulation (47k → rising)

PRO: Net long but not aggressive

📌 Inference

This is a controlled bearish market, not panic selling. FIIs are pressing shorts while DIIs are cushioning downside.

Options OI

Cumulative Option OI: –565k (very high negative)

Daily option variation (22 Jan): –59k

Indicates fresh Put writing exit / Call writing dominance

No meaningful short-covering yet from FIIs.

📌 Inference

Options data confirms trend continuation, not reversal.

Any bounce so far is technical, not structural.

2️⃣ Cash Market Confirmation

FII cash: –₹2,549 cr

DII cash: +₹4,222 cr

📌 DIIs are absorbing supply, preventing free fall, but trend control remains with FIIs.

3️⃣ Chart Reading – Daily Time Frame  

Trend & Structure

Price below key moving averages

Ichimoku cloud acting as dynamic resistance

Series of lower highs & lower lows

SuperTrend & momentum indicators → bearish continuation

Momentum Indicators

RSI ~34 → weak, not yet bullish divergence

MACD deeply negative, histogram expanding

Stochastic attempting curl up → minor bounce possible, not trend reversal

📌 This is a “bear-flag + pause” structure, not a bottoming pattern.

4️⃣ Key Levels (High Confidence)

Immediate Supports

25,160 – 25,120 → first demand zone

25,000 – 24,980 → psychological + OI zone

24,850 – 24,800 → breakdown target if panic resumes

Immediate Resistances

25,420 – 25,450 → intraday supply

25,600 – 25,650 → strong Ichimoku + OI resistance

25,800 → trend reversal only above this on closing basis

5️⃣ Probable Market Path (Next 1–3 Sessions)

Base Case (High Probability – ~65%)

Minor technical bounce toward 25,420–25,500

Followed by renewed selling pressure

Range shifts lower: 25,000–25,500

Bearish Extension (If 25,120 breaks)

Fast move toward 25,000 → 24,850

FIIs likely to press shorts aggressively

Bullish Reversal (Low Probability – <15%)

Requires:

FII futures short covering

Option OI contraction

Daily close above 25,650

None of these conditions are present yet

6️⃣ Market Sentiment Summary

Overall Sentiment:

🔴 Bearish with controlled downside

Nature of Market:

➡️ Not panic

➡️ Not bottoming

➡️ Sell-on-rise environment

Important Note:

Daily futures variation is positive, but this is not short covering — it’s position roll-over and intraday churn.

7️⃣ Trading Bias (Positional / Swing)

Bias: Sell rallies, avoid aggressive longs

Long trades: Only intraday scalps near 25,100 with tight SL

Trend longs: Only after 25,650+ close with FII support

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Nifty50 probable movement today

 

Detailed analysis of the Nifty 50 market sentiments and probable movement based on the  open interest (OI) data, combined with the attached chart ( 1-day timeframe candlestick chart of Nifty 50 , showing price action , with indicators like moving averages, support/resistance levels marked as S1/S2/S3, volume, RSI, and MACD). Let break it down step-by-step for clarity, focusing on key insights from the data and chart. Note that this is not financial advice—market movements are influenced by global cues, news, and volatility, and past data doesn't guarantee future results. The analysis is based on the data up to January 21, 2026 (the latest in dataset), and the chart seems to reflect intraday or recent closing levels around 25,157.50.

Step 1: Key Insights from the Open Interest (OI) Data

The dataset covers FII (Foreign Institutional Investors), DII (Domestic Institutional Investors), and Pro (likely Proprietary/Retail traders) positions in futures and options, along with cash market flows and index closings. I've analyzed trends over the last 10–15 trading days (focusing on January 2026 and late December 2025) for net OI changes, cumulative positions, and variations. Key observations:

Futures OI Trends (Net Positions):

FII Futures OI Net: Consistently negative and increasing in magnitude (e.g., -204,722 on Jan 21 vs. -193,097 on Jan 19). This indicates heavy short-selling by FIIs (bearish bias). Cumulative futures OI net is also deeply negative (-145,454 on Jan 21), showing FIIs are net short overall.

DII Futures OI Net: Positive and relatively stable (e.g., +44,267 on Jan 21 vs. +40,840 on Jan 20). DIIs are net long, acting as counterweights to FII selling. However, their positions are small compared to FII shorts, suggesting limited bullish support.

Pro Futures OI Net: Mixed but mostly positive recently (e.g., +15,001 on Jan 21), indicating some retail/proprietary buying. Cumulative futures OI net has been negative since mid-December 2025 (-145,454 on Jan 21), pointing to overall bearish institutional dominance in futures.

Daily Index Cumulative Futures Variation: Volatile but recently positive (e.g., +2,849 on Jan 21 after -5,607 on Jan 20). This suggests some unwinding of shorts or fresh longs intraday, but the trend is downward overall (e.g., sharp drop from +11,737 on Jan 2).

Interpretation: Futures data shows bearish sentiment driven by FII short positions, with DIIs providing mild support. High negative cumulative OI often precedes downward pressure unless unwound (e.g., via short covering).

Options OI Trends (Net Positions):

FII Options OI Net: Heavily negative (e.g., -424,137 on Jan 21 vs. -369,353 on Jan 20), implying FIIs buying puts (bearish hedging or speculation) or selling calls. Cumulative options OI net is negative (-506,066 on Jan 21), reinforcing bearish bets.

Pro Options OI Net: Negative and worsening (e.g., -81,929 on Jan 21 vs. -304,421 on Jan 20—wait, this seems like a data anomaly or shift; earlier days show variability). This suggests retail is also leaning bearish in options.

Daily Index Option Cumulative Variation: Positive recently (e.g., +167,708 on Jan 21 after -121,904 on Jan 20), indicating fresh put buying or call selling, which builds downside protection or bearish conviction. However, cumulative over time is negative and growing in magnitude.

Interpretation: Options data amplifies bearish sentiment, with high put OI buildup (common in uncertain markets). This could signal expectations of a drop, but if it's hedging, it might stabilize prices short-term. No major call OI buildup suggests limited upside enthusiasm.

Cash Market Flows (in INR Crores):

FII Cash: Consistently negative (e.g., -1,787 on Jan 21, -2,938 on Jan 20), showing outflows (FIIs selling in cash market, bearish).

DII Cash: Positive (e.g., +4,520 on Jan 21, +3,665 on Jan 20), indicating inflows (DIIs buying, bullish counterbalance).

Net Flow Trend: DII inflows are outpacing FII outflows recently, but FII dominance in volume keeps overall sentiment cautious. From Dec 2025 to Jan 2026, net institutional flows have been net negative.

Overall OI Sentiment Summary:

Bearish Tilt: FIIs are aggressively short in futures and buying puts, signaling expectations of downside (possibly due to global factors like US Fed cues, inflation data, or geopolitical tensions). Cumulative negative OI across futures and options (-145,454 and -506,066 on Jan 21) points to building short positions.

Mild Bullish Offset: DII longs and cash inflows provide support, preventing a freefall. Retail (Pro) is mixed but leaning bearish.

Volatility Indicator: Sharp variations in daily OI (e.g., options variation swinging from -121,904 to +167,708) suggest high uncertainty—markets could swing on news.

Historical Context: From Nov–Dec 2025, OI was less negative (e.g., cumulative futures -75,400 on Dec 2), but it deteriorated in Jan 2026, aligning with the chart's price decline from ~26,300 (early Jan) to ~25,157.

Step 2: Key Insights from the Attached Nifty 50 Chart (1-Day Timeframe)

The chart shows Nifty 50 price action in early 2026 (date range: 2026, likely Jan–Feb), with current levels around 25,157.50 (as marked). It's a candlestick chart with overlays like EMAs (e.g., green/red lines), support/resistance (S1/S2/S3 marked around 25,464–25,608 and 25,140–25,157), volume bars, RSI (around 27.89, oversold), MACD (negative histogram at -64.07 to -159.06, bearish crossover), and other indicators. Here's the breakdown:

Price Action:

Recent downtrend: From highs near 25,773.30 (possibly early Jan open), it's declined to 25,157.50 (0% change intraday, but -1.5–2% from recent peaks). Red candles dominate, with a sharp drop below key EMAs (e.g., 9/21-period MAs crossed bearishly).

Support Levels: S1 at ~25,464, S2 at ~25,608 (broken), S3 at ~25,140–25,157 (current price testing this). If it holds, bounce possible; breach could target 25,000.

Resistance: Immediate at 25,586–25,646 (recent highs); stronger at 25,773.

Volume: Increasing on down days (red volume bars), confirming selling pressure. Low volume on any green candles suggests weak buying.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 27.89 (in the lower panel, purple line), deeply oversold (<30). This often signals exhaustion of sellers and potential short-term rebound, but in downtrends, it can stay oversold.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bearish (orange/blue lines crossed down, histogram at -64.07 to -159.06). Negative values indicate momentum favoring bears, but divergence (if price makes lower lows while MACD flattens) could hint at reversal.

Other Indicators:

Bollinger Bands (implied by the chart's bands) show price hugging the lower band—volatility expansion downward.

The lower panel (possibly Stochastic or another oscillator) shows bearish bars (red/orange), but oversold levels (16.35).

Bank Nifty reference (not directly on chart but in data): Closing at 58,800 on Jan 21, also down ~1–2%, dragging Nifty (sectoral weakness in banking/financials).

Chart Sentiment Summary: Bearish short-term momentum with oversold conditions. The downtrend is intact (price below key MAs, broken resistances), but RSI/MACD oversold readings suggest possible mean reversion or bounce if support holds.

Step 3: Combined Market Sentiments

Integrating OI data and chart:

Overall Sentiment: Cautiously Bearish to Neutral-Bearish. FII short dominance in OI (futures/options/cash) aligns with the chart's downtrend and bearish indicators (MACD, volume). This suggests institutional expectation of further weakness, possibly testing 25,000–25,100 amid global risks (e.g., US markets, oil prices). However, DII support and oversold technicals (RSI <30) add a bullish undercurrent—retail/DII buying could cap downside.

Bullish Factors: DII cash inflows (+4,520 Cr on Jan 21), positive futures variation (+2,849), and oversold RSI/MACD. If FII shorts unwind (e.g., on positive earnings or RBI cues), sentiment could flip.

Bearish Factors: FII outflows (-1,787 Cr), heavy put OI buildup, negative cumulative OI, and chart breakdown below S2 (25,608). Bank Nifty weakness (closing 58,800) spills over to Nifty.

Volatility Expectation: High—OI variations and chart volume spikes indicate choppiness. Implied volatility (from options OI) seems elevated, favoring range-bound or sharp moves.

Broader Context: Nifty has fallen ~4–5% from Jan 2 (26,328) to Jan 21 (25,157), matching OI deterioration. Location (Indore, MP) might imply local cues like agri/commodity weakness, but global factors dominate.

Step 4: Probable Nifty 50 Movement (Next 1–3 Trading Days, Assuming Jan 22–24, 2026)

Based on the above, here's a probabilistic outlook (not predictions—use stop-losses and consult professionals):

Base Case (60% Probability: Mild Downside/Consolidation): Bearish OI and chart momentum suggest sideways to lower movement, testing S3 support at 25,140–25,100. Close around 25,000–25,150 if FII selling persists. Trigger: Break below 25,157 with volume. Bank Nifty could drag to 58,000.

Bullish Scenario (25% Probability: Rebound): Oversold RSI/MACD + DII buying could spark short-covering, pushing to 25,300–25,500 (towards S1 resistance). Trigger: Positive global cues (e.g., US rally) or OI unwinding (futures variation turns strongly positive). Target: 25,600 if volume picks up on green candles.

Bearish Scenario (15% Probability: Sharp Drop): If put OI surges further and support breaks, downside to 24,800–25,000. Trigger: Negative news (e.g., FII outflows accelerate) or MACD deepens negatively.

Key Levels to Watch:

Upside: 25,300 (pivot), 25,500 (resistance).

Downside: 25,140 (immediate support), 25,000 (psychological).

Stop-Loss for Longs: Below 25,100; for Shorts: Above 25,300.

Timeframe Note: On 1D chart, watch for EMA crossover reversal. If RSI bounces above 30, favor bulls.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Market sentiments and Nifty 50 probable movement 19.1.26

 

Market sentiments and Nifty 50 probable movement 

Market Participant Positioning – What the Data Clearly Says

Futures Segment (Index Futures)

FII:

Persistent and aggressive net short positioning

➤ Current cumulative FII futures OI ≈ –1.38 lakh contracts

➤ No meaningful short covering seen even on pullbacks

DII:

Consistently net long (≈ +41k contracts)

➤ Acting as a stabiliser, not trend initiator

Pro Traders:

Marginal long / neutral

➤ Tactical, not conviction buying

📌 Inference (Futures):

Trend control remains with FIIs (short bias). DII longs are absorbing supply, preventing sharp breakdown but not reversing trend.

Options Segment

FII Option OI: Deeply negative (≈ –3.18 lakh)

Pro Option OI: Also negative (≈ –2.03 lakh)

Cumulative Option OI: ≈ –5.22 lakh

📌 Inference (Options):

Heavy call writing + put unwinding, indicating range control from above and fear of sustained upside.

Cash Market

FII Cash: –₹4,346 Cr (selling continues)

DII Cash: +₹3,935 Cr (supportive but defensive)

📌 Inference (Cash):

This is not a distribution-to-accumulation phase, it is distribution with absorption.

2️⃣ Chart-Based Technical Read (1-Hour Timeframe)

Trend & Structure

Price below EMA 50 / 100 / 200

Ichimoku Cloud above price → strong overhead supply

VWAP acting as intraday ceiling

Bollinger Bands compressed → energy build-up

Momentum Indicators

RSI ~45 → weak, below bullish zone

MACD: Negative but flattening → bearish momentum slowing

ADX ~18 → Non-trending / range phase

📌 Inference (Chart):

Market is not bullish, but selling pressure is tiring → classic bearish consolidation.

3️⃣ Market Sentiment Summary

Aspect

Reading

Broader Sentiment

Bearish to Neutral

Trend Control

FIIs (Short)

Support Provider

DIIs (Cash + Futures)

Volatility Bias

Compression → Expansion likely

Breakout Probability

Low upside, higher downside

4️⃣ Nifty 50 Probable Movement (Next 1–3 Sessions)

Primary Scenario (High Probability – ~65%)

Range with downward bias

Resistance Zone:

👉 25780 – 25850 (EMA cluster + option writers)

Support Zone:

👉 25580 – 25520

📌 Expect intraday pullbacks to be sold near resistance.

Bearish Expansion Scenario (~25%)

If 25520 breaks with volume + OI addition:

Fast move toward 25380 – 25250

FIIs likely to add fresh shorts

Short Covering Bounce (~10%)

Only if:

Price sustains above 25850

Futures OI declines + Call OI unwinds

Then:

Bounce toward 25950 – 26000

Not trend reversal, only relief rally

5️⃣ Actionable Derivative View (Professional Bias)

Positional Bias:

👉 Sell on rise until 25850 is decisively crossed

Intraday Bias:

👉 Mean-reversion trades inside 25580–25800

Avoid:

🚫 Aggressive long futures

🚫 Naked long calls

6️⃣ Final Verdict (One-Line)

Nifty is in a bearish consolidation phase — FIIs firmly short, DIIs cushioning the fall. Expect range trading with downside risk unless 25850 is reclaimed decisively.

Suggested strategy 

For a 25900 CE BUY + 25800 CE SELL (i.e., Bear Call Spread):

1️⃣ Key Rule (Very Important)

👉 If Nifty drops to 25,400, both calls expire worthless.

So the spread hits MAX PROFIT.

But

👉 Max profit does NOT depend on how much Nifty falls.

It depends only on the net credit received while entering the spread.

2️⃣ Max Profit Formula

That’s it.

No further gain below 25,800.

3️⃣ Practical Example (Typical Intraday Premiums)

Assume (illustrative):

25800 CE SELL @ ₹72

25900 CE BUY @ ₹38

➡️ Net Credit = ₹34

✅ Max Profit

This full profit is realized anywhere below 25,800, including 25,400.

4️⃣ Payoff Summary

Nifty Level at Expiry

Outcome

Above 25,900

Max Loss

Between 25,800–25,900

Partial P/L

Below 25,800 (incl. 25,400)

MAX PROFIT = Net Credit

5️⃣ Important Risk Reminder

Do NOT wait for expiry intraday

Exit once 70–80% of credit is achieved

Gamma risk increases sharply near close

6️⃣ Professional Conclusion

If Nifty falls to 25,400, your 25800–25900 Bear Call Spread will give full profit,

which equals the net premium collected, not more.

Anish J Parashar

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views; for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

Nifty50 probable movement on 16.1.26

 

View and vision

 Structured, and professional analysis of Nifty 50 probable movement for 15 January 2026 based on:

✔️ Daily Futures OI (DII/FII/PRO)

✔️ Options OI (FII/PRO)

✔️ Cash Market (FII/DII)

✔️ Nifty 50 Daily Chart (Your Screenshot)

📌 1. MARKET SENTIMENT SUMMARY (14 Jan 2026)

A. FII Futures Positioning – Very Strong Short Bias

Date

FII Fut Net OI

12 Jan

-193,409

13 Jan

-197,655

14 Jan

-199,134

➡️ FII continuously increasing index futures shorts → sentiment remains bearish.

➡️ No signs of short covering yet.

B. PRO Futures Positioning – Reduced Longs

PRO Net OI dropped from +21,523 → +20,198

➡️ PRO are reducing longs → neutral to mildly bearish.

C. DII Futures Positioning – Consistent Long Build Up

DII Net OI: 41,069 (rising)

➡️ DII supporting declines → downside cushioning, but not reversing trend.

D. Options Data – Very Heavy Bearish Positioning

Date

FII Option Net

PRO Option Net

Cumulative

12 Jan

-271,572

-224,864

-496,436

13 Jan

-314,739

-200,012

-514,751

14 Jan

-324,061

-178,761

-502,822

✔ Deep short positions in options (Calls sold + Puts sold unwinding)

✔ Indicates high volatility expectation with downward bias.

✔ Large negative cumulative OI = net short volatility positioning → market expects further fall.

E. Cash Market – Heavy FII Selling Again

FII Cash: -4,781 Cr (selling)

DII Cash: +5,217 Cr (buying)

➡️ FII selling dominates.

➡️ DIIs absorbing sell-off, but trend remains bearish.

📌 2. NIFTY DAILY CHART – BEARISH STRUCTURE

(chart confirms the OI sentiment)

Key Observations from Chart

✔ Price trading below 20/50/100 EMA → bearish trend

✔ MACD → bearish crossover + widening gap

✔ RSI → 84 → falling sharply from overbought zone

✔ Chaikin Money Flow → deep negative → outflow pressure

✔ Candle structure → long red candles with weak pullbacks

✔ Ichimoku → inside/below cloud → no bullish reversal yet

➡️ Technically, trend is down, momentum is down, hence any pullback is sell-on-rise.

📌 3. PROBABLE NIFTY MOVEMENT FOR 15 JANUARY 2026

🎯 Bias: BEARISH TO RANGE-BOUND

Because:

FII Futures → heavy shorts

Options → massive short positions

Cash → FII selling

Chart → bearish

📌 4. KEY LEVELS FOR TOMORROW

Support Zones

Level

Importance

25540

Major short-trigger level

25480

Previous swing support

25350

Breakdown target

25280

High-probability target if FIIs continue selling

Resistance Zones (Sell Areas)

Level

Importance

25720

Immediate resistance

25800

Strong zone of call writers

25880

Short covering only if crossed

25940–25980

Trend reversal only above

📌 5. EXPECTED MARKET STRUCTURE

✔ Most probable scenario

Gap-down or flat open

Minor pullback towards 25700

Selling resumes

Breakdown below 25540 likely

Targets: 25480 → 25350

✔ If unexpected positive global cues

Rise till 25800–25850 possible

FII shorts will add fresh positions → market will again drop

Strong selling zone → short entries possible

📌 6. FINAL VIEW

Nifty 50 Sentiment Tomorrow: BEARISH

FIIs holding largest short positions in last 20 sessions

Technicals fully bearish

No sign of reversal

DIIs supporting, but not enough to reverse trend

Nifty 50 Expected Range:

25350 – 25800

Nifty 50 Probable Move:

➡️ Retest 25700 → fall towards 25480 / 25350

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author and for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Nifty probable movement today

 ✅ 1. MARKET STRUCTURE (CHART-BASED)

Price Action:

Nifty closed at 25,876, down 263 points (strong bearish candle).

Price has rejected the 26,200–26,300 resistance zone again.

The bearish candle has closed almost at EMA55 support.

Breakdown below EMA55 opens 25,650 → 25,450.

Indicators:

MACD histogram turned strongly red → momentum turning negative.

RSI = 44 → below midline, bearish but not oversold.

Chart Sentiment:

➡️ Shift from distribution to early downtrend.

➡️ Support: 25,810 → 25,650 → 25,450

➡️ Resistance: 26,050 → 26,200

✅ 2. DERIVATIVE SENTIMENT (DATA-DRIVEN)

(A) Futures OI: Institution-wise

08 Jan 2026

FII Futures OI Net: –167,347 (Bearish, +31k new shorts vs yesterday)

PRO Futures OI: +9512 (mild long hedges)

DII Futures OI: +37,569 (counter-trend long)

Cumulative Futures OI Net: –120,266 (deepening short build-up)

Daily variation: –10,441 (fresh shorts added)

📌 Interpretation:

➡️ FIIs are aggressively shorting stock index futures.

➡️ Net short now extremely elevated → FIIs clearly expecting more downside.

(B) Options OI Structure

08 Jan 2026

FII Option Net: –337,518

PRO Option Net: –290,887

Cumulative Option Net: –628,405

Daily Option cumulative variation: –304,759 (massive fresh short options)

📌 Interpretation:

➡️ FIIs + PROs heavily short both sides → expecting downside OR high volatility.

➡️ Very large net short suggests:

Call writing near 26,000–26,200

Put writing withdrawn → support shifting lower

This is typical of a trend-reversal phase from sideways to downward.

(C) Cash Market Flows

FII Cash: –3367 Cr (selling)

DII Cash: +3701 Cr (counter-flow buying)

📌 FIIs selling both cash + futures is a strong bearish alignment.

✅ 3. SHORT-TERM SENTIMENT SUMMARY

Parameter

Sentiment

FII Futures

Bearish (fresh shorts)

FII Options

Bearish (short Calls > short Puts)

PRO Options

Bearish

Cumulative OI Trend

Turning sharply bearish

Cash Market Flow

Bearish

Price Structure

Bearish candle, breakdown risk

Oscillators

Negative momentum

👉 Overall Market Sentiment = BEARISH TO STRONGLY BEARISH

✅ 4. PROBABLE NIFTY 50 MOVEMENT (Next 1–2 Sessions)

Most Probable Scenario – DOWNWARD BIAS

Given:

FII heavy short build-up

Large short in index options

RSI & MACD turning negative

Price breaking below EMAs

Nifty is likely to move towards:

🎯 25,810 → 25,650 (high probability)

If 25,650 breaks:

🎯 Next target: 25,450

🔥 5. Intraday Bias for Today

Sell on Rise towards 26,000–26,050

Short covering unlikely unless FIIs close shorts

Option writers defending 26,000 CE aggressively

Expected Range:

Upside cap: 26,050

Downside zone: 25,750 → 25,650

Break of 25,650 leads to accelerated fall.

✅ 6. Key Levels

Resistance:

26,050

26,200 (strong OI wall)

Support:

25,810 (intra-day)

25,650

25,450 (swing support)

📌 7. Final Conclusion

Nifty has shifted from distribution → breakdown attempt supported by:

Sharp FII futures short build-up

Very heavy FII + PRO option shorts

FII cash market selling

Bearish daily candle at EMA support

Momentum oscillators turning negative

▶️ Bias: Strong Bearish

▶️ Movement: 25,810 → 25,650 likely; 25,450 possible if panic extends.

▶️ Trade Plan: Sell on Rise; avoid longs until FII short unwinding appears.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views: for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

Market sentiment assessment & Nifty 50 probable movement for today (08 Jan 2026) based on:

Multi-day FII/DII/PRO Futures OI

Multi-day FII/DII/PRO Options OI

Daily cumulative OI variation

Cash market flows

Chart structure ( 15-min chart)

📌 1. MARKET STRUCTURE — TODAY’S CONTEXT

Price (Nifty Spot)

Yesterday close: 26,140

Strong intraday fall → late recovery bounce

Price trading below 55, 100, 200 EMA on 15-min → trend still weak

MACD turning positive from oversold region → short-covering underway

RSI at ~54 from oversold → early strength but not confirmed trend reversal

Conclusion (Chart)

→ Oversold bounce + short covering

→ Trend is not yet bullish, but downside momentum is reducing.

📌 2. DERIVATIVES – OI DIAGNOSTICS (Key Focus: 07 Jan)

A. Futures OI (Net Positions)

07 Jan 2026

DII Futures OI: +41,722 (Increasing longs)

FII Futures OI: –136,272 (Aggressive short buildup)

PRO Futures OI: –15,275 (Shorts)

Cumulative Futures OI: –109,825 → Heavy net shorts remain

Daily Change (Fut Variation): –3,638 → Fresh addition of shorts again

Interpretation

FIIs have NOT covered shorts → no directional reversal

DIIs supporting the market with longs but not enough

PROs remain short → intraday selling expected at resistances

➡ Underlying structure remains bearish.

B. Options OI (Net)

07 Jan 2026:

FII Options OI: –203,889 (Net short bias)

PRO Options OI: –119,757 (Both writing premium)

Cumulative Options OI: –323,646

Daily Option Variation: –125,121 (Heavy OPTION SHORTING)

This is VERY IMPORTANT:

→ When cumulative option OI = negative, it means net call writing OR put buying dominates.

→ Combined with price bounce → SHORT COVERING, NOT TREND REVERSAL.

C. Cash Market Flows (07 Jan)

FII Cash: –1,527 Cr (Selling continues)

DII Cash: +2,889 Cr (DIIs absorbing panic)

➡ DIIs protecting downside, but FIIs remain sellers.

📌 3. SENTIMENT SUMMARY

Participant

Futures

Options

Cash

Sentiment

FII

Heavy Shorts added

Net Option Shorts

Selling

Bearish

DII

Long buildup

Neutral

Buying

Supportive / Neutral

PRO

Shorts

Premium Selling

—

Mild Bearish

**Overall Market Sentiment:

➡ Bearish-to-Neutral with a short-covering bounce

➡ Trend reversal NOT visible

➡ Upside will face strong supply from FII short books**

📌 4. NIFTY 50 — PROBABLE MOVEMENT TODAY (08 Jan 2026)

Base Scenario (Most Probable)

📍 Short covering towards 26,250–26,300

📍 Strong supply at 26,320–26,360 due to call writers

📍 Intraday pullbacks likely near EMAs

➡ Expected Movement:

Positive opening → move to 26,250–26,290 → selling at higher levels → sideways-to-down afternoon

Bullish Scenario (Less Probable)

If Nifty sustains above 26,320 (key call wall) for >15 minutes:

Short-covering can push to 26,380 – 26,430

FIIs must stop adding shorts (not visible yet)

Probability: 35%

Bearish Scenario (Risk Case)

If Nifty breaks 26,080

Slide to 25,980 → 25,920 likely

Heavy FII shorts can accelerate fall

Probability: 45%

📌 5. KEY LEVELS FOR TODAY

Support Levels

26,080 – major support

25,980 – next support

25,920 – panic support

Resistance Levels

26,250 – first resistance (current bounce level)

26,300 – intraday resistance

26,320 – major resistance (FII supply zone)

26,360 – trend-defining resistance

📌 6. FINAL INSTITUTIONAL STYLE OUTLOOK

Nifty 50 is expected to remain in a short-covering upward bias early in the day, but the broader trend remains weak due to persistent FII short positions across futures and negative option OI. DIIs are supporting the market, limiting downside, but FIIs continue to dominate directional flow.

Movement Expectation:

➡ Upside capped at 26,300–26,320

➡ Downside supported at 26,080

➡ Likely sideways with upward bias early → selling-filled afternoon

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects author's views;for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

NIFTY 50 – Market Sentiment & Probable Movement

 

NIFTY 50 – Market Sentiment & Probable Movement (Daily Time Frame)

Views and Vision

Based on attached daily chart and the short-covering seen in daily cumulative option variation, here is a structured, desk-style assessment.

1️⃣ What the chart is saying (Daily TF)

Price structure

Nifty is trading around 26,180, above rising EMA 55/100, and well above EMA 200 → medium-term trend remains positive.

Recent candles show upper rejection near 26,250–26,300, indicating supply from call writers at higher strikes.

VWAP/Value area is shifting upward → buyers are not exiting aggressively.

Momentum

RSI ~55–56: Neutral-to-positive, no divergence → room for mild upside, but not impulsive.

MACD: Histogram positive but flattening → momentum improving, not accelerating.

👉 Conclusion from chart:

This is not a breakdown structure. It is a consolidation within an uptrend.

2️⃣ Interpreting “short covering in daily cumulative option variation”

This is the key part of  question.

What short covering in options actually means:

Reduction in net short option positions (mostly calls).

Writers are reducing risk, often due to:

Fear of upside extension

Volatility compression ending

Expiry proximity

What it does NOT automatically mean:

❌ It does not guarantee a trending rally.

❌ It does not ensure follow-through above resistance.

What it does imply:

Downside pressure is reducing

Range top is vulnerable to being tested

Market shifts from “sold into” → “balanced”

👉 Short covering opens the gate, but buyers still need to walk through.

3️⃣ Will this push Nifty to 26,250+ tomorrow?

Base case (Higher probability – ~60%)

Nifty tests 26,220–26,250

Supply emerges again from:

Fresh call writing

Delta-hedged selling

Market stays range-bound between 26,050–26,250

Bullish extension case (~25%)

If:

Opening sustains above 26,200

Call OI continues to unwind at 26,200–26,250

Then:

Fast move to 26,300–26,350 possible (short-covering fuel)

Rejection case (~15%)

If:

26,200 fails on opening

Call OI rebuilds quickly

Then:

Drift back to 26,050–26,000

👉 So yes — option short covering supports a test of 26,250,

👉 but not yet a confident breakout or trending move.

4️⃣ Why markets often stall after short covering

This explains many of the anomalies you’ve been observing recently:

Short covering = removal of sellers, not addition of buyers

After covering:

Market needs fresh longs

If they don’t come → price stagnates

That’s why:

“Data shows short covering, but price doesn’t move much”

This is absorption, not accumulation.

5️⃣ Key levels to watch tomorrow (Actionable)

Level

Meaning

26,000–26,050

Strong intraday demand / put support

26,180–26,200

Pivot zone (VWAP + OI equilibrium)

26,250

Max pain / call supply zone

26,300+

Only if call writers panic

6️⃣ Final desk view (one-line)

Daily option short covering reduces downside risk and allows Nifty to gravitate towards 26,250, but unless call OI unwinds decisively, the move is likely to remain range-bound rather than trending.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author ;for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Nifty 50 probable movement tomorrow & Trading desk guide

 

Market sentiments 

1️⃣ PRICE STRUCTURE (Daily Chart + OI Profile)

Spot Close: 26,250

Trend Context:

Price is above major medium-term supports (25,900–25,950)

Recent candles show loss of upside momentum near 26,300–26,350

OI Profile shows heavy volume concentration around 26,200–26,300 (HVN) → acceptance zone, not a breakout zone yet

Inference:

➡️ Market is in balance / distribution phase, not trending strongly.

2️⃣ FUTURES OI – PARTICIPANT BEHAVIOUR (KEY DRIVER)

🔹 Latest (05-01-26)

Participant

Net Futures OI

Interpretation

DII

+41,306

Structural long support

FII

-1,28,023

Aggressive positional shorts

PRO

-16,203

Short-term tactical shorts

Cumulative

-1,02,920

Net short bias intact

🔹 Trend Over Last 10 Sessions

FIIs consistently adding shorts, not covering

DIIs absorbing supply, preventing sharp fall

Result → Compressed range, failed upside follow-through

📌 This is classic “short dominance without breakdown” structure

3️⃣ OPTIONS OI – SUPPLY & DEMAND MAP

🔻 Option OI Snapshot (05-01-26)

Metric

Observation

FII Option OI

-2,13,258 (net short / hedge heavy)

PRO Option OI

-87,303

Cumulative Option OI

-3,00,561

Daily Option OI Change

-4,87,530 (aggressive writing / hedging)

🔹 What this means

Call-side supply dominant above 26,300

Put writers active only below 25,900

No aggressive put build-up at ATM → no directional bullish conviction

📌 Options market confirms RANGE + SELL-ON-RISE structure

4️⃣ CASH MARKET CONFIRMATION

Date

FII Cash (₹ Cr)

DII Cash (₹ Cr)

05-01-26

-36

+1,764

FIIs not supporting rally via cash

DIIs providing downside cushion only

➡️ Rally attempts lack fuel

5️⃣ MARKET SENTIMENT (COMPOSITE)

Component

Bias

Futures OI

Bearish

Options OI

Neutral-to-Bearish

Cash Market

Range-bound

Chart Structure

Consolidation

📌 Overall Sentiment

Neutral → Bearish (Range-Bound with downside risk)

6️⃣ PROBABLE NIFTY 50 PATH (NEXT 1–3 SESSIONS)

🔹 Base Case (High Probability – 60%)

Range Trade

Upper Bound: 26,300 – 26,350

Lower Bound: 25,950 – 26,000

➡️ Expect mean reversion within this band

🔹 Bearish Expansion (If triggers break – 25%)

Condition:

Spot sustains below 25,950

Futures OI rises with price fall

Targets:

25,820

25,700 (next OI demand pocket)

🔹 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability – 15%)

Only if:

26,350 breaks with

Futures short covering (OI ↓)

Call OI unwinding at 26,300–26,400

Then:

26,550 → 26,700 possible

(Current data does not support this yet)

7️⃣ KEY LEVELS – DERIVATIVE CONFIRMED

Level

Nature

26,350–26,400

Heavy Call Supply / Resistance

26,200–26,250

HVN / Balance Zone

26,000–25,950

First Support

25,700–25,820

Breakdown Zone

8️⃣ ACTIONABLE DERIVATIVE BIAS (Non-advisory)

Sell-on-rise preferred near 26,300–26,350

Avoid aggressive longs unless futures OI starts contracting

Intraday:

Above VWAP + Call OI reduction → scalp longs only

Below VWAP + Futures OI addition → short continuation setup

🧠 FINAL VERDICT

Nifty is not bullish, not crashing — it is being CONTROLLED.

FIIs are short, DIIs are absorbing, options are compressing volatility

NIFTY 50 – OI + VWAP  TRADING DESK GUIDE 

CORE RULE VWAP is the control line.

 Trade only when VWAP and OI agree.

 FUTURES OI + PRICE INTERPRETATION

 Price ↑ + OI ↑ = Long Build-up (Trend Up)

 Price ↓ + OI ↑ = Short Build-up (Trend Down) 

Price ↑ + OI ↓ = Short Covering (Relief Rally)

 Price ↓ + OI ↓ = Long Unwinding (Slow Decline) 

PRIMARY TRIGGERS

 1. Bullish Continuation

 Price above VWAP + Futures OI ↑ + Put OI ↑ + Call OI ↓ 

Action: Buy Futures / ATM Call, SL = VWAP

 2. Short Covering Rally

 Price above VWAP + Futures OI ↓ + Call OI ↓ 

Action: Scalp longs only till next call wall

 3. Bearish Continuation

 Price below VWAP + Futures OI ↑ + Call OI ↑ 

Action: Short Futures / Buy Put 

4. Long Unwinding 

Price below VWAP + Futures OI ↓ + Put OI ↓ 

Action: Avoid longs, prefer call selling 

OPTION CONFIRMATION RULE 

Below VWAP + Call OI ↑ = Strong Short

 Above VWAP + Put OI ↑ = Valid Long 

EXPIRY DAY RULES 

First 30 min: No trade unless OI expands one-sided 

Mid-session: Best for Iron Fly / Credit Spreads

 Last 60 min: Exit sellers if VWAP breaks with OI spike 

DESK MANTRA 

VWAP gives direction. OI gives conviction. No conviction, no trade.

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects author's views;for investment decisions and trading proposes consult your financial advisor.

DAILY CHART CONTEXT 

 • Medium-term consolidation after prior uptrend. 

• Price rotating around HVN zone 26,200–26,300. 

• Repeated rejection near 26,300+ 

confirms sell-on-rise supply. • No lower-lows structure – downside controlled, not trending.

 KEY DAILY LEVELS Resistance: 26,300–26,400 Control Zone: 26,200–26,250 Support: 26,000–25,950 Breakdown Risk: Below 25,950

 Market Read (as of 02-01-2026)

Net Bias: Cautiously Bullish → Buy-on-dips, not chase

The market is transitioning from a persistent FII-led short regime into a short-covering + option-driven upside, but FIIs are still not outright bullish. The rally is position-adjustment driven, not yet a clean trend reversal.

1️⃣ Futures Positioning – Who is Really Driving This Move?

🔹 Latest Snapshot (02-01-26)

DII Futures: +41,489 (Long build-up)

FII Futures: –1,30,246 (Still heavily short)

Pro Futures: –15,352 (Mild short)

Cumulative Futures OI: –1,04,109 (Net short)

Daily Futures OI Change: +11,737 → Short covering

📌 Interpretation

FIIs have NOT flipped long, but are reducing risk.

Rising index + falling net shorts = classic short-covering rally.

DIIs remain the structural support pillar.

👉 This is not FII-led bullishness yet. It is FII risk reduction.

2️⃣ Options Structure – This Is the Key Bullish Input

🔹 02-01-26 Options Data

FII Option OI: –87,939 (Covering shorts)

Pro Option OI: +2,74,908 (Aggressive long gamma / put writing)

Cumulative Option OI: +1,86,969

Daily Option OI Change: +3,43,575 (Strong expansion)

📌 Interpretation

Pros are clearly positioning for upside / range expansion

Option writers are shifting higher

This explains why dips are shallow despite FII futures shorts

👉 Options are currently overpowering futures shorts.

3️⃣ Cash Market – Quiet but Supportive

FII Cash: +₹289 cr (Neutral-to-positive, no panic selling)

DII Cash: +₹677 cr (Consistent support)

📌 Absence of FII cash selling is critical

Earlier declines were sharp because cash + futures + options were aligned bearish. That alignment is now broken.

4️⃣ Chart Read (Daily Time Frame – 

🔹 Price Action

Close: 26,328

Strong bullish candle breaking recent consolidation

Price comfortably above rising short-term averages

Long-term trend support intact (major MAs well below)

🔹 Momentum

RSI ~62 → Healthy bullish momentum, not overbought

MACD turning up with histogram expansion → Trend continuation signal

🔹 Volume Profile / Supply Zones (from chart)

26,200–26,250 → Acceptance zone

26,400–26,450 → Immediate supply (option writers likely active)

26,600+ → Only possible if FIIs reduce futures shorts sharply

5️⃣ What This Combination REALLY Means

Component

Signal

FII Futures

Still bearish (structural drag)

DII Futures

Strong bullish anchor

Options (Pro)

Clearly bullish

Cash Market

Supportive

Chart Structure

Bullish continuation

👉 Net Result:

📈 Upside continuation is possible, but capped and selective

This is NOT a runaway trending market. It is a controlled grind higher, driven by:

Short covering

Option writers shifting strikes

DIIs absorbing supply

6️⃣ Probable Market Path (Next 1–3 Sessions)

🔹 Base Case (High Probability)

Range: 26,200 – 26,450

Buy dips near VWAP / 26,200–26,250

Profit booking near 26,400–26,450

🔹 Bullish Extension (Only If)

FII futures shorts reduce below –1.0 lakh

Then 26,550–26,650 opens up

🔹 Risk Scenario

If index fails to hold 26,150

And option OI expansion turns negative

→ Expect a fast mean reversion to 25,950–26,000

7️⃣ Trading & Positioning Guidance

✔ Preferred Strategy

Buy-on-dips, not breakout chasing

Option spreads / call calendars preferred over naked longs

❌ Avoid

Aggressive overnight longs above 26,400

Shorting blindly while option OI remains positive

🧠 Bottom Line (Desk Conclusion)

“The market is rising because bears are stepping back, not because bulls have taken full control.”

Until FIIs flip futures long, treat this as:

Bullish bias

Tactical, not structural

Option-led, not cash-led

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor. In

Market Sentiment (as of 01-01-2026 close)

 

Market Sentiment (as of 01-01-2026 close)

Overall Bias: Range-bound to mildly bearish with downside risk on failure to reclaim supply zone.

Trend remains distributional, not trending.

View & Vision 

1️⃣ Futures Positioning – Who is carrying risk?

🔹 FIIs (Persistent Structural Shorts)

Consistently net short index futures for over a month

(−1.15 to −1.18 lakh contracts zone sustained).

No meaningful short covering even on rallies.

01-01-26: FII futures net −1,43,926 → confirms positional bearish conviction.

👉 Interpretation:

FIIs are selling rallies, not chasing breakdowns.

🔹 DIIs (Counter-trend Longs)

DIIs steadily adding longs (38k–45k range).

This explains why price is not collapsing despite FII pressure.

👉 Interpretation:

DIIs are providing price stability, not upside momentum.

🔹 PROs (Tactical, Not Committed)

PRO futures positioning oscillates, no directional dominance.

Indicates short-term trading, not trend creation.

2️⃣ Options Structure – Supply vs Demand

🔻 Cumulative Option OI (Still Net Negative)

Cumulative option OI remains deeply negative (−1.5 to −6 lakh range historically).

Indicates net call writing dominance over the entire rally.

🔁 Daily Option OI Change (01-01-26)

Daily option variation: −101,715

This is fresh call writing / re-hedging, not short covering.

👉 Interpretation:

Upside is actively capped, not being allowed to expand.

3️⃣ Price + Volume Profile (From Attached Daily Chart)

📍 Key Observations

Price near 26146, sitting inside a high-volume supply band.

VPVR shows heavy red (supply) nodes above price, especially:

26180–26250

Green demand pockets exist lower, but far apart, indicating:

Support exists, but momentum is weak.

📉 Candle Structure

Long wicks near highs → selling pressure on rallies

No impulsive bullish candle despite multiple attempts.

4️⃣ Momentum Indicators (Daily)

RSI ~56 → neutral, not bullish

Momentum flattening → loss of thrust

No bullish expansion phase visible.

5️⃣ Cash Market Flow (Confirmation)

FIIs consistently net sellers in cash (−₹3,000 to −₹4,000 Cr zone).

DIIs absorbing supply, but absorption ≠ breakout.

👉 This is classic distribution with support, not accumulation.

6️⃣ Market State Classification

Parameter

Reading

Trend

Sideways to Down

Structure

Distribution

FII Bias

Strongly Bearish

DII Role

Cushioning

Option Writers

In Control

Breakout Probability

Low

Breakdown Probability

Conditional

7️⃣ Actionable View (Professional)

🔴 Primary Scenario (Higher Probability)

Sell on rise into 26180–26250

Expect mean reversion back towards demand zones.

🟢 Alternate Scenario (Lower Probability)

Sustained close above 26250 + option short covering

Only then upside opens to 26400+

Until then, rallies are hedged rallies.

8️⃣ Summary in One Line

“Nifty is being supported from below but capped from above — FIIs are distributing risk, option writers are defending supply, and price is trapped in a controlled

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer:Content reflects personal views of the author; for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor.

Nifty50 market sentiments

 

Market Sentiment – NIFTY 50 (as of 31-12-25)

Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish with Overhead Supply

Trend is attempting continuation, but FIIs remain structurally short and the up-move is currently driven by option-side short covering + DII support, not by fresh FII futures longs.

1️⃣ Futures Positioning – Who is Really Driving the Move?

🔹 Latest (31-12-25)

DII Futures OI: +37,984 → Consistent long accumulation

FII Futures OI: -145,886 → Persistent structural shorts

PRO Futures OI: -7,944 → Light short bias

Cumulative Futures OI: -115,846

🔍 Interpretation

Despite price holding above 26,000, FIIs have NOT covered futures shorts.

This implies:

Rally is not a conviction trend yet

FIIs are allowing price to move up via options re-hedging, not futures covering.

👉 Classic “relief rally / squeeze-led” structure, not trend validation.

2️⃣ Options OI – The Key Change (This is Important)

🔹 31-12-25 Snapshot

FII Option OI: -226,293 → Net short options (calls dominance)

PRO Option OI: +171,402 → Aggressive option long build-up

Cumulative Option OI: -54,891

Daily Option OI Change: +291,136 (Strong positive swing)

🔍 What Changed vs Prior Days?

Until 30-12-25, options OI was deeply negative (heavy call writing).

On 31-12-25:

Sharp positive daily option OI change

Indicates call short covering / put writing below price

👉 This explains the impulsive up candle on the daily chart.

3️⃣ Chart + VPVR / OI Bars (Right Side) – Supply & Demand Zones

From the attached daily chart:

🟢 Green OI Bars (Demand / Acceptance)

25,900 – 26,050 → Strong HVN

25,750 – 25,820 → Secondary demand pocket

These zones align with:

Prior consolidation

DII long buildup

Value acceptance (VPVR support)

structural support base

🔴 Red OI Bars (Supply / Call Defense)

26,200 – 26,250

26,350 – 26,450

These levels show:

Fresh call writing

Overhead supply by FIIs

Likely zones of time correction / rejection

👉 Upside is not free-flowing yet.

4️⃣ Momentum & Structure Read (Daily Timeframe)

Price holding above short-term VWAP & rising averages

RSI ~ 56 → Healthy, but not overbought

MACD histogram still shallow → Momentum is improving, not explosive

This confirms:

Up-move is positional repair, not aggressive trend expansion.

5️⃣ Cash Market Context (Silent but Crucial)

FII Cash: -₹3,597 cr (selling continues)

DII Cash: +₹6,759 cr (absorbing supply)

👉 Index is being supported, not chased.

🔑 Market Sentiment Summary (Actionable)

Aspect

Reading

Trend

Mild Bullish

Strength

Short-covering led

Risk

FII futures shorts intact

Support

25,900 – 26,050

Resistance

26,200 → 26,450

Breakout Confirmation

Only above 26,450 with futures short covering

🎯 Probable Scenarios Ahead

✅ Bullish Continuation (Conditional)

Holds above 26,000

Option OI stays positive

Futures OI contraction continues

➡️ Target: 26,350 – 26,450

⚠️ Rejection / Range Play (More Likely Short-Term)

Failure near 26,200–26,250

Call writing re-emerges

FIIs add fresh futures shorts

➡️ Pullback to 26,050 / 25,900

🧠 Final Verdict

Market is in a “controlled bullish squeeze”, not a breakout trend.

Buy dips near demand zones, avoid chasing highs until FIIs show futures short covering

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india online research 

Disclaimer Content reflects personal views of the author   for trading and investment purposes consult with your financial advisor and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.